| |  | | Thursday, March 27, 2025 | | There are zero more days until Opening Day. We're here. All the planning, the ranking, the arguing, and the drafting, it has all been leading to this. | | Of course, it hasn't really been leading to this. Because this is just the start of it. We've got six months of baseball before we know if all that planning, ranking, arguing, and drafting was leading to a championship or just another long, cold, lonely offseason as a loser. | But it all starts today, and while we won't be able to make any definitive statements about what we were right or wrong about based on one day, there's still plenty to look out for. So, before we get to our bold predictions and official picks for the 2025 MLB season, here's a brief list of 10 questions I'll be looking for answers to on Opening Day and in the first series of the season: | - Can Clay Holmes really be an ace? – Spring Training served as a pretty impressive proof of concept, as he allowed just two runs in 19.1 innings, with 23 strikeouts and eight walks. He expanded his arsenal for the transition to the rotation and it looks legit, but we won't know how he'll fare facing lineups three times until he does it.
- Is Mookie Betts okay? – He dealt with a stomach illness and lost 20 pounds over the past few weeks, which is pretty concerning. It sounds like he's past it and will be in the Opening Day lineup, but will there be any lingering issues here? We'd love to see a few hard-hit balls from Betts early on.
- Does Freddy Peralta have a bounceback left in him? – Peralta's mechanics were a bit off last season, and he had to move to the first base side of the rubber to get the same effect on his fastball to right-handed hitters. He says he has fixed that mechanical issue and there could be some underrated upside here – though I'll note he did struggle to an 8.56 ERA this spring, though with plenty of strikeouts and solid control.
- Does Nolan Arenado have anything left in the tank? – It was a small sample size, but Arenado's bat speed was up this spring as he tries to stave off the decline phase of his career – and convince some contender to trade for him. We'd like to see some hard-hit balls from Arenado early on, too.
- How much leash do the Marlins give Sandy Alcantara ? – Alcantara says he won't have an innings limit, but does that mean he's just going to be unleashed from Opening Day? I don't expect to see 90 pitches from him today, but if he gets through five-plus innings and 80-plus pitches, the Marlins really might just let him go. He could end up being an unexpected value if the Marlins really aren't going to treat him with kid's gloves.
- Is Sonny Gray okay? – Gray dealt with a forearm injury at the end of last season, and we learned recently he had an injection to manage the pain in the flexor tendon in his elbow, which delayed his offseason throwing program. His velocity has been down this spring, and while Gray isn't worried about it, I think he should be. We'd love to see him shut the doubters up today.
- Are Cam Smith and Kristian Campbell really ready? Campbell is making his MLB debut after 137 games in the minors, which makes him an old-head when compared to Smith, who played just 32 before forcing his way onto the roster this spring. There's big-time upside, but both could be totally overwhelmed, too.
- Is Jackson Holliday more prepared? – You wanna talk overmatched, that was Holliday last April, as he struck out in 18 of 36 trips to the plate before earning a swift demotion back to the minors. He looked a lot better this spring, striking out just 20.4% of the time, and he could be a difference-maker in Fantasy if he's actually ready this time.
- Does Sean Burke matter? – Will history repeat itself? Last year, the White Sox drew some chuckles when their Opening Day starter was making his first-ever MLB start, which worked out pretty well for Garrett Crochet . Burke will also be making his very first MLB start today, and there's big stuff here – along with huge control problems in the minors. He won't be as dynamic as Crochet, it goes without saying. But could the White Sox surprise us again with a must-add waiver-wire target on Opening Day? I'll be watching this one, just in case.
- How do the Reds divvy up playing time? – With Spencer Steer making the roster despite his shoulder injury, there's a looming log jam here. Steer will probably serve as the DH, with Christian Encarnacion-Strand at first base and Jeimer Candelario at third. And with Austin Hays on the IL, there should be room for Gavin Lux in a corner outfield spot. That might work for a week, but once Hays is back, will there be enough room for all of the Fantasy-relevant bats here?
