If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.
TODAY:Prices: Bitcoin (BTC) $9,721 (+3.75%) | Ether (ETH) $203 (+1.4%)After bitcoin's halving earlier this week proved a dud in markets, speculation that the Federal Reserve might eventually consider negative interest rates has rekindled traders' spirits — and the cryptocurrency's price is rising again. News and analysis: Traders are circling closer and closer around a handful of cryptos, as BSTX pauses to consider what a regulated security token exchange would really mean for the U.S. financial system.
MARKET MOVES
After bitcoin's much-hyped halving failed to generate a price rally, crypto traders are already turning to a new bullish investment thesis: the possibility the Federal Reserve might cut its benchmark interest rate below zero. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a televised interview Wednesday that negative rates are "not something that we're looking at." The remark disappointed U.S. stock traders who were hoping for an easier monetary stance, helping to send the Standard & Poor's 500 down by 1.7% to a three-week low. Bitcoin, on the other hand, jumped some 6% on Wednesday to about $9,300. The cryptocurrency has now recovered about half of what it lost in a four-day sell-off through Monday, when bitcoin underwent the third halving in its 11-year history. Source: TradingView. Some analysts had predicted the halving, which cut bitcoin's block reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, could send prices to $90,000 or even higher; the anaemic price action in the lead-up to the event left some bulls feeling underwhelmed. But the prospect of negative interest rates might be rekindling traders' spirits — or at least refocusing attention on bitcoin's possible use as a hedge against the inflation that might come from historically easy monetary policy. Despite Powell's comments, traders in U.S. interest-rate futures on Wednesday continued to bet that the Fed might implement negative rates by early next year, according to Reuters. So far, the Fed has relied on monetary-policy actions it used in the 2008 financial crisis, including cutting rates close to zero and injecting trillions of dollars of new money into global markets. For crypto traders, the new bet is that negative interest rates could eventually help push up inflation — reducing the dollar's purchasing power, and thus pushing up the price of bitcoin (BTC) in dollar terms. "If rates go negative, more and more people will realize what we already see," Omer Ozden, CEO of the blockchain-focused merchant bank RockTree Capital, told First Mover in a Telegram message. "The risk is not being in BTC. The risk is being in fiat." Source: CoinDesk Research. Bitcoin prices are up 30% in 2020, an enviable performance when compared with returns in traditional asset classes. Gold, traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, is up just 13% this year, while the S&P 500 is, coincidentally, also down by 13%. Since 2014, four major central banks have experimented with negative rates, including the European Central Bank and those of Switzerland, Japan and Sweden. U.S. President Donald Trump, who has not shied away from using his bully pulpit in recent years to pressure the Fed to cut rates, tweeted on Tuesday that "as long as other countries are receiving the benefits of Negative Rates, the USA should also accept the “GIFT”. Big numbers!" It goes without saying that looser monetary policy could help stimulate the economy, which would likely help his reelection chances in November. The whole idea of negative interest rates can be a bit of a head-scratcher, of course. "The practice of paying people in order to borrow money flips all financial models on their heads," Mati Greenspan, founder of the foreign-exchange and cryptocurrency research firm Quantum Economics, told First Mover in an e-mail. "Suddenly debt becomes something that is coveted and savings become a thing of the past." But there's some support among top U.S. economists for the emergency use of negative rates. Narayana Kocherlakota, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, wrote last month for Bloomberg Opinion that U.S. monetary policymakers "should fight a rapidly deepening recession by taking interest rates below zero." In 2016, the late Carnegie Mellon University economics Professor Marvin Goodfriend argued central banks should consider negative rates as a "realistic policy option" in a financial crisis because large-scale balance-sheet expansions might lead to "destructive inflationary finance." Ariel Zetlin-Jones, an associate economics professor at Carnegie Mellon, who has conducted research on blockchain networks, said in a phone interview Wednesday that negative rates are a "tricky issue" and could prove unpopular because they might cause "plumbing issues in the banking system." Banks might try to pass along the negative rates to depositors, and some customers might accept those, given that recessions tend to be deflationary, he said. A report this week from the U.S. Labor Department showed that core consumer prices fell 0.4% in April, a record drop in data going back to 1957. "Even if banks nominally are charging a slight negative rate, if you think prices are going to continue to fall, you're still making money on average," Zetlin-Jones said.
