| | | | Tuesday, August 23, 2022 | | In yesterday's newsletter, we covered the biggest winners and biggest losers from Week 2 of the preseason, and now it's time to take a look at the fallout from those games. In today's newsletter, we're taking a look at changes in ADP and checking in on position battles from around the league to see where things stand with a little over two weeks until Week 1. | | If you've got a draft this week, make sure you've got our Draft Day Cheat Sheet page bookmarked, because it's got pretty much everything you need to get ready to make the right picks. And, if you've got any questions, send them my way at [email protected] because I'll be doing a mailbag column answering your toughest questions heading into one of the biggest draft weekends of the year. | | And, if you've got more questions, you've got a chance to win a Zoom call with our FFT crew as part of the FFT Draft-A-Thon to get some answers. The FFT Draft-A-Thon is coming up at the end of the month, and our St. Jude Children's Hospital donation page has a bunch of great items up for auction, with all of the proceeds going to help a great cause at St. Jude. Whatever you can donate helps and we'll make sure you help you out in return. | | Now, he's a look at the latest ADP changes, position battle updates, and the injuries, news, and notes you need to know about in today's newsletter. | | | | ADP review | | | | One of my favorite points in the Fantasy Football Draft season is when people decide to just throw average draft position out of the window and go get their guys. There is so much talk about ADP and whether guys are a "good value," but by the last week or so of drafts, when most drafts are happening, people tend to worry a lot less about the value and a lot more about making sure they get their guys. | | We're not at that point yet, but we are at a point where values are going to shift quite a bit each week. Jamey Eisenberg's ADP Review piece Monday highlighted the moves rookie running backs like Brian Robinson and Dameon Pierce have made in ADP – along with his favorite and least favorite values at each position – and both were indeed among the fastest risers in ADP over the past week, according to NFC drafts. | | In fact, of the five biggest risers among players being drafted in the top 150 right now, all of them are rookies. Which makes perfect sense – we're two weeks into the preseason and about four weeks into training camp, which is enough time for coaches to start to shuffle depth charts and start challenging young players to see if they can handle more challenges. | | Not all of them will rise to the occasion, and we'll surely look back on some of the biggest movers in late ADP as mistakes. But you can't ignore the shifting landscape around you. You just have to know how to work your way through it. | | Here are the five biggest risers and fallers in ADP over the past week. | | | | Biggest risers | | Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC -- Prev: 174.35; Now: 122.5George Pickens, WR, PIT -- Prev: 161.01; Now: 120.21Brian Robinson, RB, WAS -- Prev: 163.09; Now: 127.74Romeo Doubs, WR, GB -- Prev: 166.46; Now: 143.81Dameon Pierce, RB, HOU – Prev: 112.34; Now: 90.27 | | None of these are particularly surprising, and I don't think any of them are egregious, either. A pick in the 10th round or later or any of Pacheco, Pickens, or Robinson makes perfect sense; Doubs being a bit later than the rest also makes sense, seeing as he's potentially still running fourth in the Packers WR hierarchy despite drawing a lot of attention in the preseason, and that's without Christian Watson, who was drafted two rounds ahead of him in the NFL Draft. | | Pierce is the one I want to keep a close eye on in my next few drafts, though. He's gone as high as 55th overall in at least one league, and I think that's pretty much impossible to justify; even his price of 84.1 from Friday through Sunday isn't ideal. Yes, it looks like Pierce is the lead back for the Texans, but … it's still the Texans. | | It's not unreasonable to think Houston's offense will be better than it was last season -- it would be hard not to be, in fairness. They ranked dead last in rushing yards and yards per carry, while tying for the fewest rushing touchdowns a year ago, so they're starting from the basement. This wasn't a good offense for running backs in Fantasy, and I don't think it was just because the running backs weren't good. | | Which is to say, while I think Pierce is a pretty interesting prospect, I'm not particularly excited about him as a Fantasy option. Pierce spent four years in college and never had more than 106 carries or 19 catches, so expecting him to just dominate work in the NFL seems like a mistake, so he's probably going to be splitting work in a bad offense. Pierce profiles more like an RB3 who serves as a key