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| Monday, December 16, 2024 |
| I am done recording the Week 15 Beyond the Box Score podcast -- a weekly Monday recap show that I do with Adam and Dan -- and now it's time to catch FFT Newsletter readers up on everything that I've learned in the past 24 hours! We're going beyond the box score! |
| If you want to check out the podcast version on FFT, you can listen to that here! |
| Beyond the Box Score -- Fantasy football risers following Week 15 |
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| Fantasy riser -- Tyjae Spears |
| Tyjae Spears is so fun! It came against the Cincinnati Bengals, but still, it was good to see Spears pop off in Week 15. If Tony Pollard misses time, Spears could be a Fantasy league-winner. He was the Week 15 Fantasy RB6 in XFP (expected Fantasy Points) according to Fantasy Points Data (prior to Monday night's games). |
| Fantasy riser -- Jalen Coker |
| I was rather facetious in introducing Coker through the lens of his yard per route run rate on Monday's show, which Dan was quick to police . It is responsible to provide context -- so, to be clear, I was not making any claims about Coker based on his per-route data. I was simply stating that he has been effective at creating yardage on a per-route basis. If I were to make a claim, it would be that I have noticed that players who are effective at creating yardage do sometimes see more opportunities follow an initial show of efficacy. Rashid Shaheed is the latest example that I can remember of an undrafted receiver whose early-career efficiency eventually translated to more opportunities. To be even more clear, Shaheed was more efficient than Coker has been. |
| Coker is an interesting player. Shaheed seems like a true outlier. Most-likely, Coker won't be an outlier, by definition of the word. He is interesting, though. He began the season behind David Moore and Jonathan Mingo on the depth chart. When Xavier Legette got hurt in Week 5, Coker played more and ended up leading the team in receiving yards. From that point on, he played more than Mingo in every game until the 2023 Round 2 selection was traded. Coker has won down the field and in the short and intermediate areas. Matt Harmon charted him for his midseason Reception Perception Rookie Report and gave glowing (relatively -- certainly for a UDFA, but for any rookie WR!) review. |
| I was worried that a quad injury derailed Coker's pleasantly surprising rookie season, but he immediately stepped into a prominent role in Week 15. Adam Thielen remained the team-lead in terms of first-read target share (39%), but Coker's rate (22%) was respectable and Thielen only had one more target overall. Coker led the team in air yards, accounted for over half of the total receiving yards, and was the only Panther to find the end zone all day. Next up are the Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Let's see if the rook finishes strong! |
| Fantasy riser -- Xavier Worthy |
| Xavier Worthy has only come down with 1 of 10 targets of 30+ air yards in 2024. You may wonder who is to blame! If so, you guessed it, I commemorated our misery! Even though I have watched every Kansas City Chiefs game in 2024, I find myself not brave enough to make declarations about the performance of Patrick Mahomes as a deep passer. Ten is not a large sample size. That's my declaration, I hope that it suffices. |
| Worthy's stats could look much better. There, an even weak claim. If we simulated this season a billion times, maybe more than half of those times he would have better stats. Maybe it's been a terribly unlucky season for Worthy and those who are invested in his success! |
| What I do feel confident in claiming is that there has been improvement. He's found better rhythm and timing lately and been able to put his speed to good use. His body control seems more confident and precise lately. |
| And the Chiefs are using Worthy a lot more lately. He has led the Chiefs in routes run in each of the past two games. And Worthy recorded his highest first-read target rate of the season in Week 15. |
| Can he be a Fantasy riser even if Patrick Mahomes misses time? I'm not sure. From a long-term perspective, his Week 15 game felt noteworthy. He really does look clearly more comfortable lately. His 1 out of 10 catch rate on targets of 30+ air yards is well below the league average. Here's how it compares to other receivers with at least 10 of such targets. |
| Worthy ranks 58th out of 70 qualified receivers in terms of catchable target rate overall. On targets where the route-runner created at least one step of separation, Worthy's 80% catchable target rate is tied for the third-lowest. |
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| Surely, it wouldn't be better for Worthy to not have Mahomes at QB. Surely! I'm not sure what to believe at this point, how can Mahomes keep missing?! |
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| Fantasy riser -- Dalton Kincaid |
| I would bet that Dalton Kincaid's 2024 per-route rates rank better than you might imagine among qualified tight ends. His per-route data is certainly much improved from his rookie season! And in Week 15, Kincaid returned to the field and immediately stepped into a Fantasy-relevant role. Only Khalil Shakir (30%) had a higher first-read target rate than Kincaid (25%) among Buffalo pass-catchers. Kincaid was the TE6 in XFP on the week. |
| Kincaid hasn't made the statistical leap that many expected in Year 2, but it's not all bad. And his Week 15 involvement in the offense suggests that you might be fine trusting Kincaid in Fantasy down the stretch. |
| Fantasy riser -- Sam LaPorta |
| LaPorta was one of the five tight ends with more XFP than Kincaid in Week 15, and no surprise with the Lions dropping back to pass over 60 times. The real note, to me, is that LaPorta recorded a season-high route rate. |
| Prior to a Week 11 bye, LaPorta had a 66% route rate. Since then, his rate has been 70% or higher in four-straight games, culminating into an 84% rate against the Bills. Of course, the game script influenced the final result. The fact that the Lions are emphasizing LaPorta more lately has me encouraged. He's been an afterthought for most of the year, even though his per-opportunity efficiency continues to imply that he's one of the most-talented players (any age) at the TE position. |
| Fantasy riser -- DeVonta Smith |
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| A.J. Brown says his ankle is okay, we'll see. Regardless of his status, it was good to see DeVonta Smith so involved in Week 15. He's been at the heart of the Eagles pass-game pecking order since returning to the field in Week 14. The targets have mostly been short and schemed-up, as evidenced in his first-target share rates of 40% and 43% over the past two games. |
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| It's been a disjointed season for Smith, but his underlying data is right in line with the best year of his career (2022) and there have been spectacular moments sprinkled in throughout. It is going to be interesting to see how committed to the pass game Philadelphia remains. A Week 16 matchup vs. the Commanders could bring a shootout! |
| Fantasy riser -- Bucky Irving |
| Before Week 15, it felt like there was a realistic possibility that we had missed out on Bucky Irving league-winner right when we needed him most. Instead, we are so back, my pinned tweet is about Bucky Irving. |
| Fantasy riser -- Isaac Guerendo |
| Following similar logic, and with an even longer week of rest, it sure was encouraging to see Guerendo occupy a Fantasy-friendly role. He finished one spot ahead of Irving in the Fantasy RB rankings as RB14 in Week 15 XFP, according to FP Data. |
| If you don't know about it already, Dan and I created a second Beyond the Box Score episode that is exclusive to YouTube. We've had a ton of awesome guests help us get the show up and running, and we have both put a lot of work into that podcast project with an aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! You can support the project by watching, liking, commenting, and subscribing. Thanks for being here! |
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