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| Thursday, November 4, 2021 |
| Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six Newsletter! This is the first of four editions that will be coming out today. Just kidding, there's not going to be four different newsletters, but there probably should be, because I'm pretty sure that's the only way we could cram in all the news that's happened in the NFL over the past 24 hours. It has been bonkers. |
| Are the Browns done with Odell Beckham Jr.? Did Aaron Rodgers violate the NFL's COVID protocols, and if so, will he get punished? Could the Jets actually upset the Colts? Those are some of the questions we'll be attempting to answer today, so let's get to the rundown. |
| As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. |
| 1. Today's show: Jets-Colts betting preview |
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| If you're planning on betting any money on tonight's game, then you're going to want to make sure to listen to today's episode of the podcast before you place any bets. For today's show, Will Brinson brought on CBSSports writer Tyler Sullivan, and the two went into full gambling mode. |
| Here are several props they like for the game: |
| Carson Wentz OVER 1.5 TD passes (-140). The Colts QB has gone over this number in five straight games and there's no reason to think that streak is going to stop against a Jets defense that has given up the sixth-most passing yards per game this year. Michael Carter OVER 38.5 receiving yards (-110). One reason Mike White was so successful last week was because he kept checking down to Michael Carter. During the Jets' upset win over the Bengals, Carter had nine catches for 95 yards. He might not hit that number this week, but if he just gets half of it, the over will hit here. Michael Pittman OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-115). Pittman has slowly turned into Wentz's favorite receiver. Over the past four weeks, Pittman has averaged 78.8 receiving yards per game and has gone over 68.5 in three of the four weeks, which makes the over seem like a smart bet. Long shot prop: Mo Alie-Cox to score the first TD of the game (+1500). Alie-Cox already has four touchdown catches on the season, which is tied for the most on the team. Basically, he's one of the first targets Wentz looks for whenever Indy gets into the red zone. The fact that this prop pays out $150 on a $10 bet definitely gives it some nice value. |
| For more props and their actual predictions for tonight's game, be sure to click here so you can listen to today's episode. If you'd rather watch today's show, you can now do that on YouTube by clicking here! |
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| 2. Thursday night preview: Prepping you for Jets at Colts |
| If you would have asked me who was going to win this game five days ago, I would have said the Colts by 40. But thanks to the Jets' upset win over the Bengals in Week 8, this game feels slightly more interesting. |
| My good buddy Jared Dubin put together our deep-dive preview for this game at CBS Sports, and here's how he sees it playing out: |
| Why the Jets can win: This all comes down to Mike White. If the Jets new quarterback plays anything like he did against the Bengals in Week 8, then New York is going to have a chance to win this game. The good news for the Jets is that this is completely possible because they didn't ask White to do too much against Cincinnati. On his 405-yard day, White checked down most of his passes and if Indy lets him do that again, the Jets might be able to pull off the upset. Why the Colts can win: This feels like a game the Colts should win, but one thing they can't afford against the Jets is for Carson Wentz to make any back-breaking mistakes. The Colts quarterback had two ugly interceptions against the Titans, including a pick-six in the fourth quarter. If he makes a mistake like that against the Jets, things could get interesting. However, if the Colts can avoid making any mistakes, they should be able to coast to a win. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here. The Colts are currently favored by 10.5 points, which is definitely worth noting, because the Jets were also 10.5-point underdogs against the Bengals. |
Dubin's pick: Colts 24-17 over Jets.
