Beyond Oil: An exciting announcement

From James Woodburn, Publisher

Dear Reader,

Welcome back to our series of ‘Beyond Oil’ conversations.

Now I need your full attention today, because I have an important announcement to make...

ANNOUNCING:
BEYOND OIL
PORT PHILLIP PUBLISHING’S
2020 ONLINE CONFERENCE
19-25 OCTOBER 2020

** FREE TO ATTEND — GO HERE TO REGISTER **

I am thrilled to announce that we are putting on a major online event: The biggest and most logistically challenging event in Port Phillip Publishing history...but, I believe, the most potentially valuable to you.

Now, behind the scenes, we’ve been building up to this announcement for several weeks — and I’ve been alluding to it in this series of conversations with our editors.

Well, now, I can pull back the curtain and let you know that we are hosting an online conference, later this month, also titled ‘Beyond Oil’.

Now, there are a few really important things to let you know, before I tell you how to register.

First, the dates.

This will be a seven-day online event, starting on Monday, 19 October.

You will get content every single day.

We’re going to be talking to clean energy and investment experts from all over the world over the course of a week. And we’ll stream these talks on an access-only, special event website.

You can expect roughly two pieces of exclusive content a day — but they will be in-depth, richly valuable insights from some of the biggest experts in the world — and I’ll tell you a bit more about them in a second.

Next thing — and it’s BIG...

I’m absolutely delighted to announce that our Beyond Oil online conference is FREE to attend.

That’s right. There’s no charge whatsoever to come to our show.

The only thing we ask is that you register, which you can do on this page.

Now, this is a big deal.

Ideally, we’d put this show on here in Melbourne, or in another major capital city. We’ve hosted many conferences before. And we typically charge around $500 a seat for a two- to three-day show.

But because of COVID, we can’t do that.

So, we’ve moved everything online.

And, thanks to the generosity of our speakers, and some deft negotiating by our people here and in London, we’ve just about managed to cover our costs.

That means you can get access to our clean energy investing conference for FREE.

Now, that is practically unheard of. To be honest, even I’m amazed that we’ve managed to pull it off! But we have. We’ll be opening registration for a limited time. All the details are on this page.

Third thing I want to do is introduce you to my co-host for the Beyond Oil conference.

His name is Kit Winder and he’s based in our London office.

Kit is an analyst and researcher who works alongside James Allen — who you’ve already heard from in this series.

Together, they’ve been exploring the world of clean energy for almost two years from their base on the south bank of the River Thames.

Earlier this year — when I realised that COVID was going to curtail our attempts to put on a big show in Melbourne — I reached out to Kit and James, who I knew had done a lot of exciting work in this area.

They were a great help.

They’d already been talking to several of the energy experts we’d profiled here in Australia. Specifically, those based in the UK, Europe and the US.

Once we’d secured access to these speakers, Kit volunteered to take the hosting duties.

This was mainly because of the nine-hour time difference, and also because, at the time, the UK wasn’t subject to the same kind of draconian lockdown that we were, here in Melbourne.

Anyway, Kit has been unbelievably helpful to us, and he joins me for today’s ‘Beyond Oil’ conversation.

We’re going to be talking more about our conference, the challenges, the speakers, and, most importantly, the ideas we’re going to share over a week’s worth of sessions.

Click the thumbnail below now to watch today’s ‘Beyond Oil’ conversation with Kit Winder. (Video will open and play in a new window.)

I’ll be back tomorrow with another one...

Cheers,

James Woodburn,
Publisher, The Rum Rebellion

PS: For a limited time, registration for our seven-day, online Beyond Oil investment conference is FREE. To get your complimentary ticket now, go HERE.

Why the NASDAQ Is Topping out
By Greg Canavan

Following on from yesterday’s comment about stimulus and easy headlines, here’s the opening sentence from today’s ‘Before the Bell’ article in the Financial Review:

‘Australian shares seen up at the open, as Wall Street heads to a slightly higher close as investors continue to bet on the potential for a stimulus deal.’

