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| Wednesday, July 3, 2024 |
| It's Buffalo Bills Day! |
| Are we having fun yet? |
| The holiday weekend is right around the corner, and we are less than a month away from the August 1 Hall of Fame Game between the Bears and Texans. Might we see Caleb Williams on a football field in under a month? Probably not, but maybe! If anything about the Chicago Bears franchise feels predictable, it's that we as observers will be kept on our toes. Maybe we do see Williams in action on the first day of August! |
| I am having fun! I have thoroughly enjoyed preparing these team-by-team previews. I've only created three of them, and already, I feel like I've learned a ton. If you missed it, Monday's preview highlighted the New York Jets and New England Patriots. |
| My favorite aspect of these team-by-team previews has been the slight detours we take to explore league-wide topics. I found Monday's exercise of comparing first-read target rates to a player's overall target per route run rate interesting, not only as it pertained to Garrett Wilson's target upside, but as an independent idea. In Tuesday's team preview, we set aside some time to appreciate Mike McDaniel and how he's been able to effectively shrug off poor offensive line play through ingenious use of pre-snap motion and quick passing. |
| If you are a new subscriber or missed either of those newsletters, no worries! We're working on creating a space to host previous newsletters. Rest assured that you'll be able to read all of my ramblings to your heart's fullest content at some point this summer! |
| Today, we have another interesting team to preview. The Buffalo Bills give us our first opportunity to have a nuanced discussion about ranges of outcomes. Projecting this Bills offense feels completely different than the offenses that we've discussed so far. The Jets and Dolphins offenses are concentrated on two or three star players. Barring injuries to key offensive teammates, each of Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle offer a relatively predictable projection. Touchdowns are the factor most-likely to swing any of those players drastically towards the top or bottom range of perceivable outcomes. In the case of the Patriots, a league-low implied point total creates an artificial cap to the top of any perceivable range of outcomes. |
| The Bills have the fifth-highest implied point total, according to Vegas lookahead lines, and the Dallas Cowboys are the only offense that I have projected to create more total plays. This offense offers the potential for massive Fantasy production. Where will it come from? We really can only speculate, given the ambiguity around the roles of Josh Allen's 2024 pass-catchers. This amount of ambiguity presents hypothetical upside, but it also creates room for players to fall way below median projections. We just saw Patrick Mahomes finish as the QB8 Fantasy scoring with a group of ambiguous targets. |
| The range of outcomes for this entire offense -- and by nature, all of the key players in it -- is wide. Let's explore some potential paths to disappointment ("floor" outcomes) for this Joe Brady-led unit as well as how the Bills could exceed expectations and provide paths to upside ("ceiling" outcomes). |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis in these team previews, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (T-2nd) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 27.1 (12th) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 21.3 (7th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has an offseason to implement his scheme. |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Cut starting center Mitch Morse, moved guard Connor McGovern to center, promoted David Edwards to starting guardAdded a center in Round 5 and a guard in Round 6 |
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| What do the Joe Brady changes mean for Fantasy? |
| Everyone expects Jim Harbaugh to establish the run like it's the early 2000's. Brady actually brings similar, if not more run-heavy tendencies! |
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| A career 36-to-42 pass-to-run touchdown rate is nuts! |
| Who stands to benefit from this in Buffalo? Of course, some of the rushing touchdowns will go to the running back group. James Cook was one of the least-involved running backs when his team was in scoring distance in 2023, though. |
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| Maybe Cook will get more of these opportunities in 2024, but Buffalo's recent acquisitions hint that the team wants to find a cheap power complement for him in the backfield. After kicking the tires on late-career backs like Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, and Leonard Fournette, the Bills used a Round 4 pick on Ray Davis out of Kentucky. He could be the short-yardage answer that the Bills have been looking for. |
| We'll spend some more time with this backfield in a moment. Right now, the focus is on Joe Brady's offense. Probably the most likely candidate to account for an expected increase in rushing touchdowns is Josh Allen. |
| One of the things I learned from reading Jared Smola's "132 Things I Learned Doing 2024 Fantasy Football Projections" was that Allen's rushing increased dramatically with Brady calling plays. |
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| I looked into this more, and at least as it pertained to his overall rushing workload, I suspect that Allen's increase may have had a lot to do with Buffalo preparing for the playoffs. If comparing Allen's late-season push under Dorsey, it looks very similar to what we saw starting in Week 13 of the 2022 season. |
| I did find one substantial change that offers reason for optimism regarding Allen's rushing touchdowns, specifically. Brady used Allen as a designed rusher when in the red zone way more than Dorsey ever did. |