My pick: Colts 30-20 over Jets. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, Tyler Sullivan put together a full gambling preview. |
| ONE PROP TYLER LIKES: Carson Wentz UNDER 245.5 passing yards (-115): "Wentz has gone under this passing yards total in five of his last six games. As a double-digit home favorite, this could be a game where Wentz and the Colts have this lead in hand early and have the offense turn more to a ground attack, thus limiting his passing opportunities."ONE PROP I LIKE: Michael Badgley OVER 1.5 field goals (-115): The Jets are surrendering 2.7 field goals per game this year, which is the most in the NFL heading into Week 9. One reason that number is so high is because their defense has done a good job of keeping teams out of the end zone once they reach the red zone. Although Badgley has yet to go over 1.5 this season -- he has one field goal in each of his past three games -- this feels like the game where he finally gets to two. |
| You can check out Sullivan's full gambling preview by clicking here. |
| 3. Browns might be done with Odell Beckham Jr. |
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| It appears that Odell Beckham Jr.'s time in Cleveland is soon going to be coming to an end. According to a report from Mike Silver, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski told the team Wednesday morning that Beckham is "essentially not on the team right now" and that the team has asked him to stay at home. |
| Here's what we know about the situation: |
The drama with Odell started Tuesday. Just hours before the trade deadline, Odell's dad released a video on Instagram that basically bashed Baker Mayfield for never throwing the ball to his son. The video highlighted several times this season where Odell was overthrown or situations where Odell was open but Baker didn't throw him the ball. LeBron James also tweeted at the Browns to "free" Odell, and it's unlikely either of these things happened without Odell knowing. Basically, Odell made it clear he wanted to be traded without saying he wanted to be traded.
Baker Mayfield's reaction to the video. The Browns QB said he was surprised about the video posted by Odell's dad, but also added there wouldn't be any bad blood between him and Beckham if the receiver returns to the Browns, "If he's back, then we'll work through it and do whatever it takes. I can put my ego and pride to the side to win. Because that's all I care about is winning. If not, then we'll roll with the guys we have out there."Things got ugly Wednesday. According to CBS Sports NFL Insider Josina Anderson, Odell actually wanted to attend practice Wednesday, but the team told him to stay home. Odell has also been told to stay away from Thursday's practice, which means it's highly unlikely he's going to play against the Bengals and it's highly likely he's played his final snap with the Browns, as Silver noted. Stefanski doesn't deny Silver's report. The most telling part about Odell's future came Wednesday afternoon when the Browns coach was asked during a press conference if he told his players that Odell wasn't part of the team anymore, "I would just tell you, again, today he's excused, and we'll see where this goes." A head coach will usually try to downplay any drama, but Stefanski made no effort to do that. Stefanski also noted that Browns GM Andrew Berry is trying to work something out with Odell's reps.
Is Odell definitely done in Cleveland? The answer here seems to be yes. The Browns only have three options moving forward: They can suspend him for conduct detrimental to the team, cut him, or ask him to stay away from the facility but keep paying him (similar to what the Texans are doing with Deshaun Watson). However, if Beckham WANTS to be at practice, the Browns aren't allowed to keep him away for an extended period of time. (If they suspend him for conduct detrimental to the team, they can only do that for up to four weeks.) Basically, this means the most practical solution is for the Browns to cut him. If that happens, he'll be subject to waivers, which means any NFL team would be able to claim him. As for a possible trade, since the deadline has past, the Browns wouldn't be allowed to make a deal until the next league year starts on March 16, 2022. |
| If you want to know where Odell might land, you can check out these 10 potential landing spots from Cody Benjamin. |
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| 4. Details on the Aaron Rodgers situation |
| The Packers star quarterback won't be on the field this week against the Chiefs after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Wednesday. The fact that Rodgers got ruled out of the game came as a huge surprise to a lot of people, and that's because he insinuated back in August that he was vaccinated. (If he was vaccinated, he would still have a chance to play this weekend even if he was on the COVID list.) |
| Here's the latest on Rodgers situation: |
