Good evening,

It’s popcorn time for M&A pundits.

It feels as though the Perpetual love triangle could explode as early as Thursday, with BPEA EQT and Regal expected to return with a revised offer.

BPEA EQT’s dealmakers were sharpening their pencils on Wednesday night. They’re tipped to return with a bid in the mid-30s, and a request for due diligence.

Perpetual’s camp, meanwhile, seems to be calling for $40 or more, which is a long way from the mid-30s.

The whole situation is muddied – or cleared up, depending on how you look at it – by Perpetual’s scrip-heavy deal to acquire Pendal. Pendal doesn’t want to be left out in the cold, and had its lawyers negotiate protections in the scheme signed in August.

So BPEA EQT/Regal want Perpetual, Perpetual wants Pendal, Pendal wants Perpetual – but it’s BPEA EQT/Regal with the cash bid. And in M&A, cash is normally always king.

Should it play out as expected, it would turn into the M&A battle of the year.

Speaking of battles, we’ve picked up results from the annual Peter Lee survey, which has turned into a battle between the two biggest and broadest teams.

While equities heads will focus on top 20 clients and preferred client rankings, all client votes fell heavily to Macquarie and Barrenjoey.

Elsewhere, we have a new deal at Armitage Associates and a little Livetiles scoop.

Happy reading,

Anthony Macdonald, Sarah Thompson and Kanika Sood
Street Talk editors