Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty

Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty Bonds improved moderately overnight, adding onto what was already a fairly substantial recovery yesterday. The morning's PCE data was slightly lower than expected, but bonds didn't seem unequivocally happy about that. There was a modest extension of the rally and then a slow give-back into the PM hours. Trading was very flat near unchanged levels after noon ET. Month/Quarter-end tradeflows are assumed to be underpinning some of the volatility of the past 3 days, as is the uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown. The most direct implication for bonds is that they must navigate the most important data week of the month without the most important data (no jobs report or JOLTS next week due to the shutdown). Econ Data / EventsCore PCE m/m0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev Core PCE y/y3.9 vs 3.9 f'cast, 4.3 prev Market Movement Recap08:46 AM Moderately stronger overnight with some additional improvement after data. 10yr down 5+bps at 4.524. MBS up just over a quarter point. 11:11 AM Giving up some gains. MBS off a quarter point from highs, but still up nearly an eighth on the day. 10yr still down 4bps on the day but up 3bps from lows. 03:13 PM Weakest levels of the day for 10s, up 1bp at 4.588. Weakest liquid levels for MBS, down an eighth of a point in 6.0 coupons.

September 29, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty Bonds improved moderately overnight, adding onto what was already a fairly substantial recovery yesterday. The morning's PCE data was slightly ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Accounting, JV Partner, Credit, Stand-Alone 2nd Products; Shutdown Primer for Lenders; Tax Transcripts? Shutdown or no shutdown, the National Park Service’s Fat Bear Week is approaching, focused on how these behemoths tip the scale. Here’s your tip of the day: Having books in your Zoom background makes you seem more trustworthy. What if one of them is ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.44% -0.16% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.44% -0.16 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.75% -0.14 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.90% -0.15 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.55% -0.05 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.05% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.92% -0.14 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/29 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.75% -0.14% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.31% +0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.72% +0.18 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/28 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.41% +0.10 0.71 15 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.11 1.17 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.34% +0.02 0.78 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/27 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.59 -0.14 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 98.59 -0.14 GNMA 6.0 98.98 -0.11 Pricing as of: 9/29 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.5810 +0.0020 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.056 -0.006 5 YR Treasury 4.620 -0.009 7 YR Treasury 4.625 -0.017 10 YR Treasury 4.581 +0.002 30 YR Treasury 4.709 0.000 Pricing as of: 9/29 5:31PM EST Latest Video Fmr. Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo: It's hard to see how mid-size banks survi... New York Fed President John Williams: Federal Reserve is at or near peak ra... San Jose real estate is a 'strong' seller's market, says Coldwell Banker Re... Inflows to bond ETFs on the rise: Strategas Securities' Todd Sohn Around the Web CNBC The Fed's favorite inflation indicator rose less than expected in August CNBC Eight big U.S. bank CEOs to face Senate Banking Committee grilling in December Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Tracking: Around 3% Eye on Housing Property Tax Revenue Climbs as Income Tax Receipts Decline Sharply Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.6% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 7.4% YoY in August Calculated Risk Blog Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Declined, Multi-Family Increased in August Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.4% in August; Spending increased 0.4% Calculated Risk Blog Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year CNBC 10-year Treasury yield falls after notching 15-year high in previous session Eye on Housing Number of 5,000+ Square Foot Homes Down in 2022 Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 3.7% YoY; New Listings Down 7.5% YoY CNBC European markets poised to open mixed ahead of euro zone inflation data

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