| Good morning Voornaam, Barloworld shareholders said no to an offer of R120/share. Barloworld is currently trading at R108, so the market hasn't retraced its steps back to pre-offer levels (or anything close). Against this backdrop, the latest trading update tells a story of a difficult point in the cycle, including a much lower order book in the business in Mongolia. Personally, I'll be very surprised if we see Barloworld on the right side of R100 by the end of 2025. I have no position in the stock.
In deal news, Pepkor has announced a rather exciting transaction to acquire various retail banners (including Legit) from Retailability, the group that bought Edgars and related businesses out of business rescue. Edgars will be staying behind, so Pepkor has been very careful about what they are acquiring here. It's all about increasing their exposure to the adultwear market, where Pepkor is weaker in relative terms than kidswear.
Remgro's intrinsic net asset value per share (INAV) has moved higher. The discount to INAV is huge, yet the dividend has been increased. Why, for the love of all things, isn't the narrative around share buybacks instead?
There were some pretty tough numbers that came out of Astoria and Oceana. The former is dealing with diamond disruption and the latter is a fishing business, so volatility is the order of the day. Other news that you might find interesting includes growth in the dividend at Master Drilling and a potential acquisition in Europe by Santova.
Finally, as predicted in the Nibbles yesterday, Fairvest had absolutely no problem raising capital. In fact, I'm pretty amazed at just how low the discount was, indicating the depth of capital pools in South Africa.
As always, these details and the Nibbles are available in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
For those who enjoy a deeper dive, Homechoice International was recently on Unlock the Stock. This is a retail business with an impressive fintech overlay. In fact, I've added it to my portfolio as a rather interesting growth play in South Africa, albeit one that desperately needs more liquidity on the shareholder register. Watch the management presentation and Q&A here>>>
Dominique Olivier's latest piece is on how China managed to disrupt the automotive world, especially when it comes to EVs. The latest models certainly aren't Temu Teslas - they are solid products. Sometimes, a story of disruption is firmly thanks to governmental planning, as you'll learn here>>>
The latest Magic Markets podcast takes a deeper look at the European markets and the companies that you'll find in those indices. Much as everyone is now talking about opportunities outside of the US, one needs to be cautious of this Europhoria. The companies in the indices aren't necessarily the most exciting names around. Learn more here>>>
Here's another opportunity to learn about the state of play out there: Investec's No Ordinary Wednesday brings you a discussion between host Jeremy Maggs and Investec's Chief Economists, Phil Shaw in the UK and Annabel Bishop in SA. The focus is on the economic outlook for Europe and South Africa. Enjoy it at this link>>>
Have a great day! |
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| SATRIX: Don't waste the TFSA opportunity |
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| | | Tax-free savings accounts (TFSA) are one of the most building blocks in any equity portfolio. The advantage of compounding tax-free returns over a long period is incredibly powerful and can really turbocharge a long-term wealth creation journey.
To discuss the importance of TFSA investments and the opportunities available to investors in the ETF universe, familiar voice Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix returned to the Ghost Stories podcast.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Q1 winners on the JSE |
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| In considering how the first few months of the year have played out, some surprising winners have emerged. The performance in gold is simply a case of the sector carrying on where it left off in 2024, but what about platinum? And where did that telecoms rally come from? Also, have retail stocks continued their slide since the previous episode of Ghost Wrap that focused on that issue?
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | Pepkor announced a major transaction. Barloworld's numbers are cause for concern. Look out for financial updates from Astoria, Master Drilling, Oceana and Remgro. Santova has a potential deal. Fairvest had no problem raising capital. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - Homechoice International |
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| In the 49th edition of Unlock the Stock, Homechoice International made its debut on the platform to talk about the interesting mix of retail and fintech businesses in the group. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Temu Teslas no more: how China won the EV race |
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| | | In case you've been living under a rock, the Chinese vehicle onslaught is causing massive disruption in the automotive sector. It's even more severe in the EV world, something we aren't exposed to in South Africa. Dominique Olivier explains how China did it. Read it here>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Global economy - recession or recovery? |
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| | | Recession risks, inflation pressures, and trade tensions - how is the global economy shaping up in 2025? Investec’s Chief Economists, Phil Shaw (UK) and Annabel Bishop (SA), take stock of the latest trends in No Ordinary Wednesday. From global growth forecasts to the economic outlook for Europe and South Africa, they break down what lies ahead in this podcast>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Chinese car giant BYD posted its 2024 revenue. Not only was it 29% higher at a time when most car companies have seen a similar move in the other direction, but revenue even came in higher than Tesla. The chairman of the firm talked about how BYD has "reshaped the new landscape of the global market" - and I don't think that anybody is going to argue with that.
The new charging platform is supposedly able to achieve 400kms of range with just five minutes of charging. Will this prove to be correct? Even if they can get anything close to that, it will be a game changer.
To show you how significant the disruption really is, we have covered BMW in Magic Markets Premium this week. Our report will be released to our subscribers tonight. We deliberately chose one of the better European companies, just to demonstrate the point. |
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| Magic Markets: The art of investing in art |
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| | | Magic Markets: Tristanne Farrell isn’t shy to admit it: she’s mildly obsessed with art. As a Senior Wealth Manager at Investec Wealth & Investment International, her day job is to help clients build diversified, successful portfolios. Thankfully, with art as one of the more interesting (and certainly most visually stimulating) alternative assets out there, she gets to enjoy some overlap between her passion and her career, including hosting the Art in Focus podcast series.
She joined us to talk about art as an investment, bringing a mix of genuine passion and solid insights into this asset class. To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and IG Markets macro update |
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| S&P 500 futures were little changed Wednesday morning after posting modest gains on Tuesday. The dollar index is trading flat this morning and continues to hover around 7 day highs.
European equity markets rebounded on Tuesday, with the STOXX 600 index ending a streak of three consecutive days in the red. Germany's DAX and France's CAC both rose more than 1%, while the UK's FTSE 100 saw a modest increase of 0.3%. European index futures are however flat in early trade today.
Asian stocks are seeing modest gains in early trade today, driven by hopes of softer tariffs from the U.S. and a late rally in U.S. equities.
The JSE All-Share Index is also expected to open sideways this morning after having gained yesterday. The rand continues to track below the R18.30/$ mark in low volatility trade.
Oil prices continue to rebound on concerns of tighter supplies after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs against countries importing oil and gas from Venezuela and after US crude inventories fell more than expected. Gold prices are holding steady as markets await developments on US tariff plans.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.25/$ | US 10yr 4.34% | Gold $3,027/oz | Platinum $971/oz | Brent Crude $73.31
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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