| Allen had 15 designed red zone rushes in seven games with Brady, over two per game. In 27 games with Dorsey, Allen had 25 designed rushes in the red zone. Allen scored five red zone rushing touchdowns on designed runs in 27 games with Dorsey. He scored seven red zone rushing TDs on designed runs in seven games with Brady. |
| Should we go ahead and pencil him in for 20+ rushing touchdowns in 2024, then? He averaged one designed rushing TD per game with Brady! Add his league-best red zone scrambling ability on top of that, and Allen legitimately could break his currently-held record (tied with Jalen Hurts) for the most rushing TDs by a QB in a season (15). |
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| Let's take a step back from the Brady splits for a second. Allen has finished with 29-to-37 passing touchdowns in each of the past four seasons. |
| Should we really expect a superstar QB in the prime of his career to suddenly take a major step backward statistically as a passer because of an offensive coordinator change? Brady's splits as an OC are wildly run-heavy, but his quarterbacks for the bulk of that split were Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater. Yes, Brady's Bills posted as many rushing TDs as passing TDs during his 2023 tenure, but that was a relatively small sample size in which he was coaching for the playoffs and his chances at retaining the OC role, it's no surprise that he leaned into what was working. |
| Still only 34 years old, Brady could prove to be more flexible than expected. With a full offseason available to him, it's possible that Brady installs an offense different what we've seen from him in the past. Maybe Brady decides that the best course of action for a team with Super Bowl aspirations is not to pound its 190-pound starting running back and franchise QB into the dirt with a million run plays. |
| If we see Brady open the playbook up a bit and air things out, which Bills players are the most likely to maximize on their opportunities? |
| Can rookie Keon Coleman be a WR1? |
| I have probably spent too much time thinking about Keon Coleman this summer, especially if the Bills really are going to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the red zone. But, we are here to consider ranges of outcomes! If we see Allen push into the high 30s in passing touchdowns again, his big-bodied rookie receiver could be a slam dunk Fantasy pick. |
| I have my concerns when it comes to Coleman's ability to play the role that the Bills seemingly drafted him to fill. Entering the NFL Draft with Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir on the depth chart, it felt clear that the Bills needed an "X" receiver to work the deep perimeter while that trio operated in the short-to-intermediate area. Players like Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Legette, Adonai Mitchell, Jermaine Burton, and Javon Baker were the prototypes who felt like realistic "X" receiver candidates that might be selected by the Bills. |
| Coleman has the size to theoretically fill that role, but I'm not so sure that he has the speed or route-running ability. Matt Harmon had this to say in Coleman's prospect profile on ReceptionPerception.com: |
| "While it's tempting to want to throw a big wideout with a large catch radius like Coleman out at X-receiver, it's a riskier proposition than ever in today's NFL. Guys who don't get open at X do not sustain long stretches of consistent play. And the lack of separation against man and press coverage is a real issue for Coleman. |
| His 62.7% success rate vs. man coverage isn't disaster-level, it's a good deal below the prospect average. The 55.2% success rate vs. press is the more troubling, both in terms of where it ranks in the historic database and the limitations it puts on his projection. You cannot find a single quality starting X-receiver in the NFL right now who struggles to win against press coverage. That player does not exist." |
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| "On the positive side, his 80.2% success rate vs. zone coverage is a solid mark at the 59th percentile. Coleman showed a great understanding of working himself open against zone on in-breaking routes like the post, dig and slant. All those are critical routes on the tree for a receiver operating on the inside. |
| The reason I keep mentioning this big slot transition is not just that I think Coleman specifically translates well to that position, it's also one of the few ways a player with these success rates can find success as a long-term productive starter." |
| This backed what I found in Coleman's data profile. He was productive in specific situations and seems like a real red zone threat, but his lackluster target rates and middling man coverage data indicate a player with potential problems getting open. |
| I dug a bit deeper and found a few interesting nuggets. He did show some target earning ability in college. While sharing the field with Jayden Reed at Michigan State, Coleman drew almost as many targets and created more receiving yardage. |
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| That 27% target per route run rate without Reed off the field is decent! It's still a bit underwhelming for an NFL prospect competing against CFB defenses, but it's better than Coleman's career 24% rate. |
| I found something similar in Coleman's data during his one season at Florida State. Coleman's TPRR rate spiked to 30% when teammate Johnny Wilson was not on the field during their final collegiate season. |
| Coleman's production in two games without Wilson: |
11 targets -- 9-140-1 receiving
11 targets -- 7-66-2 receiving |
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| At least in a few situations, we have seen Coleman demand target volume and produce like a WR1. That's something we cannot say about AD Mitchell. |
| So, if you are simply not a believer in the rest of Buffalo's receiving room, then maybe it makes sense to be a believer in Coleman. If no one else on this team is going to demand targets, then maybe Coleman can. |