depth piece, not someone you want to pencil into your lineup every week. | | Biggest fallers | | Antonio Gibson, RB, WAS -- Prev: 62.29; Now: 79.69Isaiah Spiller, RB, LAC -- Prev: 117.22; Now: 130.95Treylon Burks, WR, TEN -- Prev: 97.36; Now: 110.98Russell Gage, WR, TB -- Prev: 99.65; Now: 111.98Miles Sanders, RB, PHI -- Prev: 83.86; Now: 91.79 | | Again, all of these make sense, though I think Gage may be turning into a nice little value – Chris Godwin hasn't been cleared to play yet and Julio Jones is still learning the system, so Gage very well could still open the season as the No. 2 option in a high-volume passing game led by Tom Brady. He's unlikely to be a star, but Gage looks like a pretty solid PPR option to start the season. | | Gibson and Sanders are the two headline names here, and this doesn't even fully capture how far he's tumbled; he's actually going behind Pierce over the past three days. Brian Robinson looks like he has earned at least a share of the early-down work for the Commanders if he isn't just outright the lead back at this point. Gibson still has a path to being a Fantasy contributor, and potentially a very good one, but it probably requires at least one injury to Robinson or J.D. McKissic. | | Gibson played more in the McKissic role in preseason Week 2, and if he could carve out a split of the early-down work and a significant share of the passing game opportunities, Gibson could still end up being the best RB in this offense. But right now, I'm not sure I want to touch any of them inside of the top 100 picks. | | For more on recent ADP changes and to see Jamey's favorite and least-favorite values at each position, read his full piece here. | | | | Position Battle updates | | | | As I wrote about in yesterday's newsletter, position battles in training camp and the preseason represent just one snapshot in time -- they might tell us who is in the lead for playing time for Week 1, but they shouldn't be taken as gospel when it comes time to figure out who to draft. Taking an early-season backup can still make sense if you're aiming for the long run -- you just have to remind yourself that you aren't playing for just Week 1. | | With two preseason games done and a little over two weeks left until the games actually count, we've still got plenty of position battles left to be sorted out, and many of those will enter Week 1 with some ambiguity -- those are the players you need to be patient with. However, there are some competitions we can pretty confidently say we know who is in the lead, if not the outright winner already. Those are the situations you can start to react to a little more strongly in drafts this week. | | We'll break up the position battles based on those two criteria, starting with the few relevant spots we can probably make a call on now. | | We think we know the answer | | Texans RB – The assumption from Pierce sitting out Preseason Week 2 is that he's already locked up a healthy role, at least as the early-downs back. Marlon Mack might just be fighting for a roster spot between now and the cutdown date. Bills RB – Devin Singletary started the second preseason game and stayed in until the starters along the offensive line left, after which point he was replaced by third-year back Zack Moss. Rookie James Cook split time with Moss a little bit, so I think it's safe to say that Singletary remains the presumptive starter, with Moss and Cook potentially both figuring into complementary roles – talk out of Buffalo camp is that the Bills could keep all three backs active on game day. Singletary is the only one I'm considering as a potential Fantasy starter to open the season, but it's possible all three play enough that none of them have much value. Cook is a long-term upside play, not someone you should expect to contribute in Week 1. Chargers RB2 – Austin Ekeler is the starter, but there's going to be room for someone else to see playing time, albeit maybe not as much as you might think – Ekeler played 60% of the snaps in 12 of his 16 games last season. This isn't the Melvin Gordon era. That being said, the No. 2 RB role for the Chargers is a valuable one, even if the stand-alone value might be a bit limited. Justin Jackson averaged 18.8 points in five games with a snap share higher than 40% since 2018, and with Isaiah Spiller's availability for Week 1 in doubt due to an ankle injury, Joshua Kelley looks locked in as the No. 2 RB here. Spiller is still a viable late-round target, but Kelley currently looks like he'd get the first crack if something happens to Ekeler. | | It's still very much unclear | | Chiefs WR – JuJu Smith-Schuster is dealing with a knee injury and Mecole Hardman has a groin injury, so preseason Week 2 didn't tell us much – except that, even with two expected starters out, Skyy Moore still ran third on the depth chart. We can probably assume