Some savers might simply choose to withdraw their money and hold cash — to avoid the negative rates. "But that may not be something they want to do," Zetlin-Jones said. "So they might look to send those funds elsewhere, say into bonds that pay some interest, or into other speculative asset classes, say into bitcoin." Unlike many stocks, bitcoin pays no dividend; unlike bonds, bitcoin pays no coupon. In that sense, negative rates in the U.S. would reduce the "opportunity cost of holding non-income producing assets like BTC or gold, potentially making them even more attractive to investors," Kevin Kelly, co-founder of the cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, told First Mover in an e-mail. "In my opinion, there's a non-zero chance the Fed winds up taking rates below zero, despite Powell's dismissive attitude towards the idea, if current deflationary pressures persist," Kelly wrote. A non-zero chance? With bitcoin's halving now in the past, that might be enough to salvage optimism among the bulls.
– Brad Keoun, Senior Markets Reporter
SPONSORED BY BITSTAMP
Bitstamp is the original global cryptocurrency exchange. Whether you’re trading on our web platform, mobile app or industry-leading APIs, Bitstamp gives you the professional-grade tools to execute your strategy. Join over four million traders and download the Bitstamp app or visit Bitstamp.net/Pro to get started today! Learn More
TWEET OF THE DAY
BITCOIN WATCH
BTC: Price: $9,721 (BPI) | 24-Hr High: $9,809 | 24-Hr Low: $8,953 Trend: Bitcoin has pulled back sharply from $9,940 to $9,600 in the last few minutes and could suffer deeper declines, according to price-volume analysis. As seen on the hourly chart, the entire recovery rally from lows below $8,200 observed earlier this week is accompanied by low buying volumes (small green bars). A low-volume price rise is often short-lived and reversed quickly. Moreover, the ongoing pullback is backed by an uptick in the sell volume or red bar and looks to have legs. Further, the hourly chart relative strength index has rolled over from overbought or above-70 levels, signaling scope for a deeper decline. The immediate support is located at $9,418 (horizontal line). A violation there would expose the 200-hour average located at $9,200. However, if prices hold above $9,600 for the next couple of hours, a fresh move toward $10,000 could be seen. Note that bitcoin balances on cryptocurrency exchanges have slipped to 12-month lows, according to the data provided by the blockchain intelligence firm Glassnode. It indicates a strong holding sentiment. Also, the daily chart is looking constructive - prices rose 5% on Wednesday, confirming bullish revival signaled by Tuesday's green inside bar candlestick pattern. An inside bar candlestick occurs when an asset hovers within the trading range of the previous day and is widely considered a sign of indecision in the market place. Hence, a positive follow-through, similar to the one witnessed on Wednesday, is considered a sign of bullish reversal
– Omkar Godbole, Markets Analyst
#NYBWGives CoinDesk has joined Gitcoin, The Giving Block and Ethereal Summit to support charities helping communities in difficult times. We're raising $100,000 and giving you a voice through the quadratic funding model. CoinDesk is matching $25,000 of funds raised. Learn how it works and how to donate.
Is bitcoin the answer for a global monetary system not longer served by the dollar standard? Airing Friday, May 15, episode 3 of The Breakdown: Money Reimagined examines bitcoin and permissionless stablecoins - both of which are forcing the global monetary system to examine deeply ingrained beliefs.
The Breakdown: Money Reimagined is a podcast crossover micro series exploring the battle for the future of money in the context of a post COVID-19 world. The four-part podcast features over a dozen voices including Consensus: Distributed speakers Niall Ferguson, Nic Carter and Michael Casey. New episodes air Fridays on the CoinDesk Podcast Network. Subscribe here.
WHAT'S HOT?
Cryptocurrency Market Is Becoming Even More Concentrated (Bloomberg)Thecryptocurrency market is becoming even more concentrated, says research house Messari. Among the ten largest cryptos by market cap, bitcoin, tether and ether accounted for about 90% of trading volume, up from 75% a year ago. Boston Security Token Exchange (BSTX) Resubmits Rulebook To The SEC (Forbes)The Boston Security Token Exchange (BSTX) said resubmitting its proposed rulebook to the U.S' Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), would give them time to consider how a regulated digital security token exchange would impact the mainstream financial sector. Reddit Rolls Out ‘Community Points’ on Ethereum to Incentivize Positive Behavior (CoinDesk)Reddit has expanded its "community points" trial, offering users a way to earn a "piece of their favorite communities." In a slide presentation, Reddit revealed its plans to utilize the Ethereum network to incentivize the creation of "quality posts and comments." Fund Manager Got NY BitLicense 11 Months After Hiring Its Architect (CoinDesk)Benjamin Lawsky, the former financial regulator who created New York’s BitLicense in 2015, joined New York Digital Investment Group Asset Advisory LLC (NYDIG) nearly a year before the bitcoin fund manager applied for, and received, its license.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.