| I will throw one more bucket of cold water at you before you make up your mind: |
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| Will Dalton Kincaid's role expand? |
| As a rookie, Kincaid was used in a very limited role. He was rarely trusted as a blocker. Only 31% of his snaps were blocking snaps, one of the lowest rates among qualified TEs. He only played 51% of Buffalo's run plays, which could be a huge issue if we do in fact see Brady try to run the ball half of the time offensively. |
| Kincaid's role as a receiver was relatively limited too. Among 38 tight ends with 250+ routes run, Kincaid's average depth of target (5.9 yards) ranked 28th. |
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| Will Kincaid be used more down the field than he was as a rookie? He's not necessarily an elite athlete (4.68 second 40-time) in the way Kyle Pitts or George Kittle are, but Kincaid did have a career 10.6-yard aDOT at the collegiate level. He was considered an elite prospect and was selected first among an awesome TE draft class. |
| Does Kincaid need to be used more down the field to offer Fantasy upside? Not necessarily, especially if playing in PPR formats. Evan Engram, David Njoku, and Jake Ferguson all had lower average depths of target than Kincaid in 2023. If Kincaid can pile up receptions in the way those players did, he could print PPR points. And if he ends up accounting for a large portion of the vacated receiving touchdowns in Buffalo, then Kincaid could provide top-three Fantasy TE upside even with a low aDOT. |
| I am a bit fixated on his potential to work down the field because the Bills need someone to do it. Especially in the scenario in which Coleman isn't ready to contribute as a rookie, this team will offer a glaring lack of downfield threats for opposing defenses to worry about. |
| I think Kincaid might be able to be that threat! Let's dig into the weeds. |
| A player's "route depth" refers to the distance at which the initial cut in their route occurred. Kincaid's average route depth in 2023 was 7.0 yards. That rate tied Mark Andrews and was higher than the average route depths of Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce. Kincaid's average route depth was also higher than players who I think of as athletic downfield threats in Luke Musgrave and Mike Gesicki. That's interesting! He had the ninth-highest average route depth among 37 tight ends with 250+ routes run. |
| I filtered out any plays with a route depth below seven yards, and I found Kincaid to rank just 16th in yards per route run among 21 tight ends with at least 100 such routes. Discouraging, right? Well, not necessarily. It's hard to produce yardage if you aren't thrown the ball. Kincaid's target per route run rate on such routes was 11%, down from the group average of 17%. Only Evan Engram, Logan Thomas, Tyler Higbee, and Cade Otton had lower target rates. |
| In Engram's case, it is discouraging to rank so low in this metric. Kincaid was in his first year, though. We could see him evolve! We could see Allen target him more often on those downfield routes, especially without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis operating as the primary downfield reads. |
| When targeted down the field, Kincaid was actually pretty great. Among 13 tight ends with 20+ targets coming at least 10 yards from the line of scrimmage, only Kittle and Kelce ranked ahead of Kincaid in yards per target on those downfield targets. |
| Ultimately, none of this will matter if Kincaid's playing time is limited. We need him out there running routes. I do think it matters, though, that he offered optimistic signals as a downfield weapon. That evidence offers reason to believe that the Bills might find reason to get him on the field as much as possible -- Buffalo needs receiving threats! |
| Maybe Samuel or Shakir are the WR1 dark horses |
| Curtis Samuel has been used as a downfield weapon at times in his career. You might not remember it, but the dude ran a 4.31 at the combine. He's got speed to burn, and offensive play callers attempted to use it early in his career. |
| Samuel's average route depth by season: |
7.1 yards -- Year 1
9.5 yards -- Year 2
9.1 yards -- Year 3
6.9 yards -- Year 4 |
| Samuel's average depth of target dropped from 14.7 yards in Year 3 to 7.3 yards in Year 4. His Year 4 aDOT was significantly lower than his Year 3 average route depth. That's a really drastic stylistic shift, and it was pioneered by Joe Brady. |
| Samuel had not registered a slot rate above 33% in any of his first three seasons, and in his first and only season with Brady as his offensive coordinator, his slot rate rose to 61%. From a yards per route run perspective, Samuel's season with Brady was the most productive of his career. His yard per route run rate rose from 0.97 in Year 3 to 1.94 in Year 4. |
| For his career, Samuel has been more efficient (1.49 yards per route run) outside of the slot than inside (1.26). Over the past two seasons, Samuel's 2.03 yards per route run from the perimeter ranks him 21st at the WR position. Even though he did not succeed from the perimeter early in his career, we have reasons to believe that Samuel can succeed outside of the slot at this point in his career. His splits when pressed at the line of scrimmage are slightly better than when not, and those rates have only improved as his career has progressed. Matt Harmon graded Samuel as one of the best man coverage beaters in 2023 and has loved his tape against man coverage for several years now. |
| When speaking about Samuel, Brady said, "he can play any of the positions — play inside, play outside, play in the backfield… The more Curtis Samuels on our football team, the better." |
| If guessing which receiver is more likely to stay on the field in two receiver sets, I'd choose Samuel over Khalil Shakir. |
