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Thursday, September 8, 2022 |
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter, and this isn't just any Thursday, it's the opening day of the 2022 NFL season. |
That's right, people. After 207 days of waiting, football is finally back. |
The last time we saw an NFL game that counted came back on Feb. 13 when the Rams won a Super Bowl in their home stadium, which is probably starting to feel like the home stadium for nearly every NFL fan in the country at this point because every game we've watched for the past seven months has been played there. Including tonight, the last three NFL games that America watched together were ALL played at SoFi (The NFC Championship, the Super Bowl and the 2022 opener). |
The only thing weirder than that stat is the fact that Von Miller has somehow played in each of those games under different circumstances. He played for the home team in the NFC title game, he played at a "neutral" site in the Super Bowl and he'll be on the visiting sideline Thursday night. At the rate things are going, there's an 80% chance that he'll be a head coach for one of these teams the next time he plays in SoFI. |
With the opener just hours away, we'll obviously be covering the game extensively in today's newsletter, plus we'll also be looking at coaches who are already on the hot seat, because everyone loves a good hot seat story. Oh, and hopefully you're not filled up on predictions yet because we have even more for you today. |
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Alright, let's get to the rundown. |
1. Today's show: Brady Quinn is back on the Pick Six podcast |
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The NFL season isn't the only thing returning today, so is "The Brady Quinn Football Show." After a six-month hiatus, Brady is back and he's handsomer than ever. Not only is Quinn on the Pick Six podcast today, but he'll be joining the show once per week from now until the end of football season. |
For the initial episode of the 2022 season, Brady joined Will Brinson and the two of them talked about multiple things, including tonight's game. Quinn also revealed his Super Bowl pick for the upcoming season and he doesn't think that either team playing tonight will end up in the game. |
Quinn's pick for Super Bowl LVII: Packers vs. Chiefs. |
The crazy thing about this pick is that it's definitely the Super Bowl that no wide receiver wants to see. The Packers and Chiefs both dumped their star receiver this offseason and if they both get to the Super Bowl, it might send a message that you don't need to pay a receiver big money to get to the big game. |
Although the Packers got rid of Davante Adams, Quinn doesn't think that's going to have a huge impact on Aaron Rodgers, who has watched the Packers go through multiple No. 1 receivers in his career. |
"In the case of the Packers, you've seen his transition from Greg Jennings to Jordy Nelson to Davante Adams," Quinn said. "They've gone through this before. This isn't the first time, and they've been fine. He's been successful. He's been able to be the back-to-back MVP. They'll figure it out." |
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2. Getting you ready for the NFL Opener: Bills at Rams |
The 2022 NFL season kicks off tonight with what is possibly the best game of Week 1: Bills at Rams. The Rams are currently a 2.5-point underdog in the game, which is mildly interesting when you consider that Sean McVay has never lost a season opener (He's 5-0 both straight up and against the spread). It's also mildly interesting when you consider that the reigning Super Bowl champion is 19-3 in Week 1 since 2000. |
Basically, there's a lot of reasons to like the Rams, but the Bills are so good that the oddsmakers don't care about those reasons. |
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- Why the Bills can win: If the Bills can get their run game going and get it going away from Aaron Donald, that could allow them to neutralize the Rams star defensive tackle. When teams were able to run on the Rams last season, they generally struggled, going 2-3 in games where their opponent rushed for 135 yards or more (They went 10-2 when holding an opponent under that number). As for the Bills, they went 8-1 when rushing for 120 yards or more last season. That's not to say there's a magical number of rushing yards that will allow the Bills to win this game, but if they get the ground game going, that means the Bills are controlling the line of scrimmage and that would definitely be a good thing for Buffalo.
- Why the Rams can win: If the Bills defense has one weakness right now, it's in the secondary (Starting corner Tre'Davious White will miss the first four games as he continues to recover from a torn ACL he suffered last season). If the Rams are built to take advantage of anything, it's definitely a weakness in the secondary. Assuming Matthew Stafford's injured elbow holds up, he could have a huge day throwing to Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson.
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If you're thinking about betting on the game, Tyler Sullivan put together a full gambling preview. |
- ONE PROP TYLER LIKES: Josh Allen OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-157): "The Bills have thrown 57% of the time dating to the 2020 season and Allen has averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game over that stretch during the regular season. There are also two other Allen props l'm looking at: I like his 9-to-1 odds to score the game's first touchdown and he's also +150 to reach the end zone at any point in the game."
- ONE PROP I LIKE: Tyler Bass OVER 7.5 total points (+145): One thing you're going to notice throughout the season is that my favorite prop in any game I bet on is almost always a kicking prop. In this case, I love Bass to score at least eight points. Bass is a good kicker and Sean McDermott won't hesitate to use him tonight, especially from long range. I won't be surprised if Bass scored 10 points, which would easily hit the over. Also, it's worth noting that Bass went over 7.5 points in six of the first seven games the Bills played last year.
