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| Friday, October 27, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| I hope you have the Red Zone channel, because you're going to need it this weekend. For some reason, the NFL decided not to hand out any byes in Week 8, so there will be a full slate of games on Sunday. |
| I will be watching so much Red Zone on Sunday that there's a 50% chance that I'll end up dressing as Scott Hanson for Halloween. If you see a guy stumbling around Nashville yelling out, "Seven hours of commercial free football starts now," that's probably me. |
| Anyway, there was also a game last night and we'll be handing out grades from Buffalo's 24-18 win over Tampa Bay. Not to mention, today's Friday, which means we'll also have some picks and bold predictions for Week 8. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's show: Best bets for Week 8 |
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| If you're a regular listener of the "Pick Six NFL" podcast or a regular reader of this newsletter, then you know what we do on Fridays: We make picks. And then just when you think we're done making picks, we make more picks. |
| For today's show, Will Brinson was joined by R.J. White and Alex "PropStarz" Selelnick -- two of our gambling gurus over at SportsLine -- and the three of them offered some of their best bets for Week 8. |
| The crew spent an entire hour handing out picks, and we're going to go over a few of their best bets here: |
Will Brinson (0-3 in picks we shared here last week, 10-10-1 on the season)
Panthers (+3) to cover against Texans
Rams (+6.5) to cover against Cowboys
Titans (+2.5) to cover against Falcons |
R.J. White (2-1 in picks we shared here last week, 8-13 on the season)
Eagles (-6.5) to cover against Commanders
Seahawks (-3.5) to cover against Browns
Rams score UNDER 19.5 points against Cowboys |
| As for PropStarz, he handed out a few of his favorite props for the weekend, because when your nickname is PropStarz, that's what the people expect. |
| Rams at Cowboys: Ceedee Lamb OVER 65.5 receiving yardsJaguars at Steelers: Calvin Ridley OVER 52.5 receiving yardsFalcons at Titans: Bijan Robinson OVER 48.5 rushing yards |
| PropStarz went 1-2 last week and is now 10-11 on the season, including 9-6 over the past five weeks. |
| To hear what the rest of the best bets are for Week 8 -- and there are quite a few -- be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here. |
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| 2. Thursday night grades after Bills' 24-18 win over Buccaneers |
| For the first three-and-a-half quarters, the Bills dominated the Buccaneers on Thursday night, but the Buccaneers made things interesting near the end. The Bucs went into the fourth quarter trailing 24-10, but they cut that lead down to 24-18 when Mike Evans caught a TD with 2:44 left to play. The Bucs then got the ball back and they came just INCHES away from pulling off a miracle upset with a Hail Mary on the final play (You can see the play here). |
| In the end, the Bills walked away with the win and they're now 5-3 on the season while the Buccaneers dropped to 3-4. |
| Here are our grades from Buffalo's win: |
| BUCCANEERS GRADE: C |
| The Buccaneers actually came inches away from winning this game, which was surprising, because the Bills seemed to dominate for most of the game. The Bucs offense had trouble moving the ball for most of the night, but they did come alive in the fourth quarter. Of course, the Bucs must have forgotten they were trailing by two touchdowns in the fourth, because they had zero urgency during a key TD drive that took more than seven minutes off the clock (You can't take seven minutes off the clock when you're trailing 24-10 in the fourth quarter). The Bucs defense got run over early in the game, but it also came up with several big plays, including a goal-line stand and an interception of Josh Allen that set up a TD in the first half. The Bills were definitely the better team, but the Bucs should get some credit for keeping this close. |
| Buccaneers notes |
| Bucs can't beat good teams. The Buccaneers have played seven games this season and it's become pretty clear that they seem to struggle against good teams. Of their seven opponents so far, four of them are currently over .500 (Bills, Falcons, Eagles, Lions) and the Bucs went 0-4 against those teams. On the other hand, the Bucs have gone 3-0 against teams who are currently under .500 (Vikings, Bears, Saints). |
| BILLS GRADE: B- |
| This win basically epitomized Buffalo's season so far: For a good chunk of the game, they looked like one of the best teams in the NFL, but there was also a solid portion where they were wildly inconsistent, which is why Tampa Bay was able to keep things close. Josh Allen finished with impressive numbers (365 total yards, two passing touchdowns, one rushing TD), but he did most of his damage during the first two and a half quarters. After going up 24-10 in the third quarter, the Bills ended up punting on their final four offensive possessions, which kept the Bucs alive. Speaking of punting, Sam Martin was one of the stars of the game for Buffalo. The Bills punter pinned the Bucs inside their own 8-yard line a total of three times in the second half. The Bills have the talent to beat anyone, but it remains to be seen if that talent can play consistently good football. |
| Bills note |
