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| Monday, July 15, 2024 |
| It's Bengals Day! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (10th) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 33.9 (2nd) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 14.2 (32nd) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Promoted Dan Pitcher from QB coach to offensive coordinator after Brian Callahan took the Tennessee Titans head coaching job |
| I'm expecting more of the same schematically for the Bengals, which will likely entail a shotgun-heavy approach this feels frustratingly static at times. My understanding is that the play-callers have their hands tied by Joe Burrow's preferences. |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Let right tackle Jonah Williams walk in free agencySigned tackle Trent BrownDrafted tackle Amarius Mims in Round 1 |
| This offensive line was healthy but just was not very good in 2023. Replacing Williams with Brown will likely help. Williams has been underwhelming during his time with the Bengals and earned the lowest PFF grade of Cincy's starting linemen. The Bengals have some talented players on the line and could certainly improve from 2023. Until we see improvement, I'm expecting average play from this group. |
| Will Joe Burrow return to form? |
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| Year 4 was Burrow's worst showing since his rookie season. Specifically when it came to intermediate and deep passing, Burrow has never been worse as a pro than he was in 2023. |
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| Some attribute Burrow's 2023 to his early-season calf strain and may point to his Week 5 breakout against the Cardinals as a turning point. While his baseline numbers improved a bit from that point, Burrow's underlying data remained uninspiring. |
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| While Burrow's troubles on deep passing may be a byproduct of his calf injury, it's also a possibility that the league's increase in two-high safety coverages is impacting how he and Zac Taylor choose to attack offensively. We've seen Burrow's average depth of target fall for four straight seasons, from 8.5 yards as a rookie down to 6.4 yards in 2023. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have experienced a similar shift. |
| As I prepared the Houston Texans team preview, I pointed out the wide gap between C.J. Stroud and the rest of the league when it comes to attacking the intermediate-deep middle area of the field. |
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| Jordan Love's name stood out to me on this list. Even though he was not efficient on these types of passes, the Green Bay offense continued to hammer the middle area of the field. Notice the teams that produced the top results in this metric. Outside of Derek Carr, who has always been aggressive in pushing the ball down the field, every other QB on this list plays for one of the league's top offensive play-callers. |
| Some quarterback-coach combinations are continuing to challenge defenses deep down the field, even with more two-high safety coverages than ever. Others -- namely, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and Kansas City -- have leaned into short passing and the run game as a response to lighter boxes presented by two-high safety looks. |
| The percentage of Burrow's passes against two-high safety that went to the intermediate-deep middle area of the field dropped from 19% in 2022 to 16% in 2023. For reference, Stroud's rate was 24%, and Goff and Love each posted a 22% rate. Tagovailoa and Stafford each posted a 20% rate. |
| I worry a bit that Cincinnati's offense may be too predictable. Cincy's pre-snap motion rate on pass plays with Burrow on the field was just 40% in 2023 and is only 33% over his career. The league average was 45% in 2023, you can find every team's rate here. |
| When the offensive pieces are as good as they have been in Cincinnati, then it might not matter so much if the defense has a slight strategic advantage. But, as the pieces progressively fall away or diminish with wear and tear, this offense may struggle if it does not adapt. Vegas look-ahead lines have the Bengals implied for the sixth-highest point total, just below the Bills and ahead of the Ravens, so I'm not too worried about a fall-off coming in 2024. But I am keeping an eye on how this offense moves forward, a drop-off is definitely on my radar, especially with Burrow making a rather unprecedented return from a wrist injury on his throwing hand. |
| Cincy's pass volume could be through the roof in 2024 |
| I project Cincinnati for the league's highest pass rate in 2024. I dug into the splits with Joe Mixon off of the field, and Cincy's tendencies are very pronounced. You can find more detail on that research on Twitter. Essentially, I found that the Bengals have been 26% more likely to pass the ball when Mixon was not on the field in neutral situations. I filtered out plays that occurred in situations that were "very likely" passing downs to offer a more fair representation of the actual offense's flow, and still, the play-calling was way less run-heavy when Mixon was replaced. |
| Ja'Marr Chase could see more targets from the slot |
| I think we could see Chase used in a short-yardage catch-and-run role that operates as an extension of the run game with the Bengals moving on from Mixon and Tyler Boyd in 2024. |
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| This type of role might limit Chase's potential for true eruption games with fewer downfield routes. More slot routes would likely provide a big boost to Chase's overall Fantasy outlook, though, especially in PPR formats. With Burrow's focus becoming continually more concentrated on the short area of the field, Chase could pile up targets in a way that we've never seen. |