| | Alright, now let's get to it. We're ready for the season. Let's go. | | | | One thing I want to point out here at the top: These are bold predictions. They're supposed to be a little out there. Bold predictions are supposed to be about us going just a little out on a limb (sometimes a lot more than just a little). | | We're planting a flag here. | | Not on the things we think are most likely to happen -- that's what the previous months of endless podcasting and prognosticating are for. No, bold predictions are where we go beyond what we think is most likely to happen, to try to predict storylines that, if they do come true, will have an outsized impact on the 2025 season. | | We've got three bold predictions from each of the Fantasy Baseball Today hosts for the Fantasy season, plus one general MLB bold call, plus our award picks, division winners, and World Series picks. | | Yeah, we're gonna get some of this wrong. That's part of the fun. | | Chris Towers' Season Prediction | | Three Fantasy Bold Predictions | | | | The thing is, players "can't" stay healthy until they do it. I've made this comp more than once because it's apt: Ken Griffey Jr. played 128 games in 2005, 144 in 2007, and 143 in 2008, after playing 83 or fewer in three straight seasons. Trout isn't as old as Griffey was at that point in his career, either. That doesn't mean Trout will stay healthy, I just point it out to show that it's possible. And Trout is still an impact player when he's on the field, putting up a 41-homer, 12-steal pace across his past two seasons. It isn't the likeliest outcome, but it's likelier than you think. | | | | This one isn't even a particularly bold prediction for me – I have Sasaki ranked ahead of Jobe, but not by nearly as much as the near-100 pick difference in their prices over the past week. I expect similar workloads from both of them, but Sasaki's injury history is more concerning – while Jobe has mostly missed time with back and hamstring injuries, Sasaki's has been arm issues, and he was recommended for Tommy John surgery a few years back. Sasaki is considered the better prospect, but I'm not sure I necessarily agree with that – Jobe doesn't throw quite as hard and he doesn't have one killer pitch like Sasaki's splitter, but his arsenal is broader, and I think his command is currently better. I wish Jobe had shown more strikeout ability either in the minors last season or this spring, but I'm willing to give him some benefit of the doubt on that because he was working on multiple new pitches and was probably worried more about getting ready for the season than his stats. I don't think you should have drafted either expecting an immediate impact arm, but I do think Jobe is better situated for immediate success. | | | | Both the Marlins and White Sox have a top-50 player | With the Marlins, I think the likeliest option is Sandy Alcantara. I'm expecting the strikeout rate to bounce back to pre-2023 levels, and he should be a solid low-3.00s ERA guy, with the biggest obstacle to a top-50 finish being the likelihood that he'll take a bunch of tough-luck losses. If not him, Xavier Edwards could be in the running if his ability to dump singles all over the outfield last season carries over; I'm skeptical, but a .290 average, 90-plus runs, and 50-plus steals could be a path to a top-50 finish, and it's not out of the realm of possibility. | The White Sox one is tougher, admittedly, though I do actually like Luis Robert more as a Fantasy option than anyone on the Marlins right now. The problem is, if he's playing up to his potential, it probably means he's traded early in the summer. An engaged and healthy Robert, with something to play for (a ticket out of town), could put up 30 homers and 20-plus steals, but if he gets traded in June, can I call this one a win? If not, the pickings are slim, and would likely come from the pitching side – I think there's some upside with Sean Burke and Shane Smith, and they actually have some very interesting prospects like Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith who could be really useful options if they force their way to the majors early enough. | | One MLB Bold Prediction | | | | You wanted bold, well, here you go. The Dodgers are the most talented team in baseball and the favorites to win the World Series, with three MVP candidates in their lineup, depth beyond that, and contingency options on top of contingency options in the rotation. No team is better positioned to win a title in 2025, and that will probably be the case for the next three or four seasons, at least. | But call it a World Series hangover, or just acknowledge the reality that two of their three MVP candidates enter the season with injury concerns, and the third will be trying to come back as a two-way player after missing all of last season recovering from elbow surgery. Betting against Ohtani hasn't gone well for anyone since he came to the majors, but he's going to try to come back as a pitcher without a rehab assignment, and he's likely to get more time off as a hitter as a result of his return to pitching. The Dodgers know winning the division isn't the goal, and they're playing for October in March, so the stakes simply aren't that high. The Diamondbacks or Padres would probably need an "everything went right" type of season to even challenge the Dodgers for the division crown, but it's not impossible. | | | | Award Picks | | American League | - AL Rookie of the Year: Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox – I know he didn't have great results in the spring, but the Red Sox sure didn't seem worried about that, did they? The bigger concern here is that Campbell just doesn't have a long track record of high-level production, but let's be fair here: He was the best hitter in the minors last season and it wasn't particularly close. I like Cam Smith, but I'll bet on Campbell.
- AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers – It's more likely someone else wins it, but I don't think any individual pitcher is more likely to win the Cy Young than the guy who came within a few hits of leading the AL in wins, ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts last season. Let's not overthink this.
- AL MVP: Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees – Bobby Witt's incredible 2024 season still left him nearly a full win short of Aaron Judge's 2022 and 2024 seasons, per FanGraphs' WAR calculation. The baseline here seems to be 55 homers if Judge stays healthy. I'm not going to overthink this one.
| | National League | - NL Rookie of the Year: Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals – I like the skills here – good plate discipline, solid quality of contact skills, plus athleticism – and he should be an impact player if he puts it all together. I suspect the defense and baserunning will be at least good, and if the bat is even slightly above-average, you could be talking about a very good real-life player.
- NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies – Let's get Zack one, huh? He's been in contention several times, including multiple second-place finishes, so let's see if he can get over the hump. If it's not Wheeler, the likeliest choice is Skenes, who I imagine most people will pick.
- NL MVP: Kyle Tucker , OF, Cubs – I'll buy a little narrative here. The Cubs are my pick to win the NL Central, and Tucker was the big offseason addition, so he'll get a lot of credit for it. If the plate discipline gains he made last season were real, it's not out of the question he could head into free agency with some hardware to help his case.
| | Standings predictions | | American League | - AL East Winner: Yankees – I don't know about this one. They're already dealing with injury issues, and the core of this team is either old or injury-prone. But the other East contenders have their own flaws to deal with, too, and I think the Orioles pitching staff keeps them from getting over the hump here.
- AL Central Winner: Twins – They're kind of light on star power, but the Twins have contingency options all over the field, and if they get 120 games out of both Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis , that could be the best left side of the infield in baseball.
- AL West Winner: Rangers – I'm buying a bounceback. The lineup can't be worse than it was last season, and they go seven or eight deep with interesting arms. There's a lot of risk here, but the ceiling is … well, they just won a World Series two years ago, didn't they?
- Wild Cards: Astros, Blue Jays, Red Sox – I think the Astros are probably being underrated. Yes, this is the tail end of the dynasty, and they've bled a lot of really impactful pieces. But Yordan Alvarez is a darkhorse MVP candidate, and I wouldn't flinch if someone picked Cam Smith for Rookie of the Year or Framber Val,dez for Cy Young. The Blue Jays and Red Sox are on opposite sides of the developmental curve, with the Red Sox on the way up and the Blue Jays hoping for one last run with their previous, formerly-young core.
| | National League | - NL East Winner: Phillies – With a top of the rotation that matches anyone in baseball – I'll give them the edge over the Dodgers, even, given the projectable volume here – and a star-studded lineup, the Phillies remain one of the best teams in baseball. The only problem here is, the best players are all in their 30s, so there are some correlated outcomes where everything falls apart at once. I just don't think that's coming this season.
- NL Central Winner: Cubs – I'm not sure there's enough pitching for them to be a truly elite team, but I expect them to be pretty strong at everything on the field.
- NL West Winner: Dodgers – Hey, it was the bold prediction, not what I actually think will happen. The likeliest outcome is still that they cruise to 95-plus wins without having to break a sweat.
- Wild Cards: Mets, Braves, Diamondbacks – The Mets aren't nearly as strong as their payroll would suggest, but adding Juan Soto to a team that already made the playoffs should be more than enough. The Braves have a ceiling comparable to the Dodgers, but a lot more ways for things to go wrong, as we saw last season. And I'll give the last spot to a team that just missed the playoffs last season and then went out and added the best pitcher in free agency. Seems easy enough!
| | World Series | - Braves over Rangers – I mean, look, the likeliest team is probably the Dodgers. They have plenty of ways things could go wrong, but they also have just a ludicrous amount of pitching depth that should help them overcome that. But if Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, and Spencer Schwellenbach are healthy in October, that might be the best trio in baseball, and the Braves have the bats to go swing for swing with the Dodgers, too. Getting out of the AL is going to be easier, and the Rangers' high-end outcomes just can't be matched by any other team in the league.
| | Frank Stampfl's Season Predictions | | Host of Fantasy Baseball Today | | Three Fantasy Bold Predictions | - Robbie Ray is the most valuable LHP in the NL. In other words, he outperforms Chris Sale. Ray manages to stay healthy and strikes out everybody using his deceptive fastball, nasty slider, and newfound changeup (thanks, Tarik Skubal). Sale takes a step back and deals with lingering injuries all season.
