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| Friday, September 4, 2020 |
| This is officially the last Friday before NFL football. By this time next week we'll already have one game in the books, and this newsletter will feature a breakdown of everything that happened in the season opener between the Chiefs and Texans. That's what you can expect every week right here on Friday mornings, along with lineup help to take you into the weekend. |
| But we've still got drafts to get to before then. Myself, I've got three this weekend, with one last one left for Monday afternoon, and it's always fun to get to those last few drafts of the year. We've been drafting since January, so we've got tons of data points to go on about where players are likely to be drafted, which should make these drafts even more predictable. But you can just go ahead and throw Average Draft Position data out. |
| OK, that's not 100% true; it can still be a general guide. But by this point in the year, you should know who you like and you should just go get your guys. That doesn't mean you should take CeeDee Lamb in the second round, but it does mean you shouldn't just wait until his ADP says he should go, because you may not get him. Lamb is one of the 10 players I'm looking to "reach" for this weekend, ADP be damned. |
| I'll get the rest of that list shortly, but first we've got a bombshell release that could have significant ramifications for Fantasy in Washington's backfield as well as another update on the Buccaneers backfield. Plus, one last #ASKFFT Mailbag before the start of the season — send in your emails to [email protected] with "ASKFFT" as the subject line to see your waiver wire, lineup, and trade questions in this spot all throughout the season. |
| Here's what you might have missed over the last few days before we get to the rest of today's newsletter: |
Draft Day Cheat Sheets
Fantasy Football Today Draft Guide 2020 Bold Predictions Position previews: QB | RB | WR QB Tiers 5.0 | QB Draft Day Strategies RB Tiers 5.0 | RB Draft Day Strategies WR Tiers 5.0 | WR Draft Day Strategies TE Tiers 5.0 | TE Draft Day Strategies Jamey Eisenberg's Sleepers | Busts | Breakouts Heath Cummings' Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts |
| And here's what else we've got on tap today: |
| 🚨The Big News 🔟10 to "reach" for 📬#ASKFFT Mailbag 📰More news and notes |
| 🚨The Big News |
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| Washington released Adrian Peterson on Friday morning. Washington's running back room gets a lot less crowded now, but it's still not clear exactly how things are going to shake out here or what the impact will be for Fantasy. On the one hand, this certainly certainly seems like a sign that they believe Bryce Love and Antonio Gibson are ready to make a big contribution, however with the presence of Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic, it doesn't necessarily mean the young guys will be trusted immediately with big roles. However, it does clear a path for both eventually. Gibson should go earlier in Fantasy drafts, though whether he's ready for a significant early-down role definitely remains to be seen after he had just 33 rush attempts in college. Love is the more natural fit to replace Peterson's expected workload, and he should move squarely into the top 100 in drafts now — even if it might be Barber who takes the first carries for Washington next week. Barber and McKissic are just late-round fliers at this point. Our Ben Gretch says Gibson becomes an instant must-have back in drafts now. Bruce Arians says Ronald Jones is still his starter… but nobody really believes him. Leonard Fournette went in the sixth round of a non-PPR draft we did Thursday, while Jones came off the board two full rounds later — to me. I'd still lean toward Fournette being the best Fantasy back here, but if Jones is going to go multiple rounds after him in that range, I'll have more of Jones than Fournette this season. The Seahawks signed Josh Gordon … but it probably doesn't matter all that much. The best-case scenario is Gordon is the third receiver for the Seahawks, but he played just about 40% of the team's snaps and had only 11 targets in five games last season. That doesn't mean he can't have a larger role in 2020, but given no training camp and that he's still waiting to be reinstated by the NFL, it's a long shot he'll make a Fantasy impact. However, on the Fantasy Football Today In 5 podcast, Ben Gretch made the case for why the Gordon signing might get in the way of the hoped-for DK Metcalf breakout. Listen here, and head to Spotify, Apple, or wherever else you get your podcasts to subscribe to Fantasy Football Today in 5 to get a five-minute breakdown of the latest news from around the NFL every morning. |
