Battle lines barely budged in 2022

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman and Alexandra Marquez

Thursday, November 17, 2022

FIRST READ

2022 midterms produced more status quo than change

Drew Angerer / Getty Images

If it’s THURSDAY… NBC News projects that Republicans retake House control – eight days after Election Day… House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to address her future to colleagues, per NBC’s Ali Vitali, Haley Talbot and Ryan Nobles… Karen Bass wins race for Los Angeles mayor… Legislation codifying protections for same-sex marriage clears Senate hurdle… Ukraine and allies clash over Poland blast… And $31 million has already been booked and spent over the advertising airwaves in GA-SEN runoff.

But FIRST… Republicans won the House; Democrats kept control of the Senate.

Beyond that, however, what stands out is how little actually changed from the 2022 midterms.

Only seven House incumbents have lost re-election (five Democrats and two Republicans).

Just one incumbent governor went down to defeat (Nevada Democrat Steve Sisolak).

And not a single incumbent senator lost (though we’ll see if that holds in next month’s Georgia runoff).

Maybe even more tellingly, 17 of 17 2020 Trump states elected a Republican senator (with the Alaska results still outstanding), while 15 of 16 Biden states elected a Dem senator (with Wisconsin being the one exception).

Again, we’ll have to see if the Georgia runoff continues that Trump state vs. Biden state trend.

As Bruce Mehlman, a Republican political and public-policy observer, puts it: 2022 was “the least change-y change election since 2002.”

We told you this before Election Day and we’ll say it again: The 2022 midterms – despite the billions spent and all of the maneuvering – barely shifted the battle lines in America’s political trench warfare since 2016.

After that Trump-vs.-Clinton presidential race six years ago, the House of Representatives has flipped twice (in 2018 and 2022); Republicans haven’t held more than 53 Senate seats; and Democrats haven’t held more than 50.

So much has happened in our politics since 2016, but there’s been so little movement.

Tweet of the Day

GOP wins House, Pelosi addresses her future

Data Download: The number of the day is ... 12

That’s how many Senate Republicans voted Wednesday to advance a bill codifying federal same-sex marriage protections, all but guaranteeing its eventual passage.

The Wednesday vote came after Senate negotiators decided earlier this year to punt the vote until after the midterm elections as they tried to garner support from at least 10 Senate Republicans to overcome the 60-vote filibuster.

The 12 Republicans who voted to advance the bill Wednesday, per NBC News’ Frank Thorp, included three retiring senators – Roy Blunt of Missouri, Richard Burr of North Carolina and Rob Portman of Ohio. The list also included senators from ruby-red states, including Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Mitt Romney of Utah and Todd Young of Indiana.

The other GOP senators backing the measure included Maine’s Susan Collins, Iowa’s Joni Ernst, Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, and North Carolina’s Thom Tillis.

Other numbers you need to know today

37

How many Senate Republicans supported Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for GOP leader, while 10 opposed him and one voted present, per the NBC News Capitol Hill team.

16

How many Senate Republicans supported an unsuccessful motion to delay leadership elections, per Thorp.

14

That’s how many candidates who denied the 2020 election results were elected as governor, secretary of state or attorney general, per NBC News’ Adam Edelman.

0

How many women have ever served as mayor of Los Angeles. Karen Bass will be the first, NBC News’ Decision Desk projects.

$850 million

How much two anonymous donors, with checks of more than $425 million each, donated to the conservative non-profit DonorsTrust, according to a tax filing first obtained by Politico.

Blog / Meet The Press

Midterm roundup: Seven House races still uncalled

Marc Lester/Anchorage Daily News via A

A little more than a week after the polls closed, NBC News’ Decision Desk can now project that Republicans will take control of the House and its current House estimate is that the GOP will have a 221-214 majority, plus-or-minus two seats.

It comes as there’s now just seven uncalled House races — the Decision Desk called CA-27 for Republicans, and ME-2 and CA-49 for Democrats on Wednesday.

Here’s a look at those final races that will decide how slim the GOP majority will be (guided, as always, by race ratings from The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter):

Toss ups:

Other competitive races:

A surprisingly close race:

Safe seat:

Runoff watch: The big money has landed

The cavalry is headed into the Georgia Senate runoff. NBC News’ Natasha Korecki reporting that Georgia Honor, the Senate Majority PAC-affiliated group (which backs Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock), is upping its ad reservations by $8.8 million after the top Senate GOP super PAC announced it was booking more than $14 million in ads there.

Starting from the day after Election Day and including ad bookings through the runoff, there’s more than $31 million booked and spent on the airwaves for the runoff alone, per AdImpact.

Meanwhile, in a new interview with the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Warnock blasted Republican Herschel Walker and his allies, saying they “crossed a line where my family is concerned” by evoking his custody dispute with his ex-wife, who has accused him of running over her foot (Warnock denies the allegation).

The Walker campaign hit back by saying Warnock “and his allies have no problem with Herschel’s family being attacked” and that “Warnock doesn’t want to be called names” (Democrats have highlighted allegations that Walker was violent with past partners and encouraged at least two women to get an abortion – allegations Walker denies).

And coming to the stump this weekend — Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, fresh off his re-election, will campaign with Walker.

The best of Meet the Press

ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world?

A GOP-controlled House will bring plenty of investigations into the Biden administration, with some calling for Biden’s impeachment, per NBC News’ Scott Wong.

Two new subvariants of the Omicron strain of Covid-19 have become dominant in the U.S.

Republicans in Ohio are already eyeing Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s Senate seat as a top target 2024, with one unsuccessful 2022 candidate already considering a run, NBC News’ Henry Gomez reports.

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Thanks,

Chuck, Mark, Ben, Bridget and Alexandra

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