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| I am a huge fan of Shakir's. Hear me gush about him here. Shakir is dope. So is Samuel. As individual players, I love the grouping of Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid, and I think that Coleman is a fun complement as a potentially lethal contested catch threat whose gravity -- when combined with the ever-present need to spy Allen defensively to prevent scrambling -- might be enough to command defensive attention when in scoring distance and create space for these technicians to win in single-coverage. |
| The question remains, though -- how does this offense threaten defenses down the field when outside of the red zone? Samuel has the speed, and so does Shakir, but we don't have any film-based or data-based reasons to believe that either poses much of a threat to consistently take the top off of defenses. Shakir made a decent number of downfield catches last year. I've watched every reception of his career (I need to get a life), and very few of them involved him beating a defender and drawing a downfield target. Shakir's downfield receptions came almost exclusively in two scenarios -- him finding holes in zones and Allen finding him as the third or fourth read or defenses losing him as a play breaks down when Allen leaves the pocket. Shakir has a great skill set to pair with Allen, no doubt! But we're looking for someone to consistently threaten defenses as capable of beating them down the field for 15+ yard gains. |
| This brings us back to Kincaid. He's the most likely player to win down the field for the Bills, right? |
| There's risk associated with Kincaid's role. Any chance he has of realistically tapping into Fantasy upside is going to be tied to playing time. He registered a 71% route participation as a rookie, ranking 11th at TE. That rate fell to 65% in games that Dawson Knox suited up. Kincaid is the riskiest tight end you can invest a mid-to-early pick in. There's a wildly wide range of outcomes given the uncertainty around his role. At the top of that range, we find double-digit touchdown potential paired with position-best yardage potential if the downfield role materializes and Knox does not affect his playing time. |
| Samuel is the player who I have drafted the most of from this offense, as I believe he offers the highest chances of exceeding expectations relative to his ADP. If looking for ultimate upside, Kincaid is your most-likely league-winner. |
| We've already hit on the only Bills player who comes close to Samuel in my draft exposure, and that is rookie RB Ray Davis. |
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| Ray Davis is one of my favorite late-round picks in all of Fantasy |
| "Big Play" Ray has some receiving chops too, bet you didn't expect that! I sure didn't. At first glance, the 5-foot-8 and 216-pound rookie running back is easy to type-cast as a between-the-tackles grinder. And he's good at doing just that, so that's a conclusion that I initially landed on when digging into his rushing data. I think he's a lot more than that, though! |
| Over his final two collegiate seasons, Davis piled up 492 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns on 76 targets. He registered route participation rates of 57% and 60% in those two seasons, one with Kentucky and one with Vanderbilt. For two different coaching staffs, Davis was trusted to play a lot of passing downs and he was productive with his opportunities. |
| I'm not sure what type of opportunity Davis will receive to begin his rookie season, but I do believe he is capable of contributing if the Bills ever feel a need to trust him. |
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| Alright, let's give James Cook a little love. Cook is not just a big play threat. He's a dawg. Cook has been consistent for an early-career undersized back, especially one who has relatively limited experience after splitting backfields for his entire career at Georgia. Cook offers explosive play ability, he's an exciting receiving threat, and he has been willing to grind it out and consistently create positive yardage in Buffalo's power-run scheme. |
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| Both of these backs suit what Joe Brady likes to do well. Ray Davis was a below-average rusher through his first four collegiate seasons before transferring to Kentucky and thriving in a power-based run game designed by Liam Coen (now the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play-caller). |
| The Bills don't seem inclined to use Cook as a goal-line back, but I don't think that means that Buffalo does not still see Cook as a vital part of the offense. I'd be pretty surprised if Davis cuts into Cook's playing time outside of the red zone. The Bills use Cook in some cool and unique ways. |
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| The RB position as a group posted an average depth of target behind the line of scrimmage in 2023. James Cook's aDOT was 2.54 yards, the highest at the RB position. |
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| Cook was one of just three backs with 100+ air yards in 2023. What does it mean?! I'm not sure, but it's provocative. |
| Below, you'll find the 16 running back seasons that resulted in 200+ rush attempts and 100+ air yards over the past 10 seasons: |
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| Cook finished near the bottom of this range, even while playing in one of the NFL's best offenses. He scored just six touchdowns in 2023, four through the air and two on the ground. Of course, his red zone role is a limiting factor. But could Cook still prove to be a Fantasy value with a high-upside receiving role and the ability to create explosive plays as a rusher? Absolutely! I have not drafted him much, but occasionally I find that a draft room simply does not want to click his name. I'm totally fine grabbing Cook in those scenarios. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July! Thursday's team is the Kansas City Chiefs as we dive into the AFC West! If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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