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| 🔟 to "reach" for |
| Forget about ADP, you've gotta make sure you get your guys this weekend. Here are 10 I'm willing to ignore ADP for and just go get them, because ADP doesn't capture their true value right now. |
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James Conner — CBS ADP: 29.8
Where I'd take him: Top 24 |
| I'm usually passing on RB at this point in the draft, but Conner might be an exception. There doesn't seem to be much reason to believe he'll be ceding carries, and we know he has top-five upside in this offense. |
Jonathan Taylor — CBS ADP: 53.64
Where I'd take him: Top 40 |
| Taylor will open in timeshare, making him a potentially fringe-y Week 1 option, but legit No. 1 RB upside down the road is the target here. Think 2019 Miles Sanders. |
Zack Moss — CBS ADP: 104.02
Where I'd take him: Top 75 |
| Devin Singletary's ADP is tumbling — down nine spots this week — and I'm not sure he needs to go higher than Moss at this point. Moss has had the better camp, could split work fairly evenly overall and seems to have the inside track for the goal-line role. |
Kareem Hunt — CBS ADP: 69.83
Where I'd take him: Top 50 |
| Heath Cummings called Hunt a PPR draft cheat code in the fifth round the other day, and I'm with him. Hunt should be a useful Fantasy option even when Nick Chubb is healthy, but he could be a top-three RB if Chubb has to miss time. |
Phillip Lindsay — CBS ADP: 85.83
Where I'd take him: Top 72 |
| Melvin Gordon's ADP has taken a bit of a fall, but he's still going four to five full rounds ahead of Lindsay. Given that they are going to split work pretty evenly and Gordon isn't guaranteed the passing work, that should be more like a two-to-three round gap. |
CeeDee Lamb — CBS ADP: 99.86
Where I'd take him: Top 75 |
| I'm surprised we haven't seen more of an increase in Lamb's ADP, given how glowing the reports out of camp have been. Yes, he's the No. 3 WR in Dallas, but that might be more valuable than the No. 2 Cleveland or Houston, two spots with players being drafted ahead of him. |
Preston Williams — CBS ADP: 120.81
Where I'd take him: Top 100 |
| I'll still take Williams after DeVante Parker — whose 81.4 ADP looks like a strong value — but Williams could absolutely be the 1B in this offense. |
Cam Newton — CBS ADP: 116.21
Where I'd take him: Top 100 |
| The actual draft range isn't the problem for Newton; it's that he's QB15 in ADP right now. I'd take him over Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff to name two going ahead of him. Newton is the perfect QB to reach for in the ninth round and pair with someone like Ben Roethlisberger later on. Upside locked in. |
Chris Herndon — CBS ADP: 148.12
Where I'd take him: Top 130 |
| Another one where the average spot isn't terrible, but Herndon still looks like a value. He's a top 12 tight end for Jamey, and sounds like he could be the No. 2 option for the Jets passing game. |
Ryquell Armstead — CBS ADP: 143.01
Where I'd take him: Top 100 |
| Here's one where the ADP just obviously hasn't had time to catch up. It's not clear Armstead will be ready for Week 1 since he's been dealing with a non-COVID related illness, but he's the best talent left in Jacksonville's backfield and could be a viable Fantasy starter when healthy. |
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| 📬#ASKFFT Mailbag |
| Chris S.: I just took part in a draft for a 12 team full PPR league. 14 of the first 15 picks were RBs. I drafted Michael Thomas #5. Is this sort of draft result craziness or is it somewhat common? |
| It's not totally unprecedented, but it's a more extreme version of what we're seeing. The concern here is probably that you missed out on the elite RB by taking Thomas, but I'm not sure anyone but the top four (Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara) really has more upside. Don't sweat it. |
| Randy: I have pick 11 in a 12-team PPR league. What would you do with your first 2 picks? |
| My ideal start from that spot is probably something like Davante Adams and one of Travis Kelce, Miles Sanders or Austin Ekeler. Locking in one elite running back is enough of a priority that I'd probably prefer to get Adams and Sanders, though Ekeler is a fine alternative if Sanders' injury is a concern for you. It isn't much of one for me. |