| Allen is amazing. With a rushing TD against the Buccaneers, Allen now has 43 for his career, which is tied with Steve Young for the second-most in NFL history (Only Cam Newton has more). Allen also had his 30th career game with at least one passing TD and one rushing TD, which is the fourth-most in NFL history, trailing only Cam Newton (45), Steve Young (31) and Aaron Rodgers (31). Although Allen was good, he did injure his shoulder in the game. "I'm going to be a little sore for a couple of days," Allen said after the game. "A lot of rehab in this next little mini-bye that we've got. I'm glad it's a Thursday night game. We'll have some time to rest." The Bills' next game is a Sunday night showdown against the Bengals in Week 9. Home cooking. There is no team that seems to appreciate home-field advantage more than the Bills. Through eight weeks, the Bills are 4-0 at home, but just 1-3 away from Buffalo (including London game). Josh Allen has played a huge factor in that. The Bills QB has a 122.3 QB rating at home with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions. However, on the road, Allen's QB rating is 83.7 with just six touchdowns and six interceptions. |
| If you want to check out more of our takeaways from the game, be sure to click here. |
| 3. Patrick Mahomes is putting three historical streaks on the line this weekend |
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| Since taking over as the Chiefs starting quarterback in 2018, Patrick Mahomes has been the most unstoppable player in the NFL. No one knows that more than the Denver Broncos. At this point, the Broncos probably dread seeing the Chiefs on the schedule, and that's because they've never beaten Mahomes. As a matter of fact, he's been so good against the Broncos that he could make NFL history if he beats them again Sunday. |
| Mahomes has a total of three impressive streaks going, and he'll be looking to continue all three of them with a win in Denver. |
| Streak 1: Mahomes is 12-0 against the Broncos in his career. With his perfect record against the Broncos, Mahomes is tied with Otto Graham for the most victories by a QB against a single opponent without a loss. During his career, the Browns QB went 12-0 against the Cardinals. Mahomes is currently tied with Graham, but he could break the Hall of Famer's NFL record by improving to 13-0 against the Broncos with a win Sunday. Streak 2: Mahomes is 16-0 on the road against AFC West teams. The only thing more impressive than Mahomes' record against the Broncos is the fact that he has NEVER lost to a divisional opponent on the road. He already holds the NFL record for most divisional road wins to start a career, and if he wins Sunday, he'll inch closer to Joe Montana's NFL record for longest winning streak in divisional road games at any point in a career. From 1984 to 1993, Montana won 20 straight divisional road games as a starter. Streak 3: Mahomes is 25-0 in his career against teams that are multiple games under .500. When it comes to winning the games that you're supposed to win, no one is better at that than Mahomes. During his career, he is undefeated against teams that are two or more games under .500 when they play the Chiefs. A win over the 2-5 Broncos would push Mahomes to 26-0, which would extend his own NFL record. To give you an idea of how impressive this is, the second-longest streak since the merger belongs to Tom Brady, and his streak ended at 18 games. |
| A win by the Chiefs would also give Kansas City 17 straight wins over the Broncos, which would be tied for the second-longest winning streak against one opponent in NFL history (The all-time record belongs to the Dolphins, who beat the Bills 20 straight times from 1970 thru 1979). |
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| 4. NFL Week 8 picks: Packers upset Vikings, Colts top Saints |
| I hope you're not tired of reading our picks yet, because we have even more of them coming at you right now. This batch will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco along with Will Brinson, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. After getting off to a hot start this season, the five of us have finally crashed back to earth. After going 16-8-1 through the first five weeks, we've gone 2-8 over the past two weeks. |
| Heading into Week 8, we're a combined 18-16-1 against the spread with our picks that have been featured in the newsletter. |
| Here's how things are going to work: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on. |
| Pete Prisco: Packers (+1) 24-21 over Vikings. From Prisco: "The Vikings have won two straight to right things and impressed in beating the 49ers Monday night. But this is a division game on the road on a short week, which is always a challenge." For the rest of Prisco's Week 8 picks, be sure to click here.Tyler Sullivan: Seahawks (-3) 28-20 over Browns. From Sullivan: "The Seahawks offense has plenty of weapons at Geno Smith's disposal, the X factor could end up being the Seattle defense that has tallied 18 sacks, allowed 10 points per game, and just 237 total yards in their last three games. Cleveland has also been a rough bet on the road as they are 2-6 ATS in their past eight away from home." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 8 picks, be sure to click here.Will Brinson: Panthers (+3) to cover against the Texans. From Brinson: "The Panthers have to win this game at home against the Texans just to get David Tepper off Frank Reich's ass. It's abundantly clear Tepper is the guy who wanted to move up and take Bryce Young. Young's been much worse than C.J. Stroud so far and he's -- one would think -- keenly aware of that fact." For the rest of Brinson's Week 8 best bets, be sure to click here.Jordan Dajani: Falcons (-2.5) 20-16 over Titans. From Dajani: "The Titans are playing the 4-3 Falcons and Tennessee has lost 10 straight games vs. teams entering with a .500 or better record. That's the longest active streak in the NFL! " For the rest of Dajani's Week 8 best bets, be sure to click here.John Breech: Colts (+1) 27-20 over Saints. "It has not been a great year for Derek Carr and things are going to get worse for him when he gets outdueled by Gardner Minshew." For the rest of my Week 8 picks, be sure to click here. |
