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Hi Everyone,
After approximately six weeks of shelter in place across the globe, it looks like many countries are finally getting ready to open up again, at least in a limited and cautious fashion. Let's take a moment to breath a sigh of relief.
Alright, the moment's over.
Practically speaking, even if we don't see a resurgence of cases, it's still gonna be a very long time before life returns to anything resembling normal. For myself, I could care less about what businesses and services resume, but if they could open the schools back up, that would be nice.
One thing I have been very pleased about is the way that everyone seems to be adapting to working from home and managing to stay even more connected than before. For example, when the order came, I had to cancel three different conferences that were scheduled between March and June.
Now, with the power of the Internet, I'm doing four conferences a month. Tonight I'll be appearing at Virtual Blockchain Week, which is being hosted by the boys from Bad Crypto and is completely free. So be sure to join me there at 8:40 PM EST. There's actually an amazing line up, and did I mention it's free? |
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Of course, you might think to yourself... "it's not the same. You can't really network at a virtual conference."
Wrong!!!
Last night, the VBW VIP group of about 40 participants did a really cool event called "breakout rooms," where we hopped from group to group every 15 minutes. In two hours, I managed to connect with more people than I ever would irl, and I didn't spend a cent on airfare or hotels or spend any time away from my home and family.
It's a brave new world. |
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No Limits
Oil is tanking again, but that's nothing new. The market seems to be taking it in stride, and even though crude is now sub $13 on the front contract, the Dow is managing to hold a gain of nearly 1.5%. Sure, we can claim optimism over the announcement that New York will begin opening anew in mid-May, but those of you who read the QE Newsletter regularly know the real reason that the market is only 16% off its all time high right now.
When those who are in charge of creating the money are buying, it's kind of hard for prices to fall.
Case in point, here's the top headline from Asia this morning... |
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To be clear, the only thing that's changed here is the rhetoric. The Bank of Japan has always been happy to buy as many government bonds as the government is willing to sell. The only reason for the "limitations" was to manage the market's expectations, but these limits could always be raised as needed.
This week is a very special one for Wall Street as well, when the remaining FAANG stocks report their Q1 earnings. We heard from Netflix already. Google will go tomorrow, Facebook on Wednesday, and Thursday Amazon and Apple.
All are expected to forego the tradition of giving their forward guidance on how they're performing in Q2. |
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Fresh High
Bitcoin printed a fresh, multi-week high this morning, but as of this writing, it has pulled back a bit. It's entirely possible that we're now in a temporary bull trap, and we may test $7,000 to the downside again. In fact, this would be well within the current upward facing channel. |
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Of course, with everything going on right now, it could also just bust through the top and zoom toward the next point of resistance, possibly near $10,000. There's really no way to know. Past performance isn't really an indication of future results, nor does it really matter much to me.
More than the chart, I just keep watching the countdown timer, which now reads just two weeks to the halving.
Halve an amazing day ahead. If you enjoy this newsletter, feel free to share with friends and family, and definitely don't forget to wash your hands clean!
Best regards, |
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Mati Greenspan Analysis, Advisory, Money Management |
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