| Tony: I've been debating this over and over in my head for the last month. We can keep one player from last season. We do a Salary Cap draft and I can keep Tom Brady for $5 against my salary cap. It's 12 teams with a $100 budget. In our league QB, normally go for anywhere between $2-$12. I have to declare by next Monday. What's your thoughts? |
| If you read this newsletter regularly, you should know I've got my concerns about the Bucs offense, but even if I didn't, I'd pass on keeping Brady. You should be able to get him back cheaper, or you should be able to get someone with similar potential. |
| Steve: I am in a 12 team non-PPR league that has two keepers. I kept Alvin Kamara and Kenyan Drake. I finished 2nd last year so I will draft 11th and 14th. Do I take best RB for flex or take two WR? |
| You've got two elite running backs locked in, so you need to make WR your focus. I would double up on WR unless Travis Kelce or George Kittle are there when you pick. The only exception would be if someone like Aaron Jones or Miles Sanders is there, but that seems pretty unlikely. |
| Kipp: I had a great draft and definitely waited for QB. I got Stafford and Goff super late then picked up an undrafted Cam as well. Big Ben is a free agent now as well. I need to trim this QB fat. Who gets cut? |
| I generally don't even love having multiple quarterbacks, but if I draft Newton, there's a pretty good chance I'll keep a backup around. I would go with Cam and Stafford here. |
| Thomas: My league allows you to keep one player however long you'd like, but they count as your first round pick. I have the 12th pick and I'm looking to go RB-RB but was wondering if you thought it was worth drafting Jonathan Taylor with one of the picks? Can you see him as a top draft pick next year? |
| In this kind of keeper format, I don't really think you've gotta worry much about targeting players specifically for their keeper value in mind — you should have someone worth keeping this time next year, and if you don't, the limited number of keepers means you'll have access to elite talent anyway. That being said, I think something would have to have gone really wrong for Taylor not to be a first-round pick with Marlon Mack set to hit free agency. |
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| 📰Notes and Quotes |
| Mike Williams (shoulder) could play in Week 1. That is according to Chargers offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who said "We look forward to having him on September 13." That's certainly more optimistic than what we've seen on Williams so far, and I would still expect him to miss or at least be limited in Week 1. However, if he's close to playing, that could mean this injury isn't as serious as feared, and puts Williams back on the late-round radar as one of my favorite sleepers/breakout candidates. Kenyan Drake was back at practice Thursday. All along, the Cardinals have maintained that Drake was in a walking boot only out of a precaution, and it seems like there's no risk for Week 1. If Drake falls to the second round of your draft, take him without much hesitation. Darrynton Evans was back at practice Thursday from his leg injury. The Titans seem to like Evans as a do-it-all backup to Derrick Henry, so hopefully this injury didn't set him back too much. Still, they don't have much else at RB, so Evans is a fine late-round flier as Henry insurance. Parris Campbell is out of the concussion protocol. Campbell was having a good camp before getting into a car accident, so hopefully this didn't set him back much. He is a solid late-round flier. Amari Cooper dealing with an injury. We don't have much in the way of details on this, but Cooper was in pads working with trainers, and is expected to be ready for Week 1. He can be frustrating to have to rely on, but Cooper should be a weekly No. 1 WR candidate. DeeJay Dallas is impressing in the passing game. Given that Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson are expected to be the top two backs here, Dallas could be the third-down option. That may not make him a Fantasy viable option, but it could limit Carson's upside. |
| The Fantasy Football Today Draft Guide is here, and I promise, you'll want to have it by your side on Draft Day. We've boiled down everything you need to draft in one place, with consensus expert rankings and auction values, tiers, a round-by-round walkthrough, and Draft Day strategies and rules from Jamey, Dave, Heath and Ben. It's the next best thing to having them next to you while you draft. Head here to sign up for it, because it's absolutely free — which seems like a good value to me. |
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