| Rodgers never got vaccinated. On Aug. 26, Rodgers was asked whether he was vaccinated and replied by saying he was "immunized." According to NFL.com , Rodgers "received a homeopathic treatment from his personal doctor to raise his antibody levels" and hoped that would be enough to give him the same status as a vaccinated player. However, the NFL shot down his request, so Rodgers is officially viewed as unvaccinated in the eyes of the league. Did he break COVID protocols? The simple answer here is yes. As an unvaccinated player, Rodgers was supposed to be wearing a mask during all indoor interviews, but he definitely hasn't been doing that. Unvaccinated players also aren't supposed to travel on the team charter to away games, which Rodgers has done multiple times this season. Also, unvaccinated players are "prohibited from gathering in groups of more than three team-affiliated individuals outside the team facility," and it's very possible Rodgers also broke that rule. The Packers QB was at a team Halloween party over the weekend and there were multiple players there. Could he be punished? The NFL is currently investigating the situation and as of right now, it sounds like if anyone is going to get punished, it's going to be the Packers. Here's what the NFL's statement said, "The primary responsibility for enforcement of the Covid protocols within club facilities rests with each club. Failure to properly enforce the protocols has resulted in discipline being assessed against individual clubs in the past." However, players can be fined or suspended for multiple violations. As for the team, the Packers could be fined or docked a draft pick. When will he return? Since Rodgers has to sit out at least 10 days, the earliest he could come back is Nov. 13, which means if he wants to play in Week 10 against the Seahawks, he'll be playing the game after a week where he got zero practice time. Of course, if Rodgers shows any symptoms, he could be out even longer, which means there's a chance he could miss two games (Weeks 9 and 10). |
| The bottom line is that this is a situation that might get worse before it gets better for the Packers. |
| 5. Details on the Henry Ruggs III case |
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| The Clark County prosecutor in charge of Henry Ruggs III's case released some startling details about the deadly crash that the former Raiders receiver caused Tuesday morning. |
| Here's what we know about the situation: |
| According to the prosecutor, Ruggs was traveling at a speed of 156 mph just before the crash. The speed limit in the area ranged from 30 to 45 mph, so Ruggs was going at least 110 mph over it when the crash happened. The former Raiders receiver also had a blood alcohol content of .161 on the night of the crash, which is more than twice the legal limit. The bail for Ruggs was set at $150,000. Although Ruggs hasn't been officially charged yet, he was taken into custody on suspicion of DUI resulting in substantial bodily harm or death and reckless driving. According to ESPN.com, Clark County District Attorney Steve Wolfson also said that Ruggs could face a second felony DUI charge related to the injuries to his girlfriend. If he's hit with the second felony charge, Ruggs could be facing a maximum of 46 years in prison. The victim who died in the crash has been identified as Tina Tintor. The 23-year-old was driving a Toyota RAV4 and appeared to be headed to her home, which was located less than three miles from Ruggs' house, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The impact of the crash was so hard that Tintor's car was sent hurtling more than 570 feet down the street. |
| According to police, Ruggs had spent some time drinking at Top Golf on the night of the crash. The former Raiders receiver had even sent a text to Derek Carr just three hours before the tragedy took place. |
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| 6. Rapid-fire roundup |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Packers expected to sign Blake Bortles. With the Packers down to just one quarterback this week (Jordan Love), the team decided to bring in a familiar face. Bortles will likely be serving as the backup QB for Green Bay's game at Kansas City this week. Kyler Murray will likely be a game-time decision. The Cardinals QB suffered an ankle injury in Week 8 and it's bad enough that he's likely going to be a game-time decision this week against the 49ers. Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury said Murray is still working back from the injury, but couldn't guarantee that his star QB would play this week. A.J. Green on COVID list. After costing Arizona the game in Week 8, Green won't get to redeem himself in Week 9 and that's because he's likely not going to be playing this week. Green has been placed on the COVID list. However, since he's vaccinated, he could be on the field Sunday if he records two negative tests that are taken 24 hours apart. Cowboys to wear a red stripe on their helmet. The Cowboys have only worn a red stripe on their helmet once in franchise history and that came all the way back in 1976. The red stripe will be returning this week as part of the team's Salute to Service game. The new stripe means that the Cowboys' stripes will be red, white and blue on Sunday. Washington's Montez Sweat out for a month. The Football Team's star pass rusher will miss at least the next four games after fracturing his jaw in Week 8. According to NFL.com, Sweat won't need surgery, but he won't be able to play until the jaw heals. |
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