You probably heard Vice President J.D. Vance worry aloud during this past summer's campaign about falling birth rates. And you may have heard the predictions that deaths will surpass births in the U.S. by 2040.
Well, AL.com's William Thornton reports that Alabama is ahead of that curve -- and not in a way that makes economists optimistic.
Since 2020 -- didn't everything seem to pivot one way or another that year? -- Alabama has had more residents die than be born. That reflects a trend nationally and in many nations. And to be clear, our population has continued to increase because of the migration of people into the state from other states and countries.
But we're in a bit of a moment, demographically, as we now, for the first time in modern history, are seeing a net loss in Alabama's birth/death numbers.
If we ignore migration numbers, in 1990, Alabama gained more than 24,000 people through births minus deaths. That has dwindled through the years, and during the first three years of this decade we've lost more than 22,000 people. A higher death rate from the COVID pandemic almost certainly hastened our reaching net negative numbers.
Birth numbers in Alabama haven't fallen off the table. But they are down compared to previous decades even with a higher population. And they're no longer keeping pace with deaths.
Because of migration, we're not dealing with a statewide population decline right now. Falling population numbers would be a major concern because they can negatively affect both the supply and demand sides of an economy. With fewer workers, production declines, and with fewer consumers, demand for goods and services declines.
Our workforce, by a percentage of the population, is already lower than the nation's. Fewer births now will affect that number in coming years, and state officials worry it could hurt Alabama's efforts to lure businesses.
Nyesha Black, the director of demographics at the University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research, has been addressing the issues with falling birth rates. She said people want to blame our low workforce participation on people not wanting to work but that a big factor is that we have an older population. And many folks here are less likely to work during their retirement because of our low cost of living.
The message here? Here's an optional takeaway for adults: Get off the anxiety-inducing social media, reintroduce yourself to your spouse and make some young'ns.