- Josh Lowe outperforms Jarren Duran. Last season many dubbed Duran as "this year's Josh Lowe". Well, well, well, how the turntables ... I think Lowe is in for a big year playing in George M. Steinbrenner Field. He stays healthy and gets back to his 2023 form, posting another 20-30 season. Duran is still productive but takes a little step back, posting more like 15 home runs and 25 steals.
- Isaac Paredes leads all third basemen in home runs. As we've said all offseason, Paredes' pull-heavy swing in Houston is a match made in heaven. He hit 31 home runs two years ago and I think he can get back to that level. What makes this especially bold is that he'll likely have to be even better than that. Let's say Paredes hits 35 home runs with Jose Ramirez, Austin Riley, and Rafael Devers all settling in around 30.
| | One MLB Bold Prediction | - We get multiple 40-40 seasons. This might not sound bold because it nearly happened last year! In reality, the two most likely to accomplish this - Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuña Jr. - won't have the opportunity to do it this season. Ohtani is expected to run less and Acuña Jr. is returning from a torn ACL. Others will have to step up. The most likely candidates include Elly De La Cruz, Bobby Witt Jr., Jose Ramirez, Julio Rodriguez, Jackson Chourio, and Fernando Tatis Jr. Some dark horse candidates include Jazz Chisholm Jr., Oneil Cruz, Wyatt Langford, James Wood, and Lawrence Butler.
| | American League | - AL East Winner: Red Sox
- AL Central Winner: Royals
- AL West Winner: Rangers
- Wild Cards: Astros, Yankees, Mariners
| | National League | - NL East Winner: Braves
- NL Central Winner: Cubs
- NL West Winner: Dodgers
- Wild Cards: Phillies, Diamondbacks, Mets
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World Series | | | | Award Picks | | American League | | | | Award Picks | | National League | | | | Scott White's Season Predictions | | Fantasy Baseball Today co-host, CBS Sports Senior Fantasy Writer | | Three Fantasy Bold Predictions | Isaac Paredes' 2025 is better than Alex Bregman's 2024 or 2023. Bregman was basically a .260-hitting, 25-homer guy in his final two years in Houston, and those numbers should be well within reach for Paredes, whose down-the-line tendencies should play perfectly with Daikin Park's short left field porch. Tampa Bay was just as shallow down the left field line (though less so along the rest of the left field fence), and we saw Paredes' power play up there. Bailey Ober and Shota Imanaga flip ERAs from a year ago, within a tenth of a point. This is just my way of saying that while they go about it differently, Ober and Imanaga profile similarly as pitchers, being elite strike-throwers with fly-ball tendencies and reasonably good bat-missing skills. This makes them reliable for WHIP but less so for ERA, because of home runs. The proof of concept is that while Ober had a 3.98 ERA to Imanaga's 2.91 mark last year, Ober actually led the two in expected ERA, 3.22 to 3.39. - Christian Yelich hits his most home runs since 2019. Will he equal the 44 he hit that year, nearly capturing his second consecutive MVP award? Certainly not, but the reason Yelich hasn't gotten even halfway there in the years since is because his back was messed up. He finally had surgery to address it last August, and while back surgeries are notoriously volatile, he returned this spring with three homers in his first six games and looked strong at the plate overall.
| | One MLB Bold Prediction | All three of the Dodgers' MVP bats and every one of their starting pitchers spends time on the IL Sorry for the downer prediction, but between Freddie Freeman 's ankle maintenance and achy ribs and Mookie Betts' digestive trauma, we've already seen cracks developing for a core that's now in its 30s, and those aren't even the ones trying to build up a pitch count while anchoring a lineup. Meanwhile, nobody on the pitching side is any stranger to injury, and I wouldn't put it past the Dodgers to employ IL stints strategically to keep everyone fresh. Rest assured, they're going to win 100 games regardless.
| | American League | - AL East Winner: Red Sox
- AL Central Winner: Royals
- AL West Winner: Astros
- Wild Cards: Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles
| | National League | - NL East Winner: Phillies
- NL Central Winner: Cubs
- NL West Winner: Dodgers
- Wild Cards: Braves, Diamondbacks, Mets
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World Series | | | | Award Picks | | American League | - AL Rookie of the Year: Cam Smith
- AL Cy Young: Garrett Crochet
- AL MVP: Bobby Witt
| | Award Picks | | National League | - NL Rookie of the Year: Dylan Crews
- NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes
- NL MVP: Elly De La Cruz
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