| Among receivers with 300+ routes run, 18 drew targets on a higher percentage of their routes than Chase in 2023. That's weird, right? In a season where Tee Higgins was limited and the offense was desperate, Chase was targeted on 24% of his routes. Chase had a lower target per route run rate than rookies Jayden Reed and Rashee Rice. |
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| What if Chase were to play a role similar to those two receivers with more designed "lay-up" targets? We've never seen Chase's target-per-route run rate above 26% in a season because of the downfield-oriented nature of his role. What if that changes and he suddenly is targeted more like an offensive focal point in his fourth season? Since entering the NFL, Chase ranks 11th in yards per route run (2.19) at the WR position. Every receiver ranked ahead of him has a higher target per route run rate, with the group average for the 10 receivers ahead of him at 27.4%. Chase's career rate is 23.9%. |
| CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill are the only two receivers who I am drafting ahead of Chase. |
| Are we sleeping on Tee Higgins? |
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| Tee Higgins has seen his average route depth (the distance from the line of scrimmage at which a route runner's initial cut comes) rise in each of the past three seasons, which has been accompanied by a decline in his targets and yards per route. Especially as Cincy's offense has focused more on short passing, Higgins has developed into a less and less trustworthy Fantasy contributor. |
| It hasn't helped that Higgins has dealt with injuries that may have slowed his play a bit, too. |
| Tee Higgins PFF Receiving Grade: |
79.0 -- Year 1
82.8 -- Year 2
78.8 -- Year 3
70.9 -- Year 4 |
| I believe that this is all reflected in his average draft position. Higgins leaves the board as the WR34 on average in CBS drafts. If you can get him at or anywhere beyond the WR30 mark, I'd consider it a good value. Understand that there's risk attached to this offense and how his role might not interact well within that overall offensive direction, but there's also upside. The Chiefs are the only offense that I have projected to produce more passing touchdowns than Cincinnati. The Bengals stand alone at the top of my projections in total targets and receptions produced. |
| If rookie Jermaine Burton does not draw targets at a high rate, then we'll likely see at least 20% of that massive projected target total go to Higgins. Burton was never a target-earner at the collegiate level. His route tree was extremely downfield-oriented, even more than what we've seen from Higgins. |
| Burton is a very interesting player. He was highly sought after as a prospect by both Georgia and Alabama. At Georgia, as a true sophomore, Burton was second in receiving yards on a team that also had Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, George Pickens (for only four games), Adonai Mitchell, and several other NFL running backs and tight ends. He then led Alabama in receiving in each of his two final collegiate seasons. This offseason, Burton has had the opportunity to put in reps with the first-team offense while Higgins and Chase weren't around. He could slide into a full-time role right away and has the talent to threaten defenses. If Burton is good enough to stretch defenses from the boundary, that allows Chase's gravity to pull more defenders into the middle area of the field and leave more one-on-one perimeter opportunities for Higgins to post up or beat defenders deep down the sideline. Even if the week-to-week targets are inconsistent, Higgins could post a career-best touchdown total in 2024. |
| Will a Bengals RB matter for Fantasy? |
| I'm not so sure, especially if this offense leans as pass-heavy as expected. My projections have the Bengals finishing last in rushing yardage and touchdowns. |
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| If one of the two backs establishes himself as the clear preference on passing downs and/or short-yardage opportunities, then that back may matter for Fantasy. Of the top two options currently on the roster, Zack Moss is the intuitive fit for those opportunities. I haven't landed much of Moss in drafts this summer, but I'm fine with him at the right cost. |
| After digging into Chase Brown's collegiate career again, I feel like he's a decent fit for Cincy's shotgun-heavy approach. He was not a good man/gap-based rusher at all, though, and the Bengals have leaned heavily on those run designs with Mixon. Simple handoffs to the middle area of the line from the shotgun seem like more of Moss's jam than Brown's. Brown is at his best on zone runs, particularly outside zone. |
| Brown also does not inspire much confidence with his receiving profile at the college or pro level. He also wasn't a particularly effective short-yardage rusher. He was less efficient than his backfield teammates on goal line opportunities. As a rookie, zero of his 44 rush attempts came on the goal line and only four came with three or fewer yards to gain a first down. He gained zero yards on those four attempts. |
| Chase Brown can run fast. I do not know if he is ever going to play a role that is meaningful for Fantasy purposes. |
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| I'll leave you with one deep sleeper for the Bengals. Rookie tight end Erick All brings an intriguing skill set and was dominating in 2023 before his torn ACL. |
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| Mike Gesicki is the presumptive starting tight end, but All brings more versatility and long-term upside. It wouldn't surprise me to see All work his way into a regular role as the season progresses. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July! Tuesday, we will be covering the Baltimore Ravens. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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