Moore isn't going to open the season with a significant role – he's still worth drafting late to stash – but what isn't clear is how the rest of the hierarchy is going to shake out. I'm still assuming Smith-Schuster will be the No. 2 target behind Travis Kelce, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling remains a worthy late-round target. Packers WR – We got a report last week indicating that Aaron Rodgers wants Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins to start at receiver, but Rodgers also strongly hinted that Doubs won't have to wait long to get an opportunity to make an impact – Rodgers said Doubs "is not going to be the standard for a normal rookie we've had here in the past." With Christian Watson cleared for team drills this week, he's another complicating factor, and my assumption is targets and snaps are going to be spread enough here that there won't be an obvious starting option. Falcons RB – Cordarrelle Patterson has been used sparingly this preseason, and I'm expecting he'll be part of a true committee after he seemingly wore down last season. Tyler Allgeier, the rookie fifth-rounder out of BYU most of the first-half snaps Monday, however he was also one of five running backs to see snaps with Marcus Mariota and the first-team offense, so this isn't super clear. That being said, Allgeier did play with the first-team offense this time around, something he didn't do last week, so that's a good sign. Right now, it seems like some combination of Patterson, Allgeier, and Damien Williams will get most of the touches for the Falcons, with Allgeier being worth drafting as a late-round sleeper on the chance he is able to emerge. Broncos WR – There has been some talk in camp that Courtland Sutton has been Russell Wilson's most-trusted target, with an ESPN.com story from last week standing out . However, there haven't exactly been many quotes from Wilson or the coaches in Denver on which of Jeudy or Sutton is the team's top target, so I'm still approaching this as if it's ambiguous – which means I'm a lot more likely to draft Jeudy at 53.03 than Sutton at 36.48. Dolphins RB – The Dolphins running game hasn't been particularly effective so far in the preseason after ranking 30th in rushing yards in 2021. Chase Edmonds still feels like the lead back here, with Raheem Mostert likely to split early-down work, though he's been limited through much of training camp coming back from knee surgery. The question is whether Sony Michel will factor into the game day plan – there may not be enough room for three backs to be Fantasy relevant here, but there definitely isn't enough room for three. The good news is, Edmonds is by far the most expensive of the trio and his ADP is just 87.64, so it's an inexpensive dice role no matter which one you target. Patriots RB – the Patriots gave all of their backs a chance to show what they can do on passing downs in preseason Week 2, which was interesting – Damien Harris was targeted three times and even lined up split out wide, something he's done just 18 times in three years, per ProFootballFocus.com. Rhamondre Stevenson has received some extended looks as a pass-catcher in camp as well, though if I were a betting man, my money would probably be on Ty Montgomery to play the majority of passing downs, at least early in the season. Harris and Stevenson figure to share early downs, with Harris likely the leader, though Stevenson still has more breakout potential if he can lock up a passing game role. None of them is drafted among the top-30 RBs or top-85 players overall, with Stevenson and Harris essentially going back to back in the eighth-round range. They're fine though, though if you're going with a zero-RB build, a final-round pick on Montgomery might be the more valuable pick. Seahawks QB – I think Geno Smith is the leader here, though that might be as much because Drew Lock missed the last week or so of camp plus a preseason game with COVID, costing him valuable reps. It doesn't really matter much, but Lock probably has a bit more upside if he could take a step forward. It's not clear if he's actually taken that step so far. Cardinals RB2 – James Conner is the clear-cut starter here, with Darrel Williams and Eno Benjamin slotting in behind him. Benjamin played 21 of 32 snaps with Trace McSorley in as the starter in Week 2 of the preseason, however, Williams' snaps all came early in the game, so it's genuinely hard to say who is in a better position. I lean Benjamin, with Williams more an insurance policy, but I don't expect to see either play as much as Chase Edmonds did last season – which is good news for James Conner's value. | | Injuries, News, and Notes | | JuJu Smith-Schuster dealing with a knee injury | | One player who hasn't been able to make much headway in the Chiefs depth chart battle over the past week-plus is JuJu Smith