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Dubin's pick: Bills 33-30 over Rams Tyler Sullivan pick: Rams 27-24 over Bills My pick: Bills 30-23 over Rams |
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3. NFL coaches on the hot seat heading into 2021 |
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The 2022 NFL season hasn't even kicked off yet, but there are definitely already some coaches on the hot seat. The most notable one is probably Mike McCarthy, who will likely be hearing fans chanting for Sean Payton on Sunday night if the Cowboys lose to the Buccaneers. |
With McCarthy on the hot seat, we thought right now would be a good time to unveil our initial 2022 hot seat rankings, which was compiled by CBSSports.com's Jeff Kerr. |
Here's a look at the rankings: |
1. Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) 2. Matt Rhule (Panthers) 3. Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals) 4. Frank Reich (Colts) 5. Ron Rivera (Commanders) |
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4. Predicting the teams who will be playing in the Super Bowl |
After 10 straight days of bombarding you with predictions for the 2022 NFL season, we're finally ready to give you the biggest prediction of them all: the identity of the team that's going to win Super Bowl LVII. Normally, I would just give you my opinion, but no one cares what I think, so we rounded up six of our writers here at CBSSports.com and asked them to pick their playoff teams from each conference and their Super Bowl teams. |
After going through all the votes, I have found that everyone here is on the Bills bandwagon, which means there's now a 90% chance it's going to crash before the end of the season. |
Of our six voters, we're predicting eight different teams to make it to the Super Bowl and four different teams to win it: |
Jason La Canfora: Bills over Rams Pete Prisco: Bills over Rams Will Brinson: Ravens over Eagles Ryan Wilson: Chargers over Packers Jared Dubin: Bills over 49ers John Breech (ME): Broncos over Packers |
If you want to check out our entire prediction page, which includes us predicting each division winner and all 14 playoff teams, then you're going to want to click here. |
If you click over, here are some quick nuggets that you'll see: |
- Unanimous playoff participants. The six of us unanimously agreed that the Bills, Bengals, Ravens, Chiefs and Chargers would make the playoffs out of the AFC. In the NFC, we all agreed that the Eagles, Packers, Buccaneers, Rams and 49ers would make the postseason.
- These teams have no hope for the postseason. There were FOURTEEN teams that received exactly zero votes for the playoffs, and those teams were: The Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Browns, Titans, Texans, Giants, Commanders, Lions, Bears, Panthers, Falcons, Cardinals, and Seahawks.
- No one knows what to expect from the Jaguars or Vikings. These two teams were the only ones that received at least one vote to finish in first, second or third place in their respective divisions.
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5. Five bold predictions for the 2022 NFL season |
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Just when you thought we were done giving you predictions, guess what? We have more predictions. We asked CBSSports.com's Tyler Sullivan to come up with five bold predictions for the 2022 season and Mr. Sullivan definitely came through. |
Here's a look at his bold predictions for the year: |
- 1. Eagles get the top seed in the NFC. "This offseason, the Eagles improved the roster across the board. They traded for star wideout A.J. Brown at the draft, giving Jalen Hurts a true No. 1 option alongside DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. Not only is the roster better, but they have one of the easiest schedules in the entire NFL. When looking at projected win totals, Philly's schedule ranks as the second-easiest in the league. That should allow them to pile up wins and ultimately grab ahold of the No. 1 seed."
- 2. Christian McCaffrey plays all 17 games. "Dating back to 2020, McCaffrey has played in just 10 games due to injury. At some point, that bad injury luck has to turn around and it does feel like he's due for a healthy campaign in 2022. Plus, he's playing in a much better offense with Baker Mayfield at quarterback and a revamped offensive line blocking for him, so he may not take as much abuse as he has in the past."
- 3. Russell Wilson wins MVP. "As we've seen over the past couple of years, quarterbacks can adapt quickly after switching franchises (Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady, for example). With this fresh start and strong cast around him, Wilson should be expected to put up eye-popping numbers and be the difference-maker who finally moves Denver into the playoffs."
- 4. George Karlaftis wins Defensive Rookie of the Year. "He'll be playing for a Chiefs team that boasts an offense that should be able to get up on teams early. That sets up a game script for him to be able to tee off against opposing quarterbacks and pump up his stats, especially with the likes of Chris Jones and Frank Clark garnering most of the attention."
- 5. Tua Tagovailoa silences doubters. "Under new head coach Mike McDaniel, it seems like Miami is finally building an offense that caters to his skill set ... Also, Tagovailoa is now well removed from that injury, has an offense and offensive skill position players that caters to him, and should finally be that top-tier prospect he was billed as for the Crimson Tide, which will silence any questions regarding his ability to be QB1."
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6. Rapid-fire roundup: Lamar Jackson set to cut off contract negotiations with Ravens |
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
- Lamar Jackson sets (soft) deadline for contract negotiations. The Ravens QB still doesn't have a new deal and if he doesn't have one by Friday, it sounds like he might shut down negotiations for the season. He said he "probably" would, which means there's a chance he might not. For a full look at Jackson's current contract situation, be sure to click here.
- Van Jefferson out for opener. The wide receiver was the only player on the Rams' injury report Wednesday and he has been ruled out of tonight's game due to a knee injury. Jefferson underwent surgery on Aug. 2 and the Rams were hoping to have him back for Week 1, but that's not definitely not going to happen.
- Rams starter gets three-year extension. The Rams decided to take care of some business before tonight's opener by giving right tackle Rob Havenstein a three-year extension. According to NFL.com, the new deal is worth a total of $34.5 million and includes $24.1 million in guarantees. Havenstein is now the sixth-highest paid right tackle in the NFL.
- Larry Fitzgerald signs a new contract ... with ESPN. The retired receiver who still hasn't officially retired is headed for a job at ESPN. The former Cardinals star has signed with the all sports network and will be featured on "Monday Night Countdown" this season.
- No rookie quarterbacks in Week 1 for first time in 15 years. With Kenny Pickett losing the starting QB battle in Pittsburgh, that means there will be no rookie quarterbacks on the field in Week 1, which marks the first time since 2007 that that's happened. The 2007 draft featured five quarterbacks taken in the first two rounds and none of them started a game in Week 1 (In a twist, one of those five quarterbacks was Brady Quinn, who hosted today's episode of the podcast).
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