| | | Trusted by over 100,000 blockchain investors. |
|
| HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS |
| |
Hey Everyone,
The issue with hard data and research is that many times people tend to place more or less weight on specific facts, depending on whether or not that information happens to strengthen their case.
This is known as confirmation bias, and the fictional character Sherlock Holmes summed it up quite nicely in the following quote.
"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts."
For example, it's far too easy for economists who've been banging the hyperinflation drum to dismiss yesterday's U.S. inflation data as if it's some sort of anomaly, when actually the figures were blissfully normal.
When objectively analyzing data, it is usually the outliers, the extremes, that should be more heavily scrutinized.
Conversely, when a number comes in that is quite average given historic norms, we should be less quick to try and discount it.
Of course, we never want to fall into the trap of placing too much weight on a single data point, so here we can see the Consumer Price Index over the last few years. Feel free to draw your own conclusions. |
|
Yay Fed? The Federal Reserve for their part has every reason to celebrate a monthly CPI reading of 0.3%. I know we get on their case quite often in this newsletter, but the Fed deserves a ton of credit for maintaining semblance of order in the economy and hitherto maintaining an upward market trajectory in the face of a global pandemic, even if it did come at the cost of blowing the wealth gap wide open.
As I had the pleasure of discussing on Australia's The Pulse this morning, the pandemic has affected areas of the market in many different ways.
It's quite chaotic in many ways, but if indeed a short period of higher than average inflation is the only shock to the economy, then I'd say we're in pretty good shape.
|
|
Humble apologies
When the sun sets this evening the Jewish Day of Atonement, Yom Kippur begins.
For myself, I will spend the evening in the synagogue dressed in traditional white garb pouring out my heart before my creator, but before that I would like to take this opportunity to apologize to you my dear readers, partners, clients, journalists and everyone for anything and everything I may have said or done that caused you harm, weather financially, mentally or otherwise. I hope you can forgive me.
May you and your family be inscribed in the book of life, the book of happiness, wealth, health and abundant prosperity.
Please note that there will be no note tomorrow. We will resume on Friday.
Warm regards, |
|
Mati Greenspan Analysis, Advisory, Money Management |
|
|
|
|
|
|