| For more Week 8 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBS Sports picks page here. |
| 5. Bold predictions for Week 8: Packers offense finally breaks out, banged-up 49ers top Bengals |
| Since you're probably tired of picks at this point, we're going to spice things up by giving out some bold predictions, which are like picks, except better. Garrett Podell has five bold predictions for Week 8, and we're going to share three of them below. Last week, he predicted that the Colts offense would have some success against the vaunted Browns defense and Indy responded by scoring 38 points. |
| Let's see what Garrett has in store for us this week. |
| Bold predictions for Week 8: |
| 1. Packers finally score 21 points or more. "The Packers offense has been stuck in the mud across the last month of football: they have scored 20 or fewer points in four consecutive games, their longest such streak since 2005. Although Jordan Love has struggled at times, one area where he's been solid is against the blitz as he is one of eight quarterbacks this season with multiple touchdowns (two) and no interceptions against the blitz. No team blitzes at a higher rate than the Minnesota Vikings under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores. ... Something has to give, and Love will hang in there just enough to get the Packers offense in the end zone at least three times."2. Mike Vrabel's perfect post-bye record comes to an end against Falcons. "Under Vrabel, they are 5-0 in the game after their bye week. Despite that run of success, the 4-3 Atlanta Falcons, the NFC South division leaders are going to come into Nashville and leave with a victory. Tennessee's offense is the primary reason for that as they have scored under 28 points in 23 consecutive games, the longest such streak in team history. Sunday likely won't change that streak with second-round rookie Will Levis making his NFL debut as the starting quarterback in place of an injured Ryan Tannehill while 2022 third-round pick Malik Willis is also reportedly going to play. "3. 49ers will beat Bengals with Sam Darnold or a banged-up Brock Purdy. "Even if the 49ers have to start Sam Darnold, San Francisco will still win. Darnold ranks last in completion percentage (59.7%), touchdown to interception ratio (61-55) and passer rating (78.2) among 26 active quarterbacks with 50 or more career starts. But, the 49ers have Christian McCaffrey, the NFL's leading rusher (598) and the Bengals have the fourth-worst rushing defense in football, allowing 142.8 rushing yards per game in 2023 CMC will get in the end zone multiple times to power the 49ers past a Bengals squad that has the worst total offense, averaging 256.3 yards per game, in the entire NFL." |
| Garrett has five bold predictions for Week 8, and you can check out all of them by clicking here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Tyreek Hill says he's playing against Patriots |
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| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Tyreek Hill back at practice. The Dolphins got a scare when Tyreek Hill didn't practice on Wednesday, but it looks like nothing is going to stop him from playing on Sunday against the Patriots. Hill made it very clear that he plans on playing this week despite the injury. If you have him in Fantasy, please take note. Dalvin Cook might request a trade. The Jets running back isn't happy with his role in New York, and because of that, he might request a trade. "It's frustrating," Cook said of his role. "It's new for me. I come from getting the ball 20 times a game, or however many times. Of course it's frustrating. It's something that I've been adapting to." If the Jets are going to trade Cook, they have four days to get a deal done.
Daniel Jones out for Week 8 ... possibly longer: The Giants will once again turn to Tyrod Taylor to run the offense against the New York Jets on Sunday. Jones was ruled out for a third straight week on Friday with a neck injury and coach Brian Daboll says he's not sure when to expect Jones back in the lineup.Deshaun Watson gives no timetable for his return. The Browns QB, who won't be playing on Sunday against Seattle, doesn't seem to have any idea when he might return to the field. "Right now, it's just rehabbing and trying to come back as strong as possible as soon as I possibly can," Watson said. "I'm not sure if its gonna linger or if it's not. ... We're not in a space where I should be out there." You can read Watson's full comments here. Chicago suburb eyeing the Bears. With the Bears future up in the air, five different Illinois cities have made a pitch to lure the team away from Chicago and now, you can add a sixth. According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Country Club Hills is also joining the fold to try and get the Bears. You can read more about the situation here. Arlington Heights still seems like the front-runner to land the Bears, but there's a tax issue that has to be squared away before that can happen.
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| | | | | College Football on CBS | | NFL on CBS | Saturday on CBS, a full day of college football kicks off with Big Ten action between Indiana and #10 Penn State. Then at 3:30 PM ET, the SEC on CBS features #1 Georgia facing Florida. It's all coming up on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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| | Sunday, it's another NFL on CBS doubleheader. The early games feature Trevor Lawrence and the Jag on the road against the Steelers. Later, Burrow's Bengals try to stop McCaffrey and the 49ers. It all begins at 12 PM ET with JB and the guys on The NFL Today. Watch mon CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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