Schuster, who has been sidelined by a knee injury. Smith-Schuster is still not at practice Monday and he has missed each of the team's two preseason games as a result of the injury as well. It isn't considered a serious issue at this point, and Chiefs coach Andy Reid told reporters last week there's a "good chance" Smith-Schuster would return to practice this week. That hasn't happened yet, at least, and he's missing opportunities to lock himself in as Mahomes' top target among the wide receivers. | | The Raiders are going to release Kenyan Drake | | It's surprising because of what the Raiders invested in him – $11 million total, including a pretty sizeable dead cap hit for this season with his release – but that was a decision made by the prior leadership group, and Drake has been the clear fourth running back on the depth chart in the preseason. This seemingly clears Ameer Abdullah up to be the primary pass-catching back in this offense, which makes him a viable late-round target given how often Josh McDaniels' offenses targets running backs in New England. It also clears a path for Zamir White to have a gameday role. He'll be the backup to Josh Jacobs , in all likelihood, but should see some touches early on and could be the lead back if anything happens to Jacobs – or if the coaching staff decides they want a look. Like Drake, the new decision makers in Las Vegas didn't bring Jacobs in and have no long-term commitment to him after turning down his fifth-year option for next season. White remains a great late-round target as a sleeper. | | Baker Mayfield will start for the Panthers | | That's what we expected when they traded for Mayfield, but they still went through the motions of a "competition" with Sam Darnold. As I wrote when the Panthers acquired Mayfield, Mayfield should be a significant upgrade for the Panthers' offense even if he isn't particularly good himself – that's just how bad things have been there since Cam Newton's peak and subsequent decline. Mayfield had 7.2 yards per attempt last season, in a season pretty much everyone agrees was a disaster; Darnold's career mark is 6.5. Since D.J. Moore entered the league in 2018, the Panthers have had one season with more than 17 touchdown passes, and their overall touchdown rate is just 3.2%, compared to Mayfield's 4.8% mark for his career. This news didn't come as any kind of surprise, but it's still nice to get confirmation. | | Isaiah Spiller's status for Week 1 is in doubt | | Spiller left Sunday's preseason game with an ankle injury and will miss the preseason finale, with coach Brandon Staley acknowledging "there's a chance" he'll miss the season opener against the Raiders. Spiller was hoping to push to be the primary backup to Austin Ekeler in camp, but he's been consistently running behind Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree for that job. It looks like Kelley is going to open the season as Ekeler's backup and primary complement, which makes him a viable late-round sleeper – there is significant upside for the lead back in this offense if something happens to Ekeler, as Justin Jackson showed in averaging 18.8 points in five games with a snap share higher than 40% since 2018. | | Mike Evans, Tom Brady return to Bucs practice | | It's not clear why Brady was absent – vague personal reasons, anonymous sources, and Reddit sleuthing aside – but he was back at Bucs training camp Monday. His absence was strange, but there was never any indication that the team was worried he wouldn't be back for the start of the season, and now he's got more than two weeks to make sure he's back to full speed. The Bucs have dealt with a lot of injuries during camp, including two prospective starters on the offensive line, but as long as Brady has his weapons, I'm not gonna bet against him. This should remain one of the most productive passing games in the league. | | Evans has been out for nearly two weeks with a hamstring injury, but it was never considered a particularly serious issue, and this confirms it. Evans has an opportunity to carve out a bigger target share than usual early in the season if Chris Godwin isn't 100% coming off his torn ACL, and he's a viable WR1 (or excellent WR2) in drafts right now. | | Logan Thomas (knee) was activated from PUP | | Thomas is working his way back from a torn ACL and there's still no guarantee he'll be ready for Week 1, but this is a good sign. He was the No. 4 tight end in Fantasy in 2020 and could be a worthwhile late-round target as a sleeper if he's healthy for the start of the season, especially if you're a believer in Carson Wentz. I have Thomas ranked as a top-20 option at the position, but I'm probably not drafting him in most leagues. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | Win up to $100,000 | ✔Scores & Highlights
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