Bonds Can't Catch a Break

Bonds Can't Catch a Break This week was supposed to be all about CPI confirming or rejecting the notion that core inflation was finally falling into line. A reading at or below the forecast would ostensibly have done that, but bonds managed to sell off abruptly that same afternoon. Now today, a modest 0.1% beat in Producer Prices (a far less relevant report) resulted in additional selling. One might be forced to conclude that the selling is happening for reasons that transcend the data despite the persistent cries of "data dependent" from the Fed and those who hang on their every word. Econ Data / EventsCore Producer Prices month-over-month0.3 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.1 prev Core PPI y/y2.4 vs 2.3 f'cast, 2.4 prev Market Movement Recap09:35 AM Flat overnight and weaker after data. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr yields up 4.5bps at 4.152% 01:06 PM treading water at weakest levels. MBS still down 3/8ths. 10yr up 5.5bps at 4.162. 03:15 PM Weakest levels for Treasuries, up 6.3bps at 4.17. MBS down 10 ticks (.31), outperforming.

August 11, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Bonds Can't Catch a Break Bonds Can't Catch a Break This week was supposed to be all about CPI confirming or rejecting the notion that core inflation was finally falling into line. A reading at or below the forecast would ostens... (read more) Rob Chrisman Broker Pricing and Non-QM Products; Seminars and Conferences; Rates Higher on Producer Prices As the MMLA conference wraps up (congratulations to Dan Grzywacz, CMB, and nearly 40-year industry vet, who was this year’s James T. Barnes Award winner), the conversations still involve some seemingly endless topics. One of which is W2 versus 1099. ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.19% +0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.19% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.60% +0.12 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.88% +0.08 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.20% +0.05 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.05% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.88% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 8/11 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.60% +0.12% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.96% +0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.34% +0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/10 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.09% +0.16 0.70 15 Yr. Fixed 6.51% +0.12 0.92 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.04% +0.15 0.66 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/9 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.33 -0.30 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.33 -0.30 UMBS 6.0 99.89 -0.22 GNMA 5.5 98.55 -0.27 GNMA 6.0 99.95 -0.20 Pricing as of: 8/11 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.1600 +0.0530 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.895 +0.045 5 YR Treasury 4.303 +0.069 7 YR Treasury 4.252 +0.068 10 YR Treasury 4.160 +0.053 30 YR Treasury 4.267 +0.012 Pricing as of: 8/11 5:31PM EST Latest Video Bianco Research president: If the Fed stops raising rates, the result could... CPI reflects progress on inflation, but we are a long way from 2%, says Hig... Core CPI could hit .2 or less over the next three months, says Fundstrat's ... The Fed's insistent rate strategy aims to curb consumer spending, says CIC ... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August CNBC Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in July, higher than expected Eye on Housing Price Growth of Key Building Materials Continues to Moderate Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 9% YoY; New Listings Down 14% YoY Calculated Risk Blog The Long-Term Housing and Population Shift Reuters Daly: Premature to say if Fed has done enough on rates CNBC Treasury yields rise after the cooler-than-expected July inflation print CNBC Op-ed: Mortgage real estate investment trusts may be a soft-landing winner. Here are REITs worth a look CNBC Biden seeks nearly $40 billion in funding for Ukraine, disaster relief and border Calculated Risk Blog MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2023"; Lowest Level on Record Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 1.0% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter CNBC European markets set to open lower; UBS ends Credit Suisse protection measures

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