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| Monday, December 23, 2024 |
| I am done recording the Week 16 Beyond the Box Score podcast -- a weekly Monday recap show that I do with Adam and Dan -- and now it's time to catch FFT Newsletter readers up on everything that I've learned in the past 24 hours! We're going beyond the box score! |
| If you want to check out the podcast version on FFT, you can listen to that here! |
| Beyond the Box Score -- Fantasy football risers following Week 16 |
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| Fantasy riser -- Chigoziem Okonkwo |
| Okonkwo's route rate in Week 16 was way higher than we've seen it recently. He's been a productive player on a per-opportunity basis and has looked like one of the few reliable playmakers in Tennessee's offense lately. After the first handful of tight ends, it feels pretty dicey trusting anyone. Okonkwo has become an interesting name to consider with recent developments to his role and the QB change from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
| It continues to appear more evident that JSN is the best target-earner in Seattle's offense. |
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| Smith-Njigba had a 50% first-read target share in Week 15, but his average depth of target was only 4.8 yards from the line of scrimmage. In Week 16, we saw him again pace the Seahawks in first-read looks but not only through short-yardage looks. JSN's Week 16 aDOT was 12.8 yards, marking his third game with 150+ air yards in 2024. |
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| More downfield targets gives JSN the opportunity to become an elite real-life and Fantasy football receiver. And coming down with contested catch opportunities is going play a crucial role in differentiating whether he becomes elite or not. Here , you can watch a few examples from Week 16. He can come down with these plays, he has flashed the requisite focus and attention to detail with his body control and technique. JSN can crush press/man coverage but doesn't have the top-end speed to regularly turn those wins at the line of scrimmage into huge wins down the field (defenders often are able to make up the ground on him after losing at the line of scrimmage), so the more regularly he is able to convert on small-win plays, the more yardage JSN is going to pile up. |
| The manner in which JSN has finished up his second season has convincingly put him back into the "potentially elite" WR conversation after a first season that gave us almost no clear answers. To close out the 2024 Fantasy football season, JSN gets a Thursday night matchup against a Bears defense that has been quite leaky when it comes to surrendering explosive WR performances. |
| Fantasy riser -- Xavier Worthy |
| Another double-digit target game is in the books as Worthy closes his rookie season out strong. Even with Marquise Brown back and the Chiefs intentionally scheming looks for him, Worthy remained the team-leader in routes, targets, and Fantasy points. I feel good about starting him in Week 17 and am encouraged by his late-season passing of the eye test. The game has clearly slowed down for Worthy lately. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Jaylen Warren |
| The Chiefs defense has not allowed more than 52 receiving yards to a running back all season, and no running back has finished with 30+ receiving yards vs. KC since Week 5. It's not an easy defense to run on either. In Week 15, Jerome Ford became the first RB to top 70 rushing yards against the Chiefs, thanks to one big play. This matchup has been and remains a brutal spot for opposing running backs, and it is the one that Warren draws in the Fantasy championship week. |
| His Week 16 matchup was brutal, too, and Warren did alright! He has the ability to pile up receptions if the Steelers fall behind. We saw Pittsburgh go away from a failing run game centered around Najee Harris in Week 16, and it would be no surprise to see something similar in Week 17. Warren's 67% snap rate in Week 16 was his highest in a 2024 game played with Najee Harris and second-highest ever in a game that both backs were healthy for. |
| Fantasy riser -- Aaron Jones |
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| His route rate (60%) was the highest it has been in nearly two months, his snap rate was above 80% for just the third time this season, and he handled 18 of 19 RB rush attempts. It wasn't a massive box score day, but Aaron Jones appears to be healthy and ready to handle a large workload for one of the best offenses in the league. Next up is a "revenge game" vs. the Packers! |
| Fantasy riser -- De'Von Achane |
| Tied for the team-lead in first-read target share (25%) in Week 16, Achane continues to showcase a skill set that is unique at the RB position. Watch him win a downfield rep as a wide receiver and really consider how many running backs you've seen who offer similar versatility. |
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| In Week 16, we finally saw the explosive rushing potential that Achane's absurd rookie showing left us longing come to fruition. Finally, some running lanes! I thought he looked fantastic after re-watching all of his touches vs. the Niners (they did not look fantastic). Overall, Week 16 offered another encouraging data point, and there is reason for optimism about Achane's upside as a unique talent as a rusher and receiver as he moves forward into Year 3. Lets also not overlook that he is now up to 258 touches and has handled 15+ touches in nine of 10 games to close the season following a Week 6 bye. Achane has resoundingly positive answers to any questions posed about his Fantasy profile entering his second season. I've seen some mention selling-high on him, that's not where my head is at. I'll entertain any offer, but I do view Achane as an elite Fantasy contributor in the same vicinity as players like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. There are only 5-10 players who I would rather roster going forward (not including the QB position), and yes, Brian Thomas Jr. is one of them. |
| If you don't know about it already, Dan and I created a second Beyond the Box Score episode that is exclusive to YouTube. We've had a ton of awesome guests help us get the show up and running, and we have both put a lot of work into that podcast project with an aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! You can support the project by watching, liking, commenting, and subscribing. Thanks for being here! |
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