Bad omens and new opportunities

Dear Reader,

I’ve been writing quite a bit recently about the importance of “thinking the unthinkable” to remain defensive, but this has been a longstanding theme in my writing, dating back to 2011.

In short, one of my jobs in Thoughts from the Frontline is thinking the unthinkable. What are the things on page 16 that will eventually make their way up to the front page?

In 2011, I wrote that the biggest risk we faced was the sovereign debt issue in Europe. The growing debt didn’t seem sustainable at the time. Unfortunately, our suspicions were proven right when Greece’s debt default became front-page news. And we did do the unthinkable: we went to negative rates!

In 2016, we wrote again about issues in Europe, this time in France’s unsecured liabilities. To quote that issue, “Europe’s big problem is unfunded liabilities, and they will have to cut their pensions. Can anybody tell me how loud French pensioners will scream when their pensions are cut?”

Again, we got our answer to that question this year, when rioters took to the street to voice their displeasure on proposed pension changes.

This year, at The Strategic Investment Conference (SIC), we’re revisiting the topic again. Just as in 2011 and 2016, we’re facing a slew of systemic risks—some known and some unknown.

Taking those into account, what are the second- and third-order effects? In other words, what will become front-page news next year that we can prepare for today?

As it stands, we have a growing sovereign debt crisis, threats to the dollar as the global reserve currency, rising interest rates, softening employment numbers, and ongoing geopolitical tensions with China and Russia.

With these things in mind, I’m grateful to have our 19th annual Strategic Investment Conference just around the corner.

As I write, that lineup includes some of the best and brightest:

Of course, we’ll also add to that our list of audience favorites like Louis Gave, David “Rosie” Rosenberg, Lacy Hunt, and Felix Zulauf to total over 40 expert speakers coming to the virtual stage.

We’ve assembled our faculty with one major goal in mind: provide us with a clearer picture of all the risks and opportunities on the table so we can position ourselves wisely over the next year.

If you haven’t already, I urge you to claim your virtual pass now. We’ve been putting on this conference for nearly 20 years now, and I can confidently say this will be the most important SIC we’ve ever held.

Click here now for all the details—the dates, complete speaker lineup, and how to register. You won’t want to miss it.

Your planning today for tomorrow’s surprises analyst,

John Mauldin
Co-Founder, Mauldin Economics