Ahhh…stimulus. Where would we be without it?

This comes hot on the heels of confirmation that the US government fiscal deficit for the year to 30 September was a massive US$3.1 trillion.

The market already knew that. And it knows that it has already washed through the system. Which is why it’s desperate for more.

Whether that happens before the election though is another matter. The Democrats won’t want to give Trump a win by agreeing to limited measures. And Trump doesn’t want an off the charts spending package as proposed by the Democrats.

Still, the market is in the mood to wish for impossible things.

The market is also still in a bullish mood, despite last month’s sharp correction. It’s looking on the bright side, swanning around with a glass half full and enjoying the sun.

But let’s take a step back and look at the charts. Specifically, let’s take a look at our old mate the NASDAQ, the leader of this carefree bull market. As you can see, last month’s correction was merely a speed bump, a dip to be bought:

Maybe it is. Maybe fortune will favour the brave again.

But these chart patterns are often (not always, but often) the sign of a top forming. That is, you get a near parabolic move higher followed by a sharp sell-off. Then, all the bulls (and latecomers to the party) think the lower prices are a gift and so they push the index higher again.

But as this point, the rebound rally splutters. The charts form a ‘lower high’. The bulls get nervous. From here, the key will be whether the previous low (in this case, the September low) holds, or whether it’s taken out with panic selling.

If that happens, you can almost be sure a deeper correction, over many months, will play out.

There are no certainties in markets. Ever. You have to keep all options open and be willing to change your mind. As the stoic philosopher Seneca said (long before Keynes):

‘It is folly to say, “What I have said must remain fixed.” There is no disgrace in having our opinions change with the circumstances.’

Right now, I’m running with the view that the NASDAQ is in topping out mode. I just think the probability of prices going much higher from here is lower than the probability of prices running out of steam and a deeper correction playing out.

If true, it has implications for our own ‘tech stocks’, or more realistically, consumer credit plays like Afterpay Ltd [ASX:APT]. Its recent share price performance is close to that of the NASDAQ, as you can see below.

Will it surge to new highs and keep the dream alive for thousands of day traders? Or will this rally run out of steam imminently?

My money is on the speculative engine starting to splutter.

I’m not saying that just because wildly overvalued stocks make little sense to me. I say it because the tide is turning for these speculative plays.

All the things that pushed prices higher since March are starting to diminish.

Let’s start with the Fed. While its QE program will continue, it’s increasingly being sidelined in favour of fiscal policy. That’s because, despite all its talk of targeting inflation and goosing the money supply, it’s played its hand.

The Fed is the emperor with no clothes. Its ‘money printing’ program is nothing of the sort. It’s an asset-swapping program that, like three card monte, beguiles the viewer for a short time. But after a while, the players catch on.

That’s why the market is watching Trump and the ‘stimulus’ (as in fiscal) game so closely. But, as I said earlier, the hope for further fiscal measures is done until the election at least.

What about Australia?

The good news is our market is cheaper and not as tech-heavy as the US. There is good long-term value to be had in many Aussie stocks. The latest budget has been well received.

But there is a reason the government had to throw another $200 billion at the economy (following a $500 billion injection through the worst of the shutdown). That’s because there has been a huge amount of (government-inflicted) damage that will take many years to recover from.

The budget will help. But it’s not a panacea. The economy needs to open up, borders need to open up, travel needs to resume. Did you know Australia, NZ and India are the only three countries in the world not allowing their citizens to travel internationally?

The nanny state here knows no bounds.

And don’t tell me the government is trying to protect us. They are trying to win votes by playing the fear card and convincing you that it’s all for your own good.

As I said yesterday, for the economy to truly recover and deliver strong, sustainable growth, the government needs to get out of the way.

Regards,

Greg Canavan,
Editor, The Rum Rebellion