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| Friday, August 14, 2020 |
| Good morning! We're now officially less than four weeks away from the start of the NFL season, and players will be putting on pads and doing contact drills beginning this weekend at training camp. That means we're about to be inundated with position battle updates, coach speak, and injuries — those training camp annoyances that send Fantasy players into a tizzy. |
| Before we get to all that, though, we've got to finish up our preview of the wide receiver position, and that's what we're focusing on today. Specifically, the FFT team is focusing on our favorite breakout picks and biggest bust risks, plus how to properly value upside and downside at the wide receiver position. These are the picks who will make or break your season, so you'll want to see what Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings and Ben Gretch have to say. |
| And if you disagree with us, let me know. Shoot off an email to [email protected] and I'll publish some of the best rebuttals to our picks next week. We need you all to keep us in check, after all. |
| Closing out WR preview week |
| WR Breakouts |
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| The best way to think about breakouts is they're your chance to get multiple first-round picks. Those of you who were able to pair Chris Godwin or Kenny Golladay (or, realistically, maybe both) with an early-round receiver were probably some of the biggest winners in 2019. |
| That's what we're looking for here, and it was nice to hear Jamey Eisenberg back up my biggest breakout pick on Friday's episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast. In Part Two of the wide receiver preview, Jamey had this to say about JuJu Smith-Schuster: |
| "I do think he can be better than he was before. This is what we said about him last year: He could lead the league in targets and take a step up — not a significant step up from where he was, because that would be hard to do, but enough of one — that he's a guy who could be top-three. … I wouldn't be surprised if he was the No. 1 receiver in PPR." |
| Smith-Schuster's assumed breakout was derailed by Ben Roethlisberger's injury last season, but I'm still buying into the talent and the situation. Even better at a discount! Check out why I like JuJu so much, along with the rest of our breakout picks for 2020. |
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| WR Busts |
| Here's the thing: Nobody enjoys this part of the job where we try to tell you who won't have a good season. If we're right, a bunch of Fantasy players are disappointed; if we're wrong, we look bad. It's a no-win situation. |
| But we have to be realistic: Even the very best Fantasy players don't always hit. Knowing where to look for red flags can help you get the most out of your team, and here's who were most worried about at wide receiver: |
| Jamey: "I'm not ready to buy back in on Odell Beckham being a top-tier Fantasy option again. He struggled in 2019, battling injuries and did not appear to have a great rapport with Baker Mayfield on the field." Dave: "The only quarterback Keenan Allen has ever known in the NFL is Philip Rivers. He's gone. Even if (when?) Tyrod Taylor is replaced by rookie Justin Herbert, Allen still figures to deal with uneven play. Given the quarterback issues, it's a long shot for Allen to hit 1,000 yards for the fourth straight year." Heath: "DeAndre Hopkins is currently the fifth receiver off the board, and that's terrifying to me. Last year's 7.8 yards per target was the second-lowest mark of Hopkins' career, and that matters because he figures to see a serious reduction in targets." Ben: "Adam Thielen will be 30 this year, is coming off soft tissue injuries last season, and his path to upside resides in dominating targets and his offense throwing more than expected. If I'm going to stomach team volume concerns, I'd look at younger, frequently cheaper options like A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs. |
| Check out the rest of the biggest risks here and tune in to CBS Sports HQ at noon EST Friday as the guys debate their bust calls and check in on Titans camp. |
| Upside. vs. Downside |
| In our latest mock draft, I made a choice that might raise some eyebrows: I took D.J. Moore over Chris Godwin. Partially, that's because of my previously stated concerns about the Bucs' offense, but it's also partially because Ben Gretch convinced me Moore is the safer bet anyway. |
| In one of the most valuable series we've run so far, Ben Gretch has been looking at key Draft Day dilemmas at each position and tried to show how to balance the need for upside with safety for each one. He compared Moore and Godwin, A.J. Brown and Robert Woods, and Jamison Crowder and Mecole Hardman, highlighting the decisions you'll be facing all throughout the draft, and it's worth reading to see the best path to take. For my part, I'll take Moore, Woods and Hardman among those choices. |
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| Wide receiver cheat sheet |
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| We've spent the whole week previewing the wide receiver position for 2020, but maybe you missed something. No worries, I've got you covered. Here's our entire wide receiver preview week in one place for you to study. This could be the position that makes or breaks your season, so now you have no excuse not to be an expert: |
The State of the Position Rankings Heath's position preview
Dave's Tiers and draft strategy ADP review Sleepers Post-hype breakouts Meet the rookie WR
Second-year WR breakdown Third-year breakouts Late-round sleepers
Who will join the 90-catch club? Regression candidates Three-WR mock draft Opportunity index Dynasty Rankings |
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| COVID-19 contingencies |
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| We've already seen the impact the coronavirus pandemic has had on the NFL offseason, from a virtual draft to canceled workouts and minicamps, and that impact isn't going to go away. Just look at how much MLB has had to juggle trying to play through this. Like it or not, this is going to be another factor you'll have to keep in mind, so it's best to be prepared. We've got a few resources to help you out with that. |
| Your first stop should be Dave's Q&A on the topic here as he covers what Fantasy players and league commissioners should expect from this season. Expanded rosters should be the first and easiest way to deal with the situation, and they're a must to deal with the possibility of positive tests and other unknowns stemming from this situation. But that's not the only thing you should be considering. Using Team QB rather than individuals is another, and you should definitely schedule your draft for as late as possible. And, of course, you should have a plan in play in case the season is disrupted or games are postponed. Dave will walk you through the whole range of what you should be considering. |
| Here's what else we've got to help prepare you for this unprecedented season: |
Draft strategy implications
COVID reserve list and opt-out tracker
Adjusting projections in a COVID-19 world |
| The Fantasy Football Today Draft Guide is here, and I promise, you'll want to have it by your side on Draft Day. We've boiled down everything you need to draft in one place, with consensus expert rankings and auction values, tiers, a round-by-round walkthrough, and Draft Day strategies and rules from Jamey, Dave, Heath and Ben. It's the next best thing to having them next to you while you draft. Head here to sign up for it, because it's absolutely free — which seems like a good value to me. |
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