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November 19, 2020

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Hi Everyone,

Just because some vaccines have been invented, it doesn't mean we're out of the woods.

The global economy is hurting in so many ways, and it should be clear to all investors that there is a lot of pain out there that still hasn't been priced into the markets.

I apologize for starting off on a down note today. All markets seem a bit lethargic at the moment after some really incredible gains, so I guess now is the time for consolidation and reflection, whether we want it to be or not.

The data would seem to agree. U.S. weekly unemployment numbers announced this morning have made a sizable tick in the wrong direction.

Zooming in on the numbers, we can see that analysts were expecting (last brown bar) them to continue sloping downwards, but surprisingly, analysts are not always right, and we can see the blue bar peaking up as 742,000 more Americans have filed for unemployment assistance.

The number failed to go down for the first time in six weeks.

Well, I guess it makes sense with the second wave of the pandemic now hitting hard, but it's still tough to swallow that the number of people filing unemployment claims is consistently four times higher than the all-time high that existed before the pandemic.

Dominated

If there is any concern on investors' minds, however, it has not apparent anywhere in the market.

Yeah, things are pretty flat at this exact moment. Volatility is down. Stocks are consolidating slightly back into the top tech names, and bonds haven't budged all day.

This feeling is also perfectly reflected in the crypto market, as we can see bitcoin is pretty much flat on the day and altcoins are completely confused as to what to do.

Some have continued the rally as if nothing is happening, and some are selling off like it's 2018.

Meanwhile, bitcoin continues to gain market share, as the BTC dominance index trucks ever higher, currently topping 67%.

Speaking of being dominated, and also being lethargic, the U.S. dollar has also been testing her lows lately, and is now back on our emergency radar screen.

If the dollar continues much lower than it is now, we will need to urgently buy more bitcoin. Within the currency markets, since the beginning of November, it's clear to see it's getting clobbered.

Bitcoin in the media

Not sure who it was that said mainstream media is ignoring this bitcoin rally, but we're gonna do our best to prove them wrong.

This graph, shown on Bloomberg yesterday, does a great job of highlighting how this rally is barely even being covered by the multinational news conglomerate.

Interestingly, data from our friends at LunarCrush shows that even though Bloomberg may be ignoring it, there has been a noticeable spike in overall news stories on the web featuring cryptocurrencies.

Have an awesome day!!!

Mati Greenspan

Analysis, Advisory, Money Management