Insights, news and analysis for the professional investor |
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Bitcoin (BTC) - $39,464.67 |
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Prices as of 4/22/22 @ 6:31 p.m. UTC Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here. |
Welcome to Crypto Long & Short Χριστός Ανέστη! As a Greek-American, I’m celebrating Easter with my family a week later than most by roasting a full goat on a spit. You should try it at least once. It really is something else (the goat and the later Easter). Given the holiday week, this newsletter will be a bit lighter on analysis than usual, but I have some interesting charts for you. Bitcoin’s price did relatively ok this week, and below I’ll take you through my thought process on evaluating the significance. This is how the sausage (or goat) is made. – George Kaloudis |
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Bitcoin (BTC) put up solid numbers last week, gaining about 1.5% from Monday to Friday (I cut it at 2 p.m. EST, I was tired of watching bitcoin go from up almost 5% to only 1.5% on the week between Thursday night and Friday morning). Normally this type of move is only worth celebrating in the traditional markets. But 2022 has been a year of a mostly uninspiring, range-bound existence for bitcoin (and it’s still in that $37,500 and $42,500 range). Let’s walk through the usual course of action I take to try and figure out what’s going on. |
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After I see a movement in price, the next thing I do is check on market sentiment to get a feel of … well … feeling. There are two ways to do this, anecdotally and empirically. The anecdotal bit lives exclusively in my own head and is informed by the general “vibe” of my Twitter feed. The empirical bit is made up of the “Fear and Greed Index,” which aims to quantify how apprehensive or avaricious market participants are by looking at factors like volatility, volume, dominance and search engine trends. If investors are worried, the index flashes “fear” and if they’re excited (and dreaming of Lamborghinis), it flashes “greed.” After this price movement, anecdotally, the sentiment on Twitter seemed good. People were excited about the modest run-up and weren’t really warning against anything. Empirically, the index showed “fear,” where it has been for most of April. |
After I gauge sentiment, I look at various data feeds and look for an “interesting thing.” This week’s interesting thing happened to be about exchange volumes. According to data from Kaiko, weekly trade volume for bitcoin and ether (ETH) on major centralized exchanges fell to its lowest level since last summer’s short-lived crypto bear market. Looking at another highly traded cryptocurrency like ether in tandem acts as a gut check that it’s not something unique to bitcoin (now that would be another interesting thing). |
Once I find an interesting thing (or things!) I try to figure out the “so what” to form a view and sound smart when my friends ask me why they’re losing or making money. I look to answer the question: Is this interesting thing something worth allocating headspace to or is it nothing to worry about? On the surface, low trade volumes seem inauspicious, especially considering the last time they were this low was when bitcoin’s price dipped below $30,000. However, if we zoom out a tad, this looks like nothing out of the ordinary. It looks like the cyclical nature of markets and not some sort of mass exit from the market. A mass exit would, for the record, require a jump in volume as those participants unload their positions. Right now, I’m not worried. Maybe I’ll start worrying if exchange volumes fall even more. The last thing I do after having my opinion formed on the latest “interesting thing,” I zoom all the way out and check out one of my favorite charts that calms me as a bitcoiner. That chart shows the illiquid supply alongside the liquid and highly liquid supply of bitcoin. Illiquid supply represents the amount of bitcoin that hasn’t moved or been sold in a while. The chart largely speaks for itself. There’s a lot of illiquid supply out there and it has been growing. |
The holders are holding. Zoom out. Think longer. |
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Australia’s crypto ETF market is ramping up. TAKEAWAY: 21Shares, which has $2.5 billion in assets under management with 30 global exchange-traded products, has partnered with ETF Securities to launch a bitcoin exchange-traded fund and an ether ETF in Australia. The two funds, which go live on April 27, will be the first Australian ETFs to invest directly in bitcoin and ether. These funds give Australian investors a way to gain exposure to a growing crypto asset class without the need to maintain a crypto wallet. Read more here. To blockade Russian firms from the global financial system, the U.S. governmentsanctioned BitRiver, a Russian crypto mining company. TAKEAWAY: On April 20, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control took action against BitRiver for allegedly helping Russia monetize its natural resources through the sale of virtual currency mining capacity. Igor Runet, BitRiver’s CEO and founder, came out swinging, calling the sanctions “an attempt to change the global balance of power in favor of American companies.” Read more here. Lazarus, a North Korean hacking group, has been linked to the Ronin Network’s $625 million exploit. TAKEAWAY: The U.S. Treasury Department added an Ethereum address, labeled as “Ronin Bridge Exploiter” by wallet profiler Nansen, to its sanctions list on April 14 as the FBI tied Lazarus to the validator breach. “This demonstrates Treasury’s commitment to use all available authorities to disrupt malicious cyber actors and block ill-gotten criminal proceeds,” said a Treasury Department spokesperson. Of the stolen funds from the largest exploit in crypto history, 14% has already been laundered, according to tracing firm Elliptic. Read more here. Binance.US leaves crypto lobbying group Blockchain Association TAKEAWAY: Binance.US, the American arm of the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, quit Blockchain Association after less than two years due to a difference in “values, goals and standards,” a person close to the company told CoinDesk. Now Binance.US is forming an in-house lobbying shop to push forward its own policy agenda in Washington. Read more here. Coinbase launched the beta version of its non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace TAKEAWAY: On April 20, Coinbase for the first time permitted a small group of users from a waitlist of 3 million to use the platform. The marketplace not only supports NFT trading on the Ethereum blockchain, but it also sports a social media element where users can highlight their profile and follow accounts whose content will appear in a “For You” feed. “This product is more than just buying and selling, it is about building your community,” said Sanchan Saxena, Coinbase’s vice president of product. Read more here. – Sage D. Young |
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