Volatility, or the degree of price turbulence, in bitcoin (BTC) remains suppressed, consistent with the calm in U.S. stock and bond markets. The low volatility will likely continue after Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, according to some crypto traders. The Fed will announce the rate decision at 14:00 ET accompanied by a statement, the Summary of Economic Projections and a new "dot plot" of interest-rate estimates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will follow with a press conference 30 minutes later. To tame inflation, the central bank has raised rates by 525 basis points since March 2022, with the early phase of the so-called tightening cycle injecting volatility into the liquidity-addicted crypto and traditional markets.

Sam Bankman-Fried’s dad, Joe Bankman, was paid a $200,000 salary by FTX’s U.S. division, according to the filing from FTX’s bankruptcy estate, which just sued the parents. But that wasn’t enough, he said, telling an FTX executive in a Jan. 12, 2022, message that he was supposed to get $1 million annually starting the previous month, according to a filing. Then he emailed his son. “Gee, Sam I don’t know what to say here,” he wrote, according to the filing. “This is the first [I] have heard of the 200K a year salary! Putting Barbara on this.” Barbara is former FTX CEO Bankman-Fried’s mom, Barbara Fried.

Bitcoin trading volumes on Binance have tumbled this month as lawsuits and regulatory scrutiny mount on the world’s largest crypto exchange. According to K33 Research, Binance’s seven-day average spot BTC volume is down 57% since the beginning of September versus roughly flat readings at a number of other exchanges. Volumes at U.S.-based competitor Coinbase are 9% higher. The dramatic decline comes as Binance is in the crosshairs of regulators around the world following a string of lawsuits, license rejections and voluntary withdrawals. Prosecutors at the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) are reportedly weighing charges against the company, while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) three months ago sued Binance, the exchange’s U.S. entity Binance.US and founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, alleging breaches of multiple federal securities laws.

A message from Phemex

There is an uncanny sense of calm in the $25 trillion U.S. Treasury market even as the Federal Reserve shows its resolve to keep borrowing costs higher. The tranquility is supportive of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The MOVE index, an options-based measure of volatility in Treasury notes, fell to 96.61 on Friday, the lowest since the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, according to charting platform TradingView. At press time, it is down almost 50% from the peak of 198 registered this March.

Treasury debt securities, issued by the government and widely considered the world's safest and most liquid instruments, have risen to the apex of global collateral and securities finance.

- Omkar Godbole

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