The ‘unprecedented’ pressure to suspend arms exports to Israel

Good morning.

Six months since the 7 October massacre by Hamas and the Israeli military’s ensuing ground offensive in Gaza, Israel is more isolated than ever before, and at odds with its closest allies.

One hundred and thirty four hostages are still in captivity, of which about 30 are believed dead, and much of Gaza has been turned into a wasteland. Satellite images suggest more than half of all buildings have been destroyed by the military offensive; the soil and groundwater have been contaminated by munitions and toxins; and, as hunger grips the coastal territory, Israel has been accused of using starvation as a weapon of war and provoking famine in the besieged strip. According to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-run territory the death toll stands at more than 33,000, mostly women and children, and more than 75,000 people have been wounded, with little to no access to medical care as most hospitals are no longer fully operational.

But it was the killing of seven aid workers, six of whom were citizens of allied countries, that brought about a tipping point. The diplomatic pressure is now being piled on to Israel, with calls to suspend arms exports growing louder in the UK and US. Over the weekend, shadow foreign secretary David Lammy said he had “serious concerns about a breach in international humanitarian law” over Israel’s actions in Gaza because “far too many people have died”.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke to the Guardian’s diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, about whether international pressure will change how Israel fights the war. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘We’re seeing a level of pressure that is unprecedented’

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have released interim findings of their investigation (which critics have stressed is not independent) into the killing of World Central Kitchen (WCK) aid workers by Israeli drone strikes. The inquiry found the first strike on the aid convoy was a case of mistaken identity and the other two strikes were “grave errors”. They have also dismissed two officers over their role in the strikes, but the rare contrition is unlikely to provide any comfort.

WCK’s founder, José Andrés, initially said his workers were killed “systematically” and “targeted deliberately, nonstop, until everybody was dead in this convoy”. In response to the military’s findings, he said that the “IDF cannot credibly investigate its own failure in Gaza”, adding that “it’s not enough to simply try to avoid further humanitarian deaths, which have now approached close to 200 [aid workers]. All civilians need to be protected, and all innocent people in Gaza need to be fed and safe. And all hostages must be released.” He later added that Israel is engaging “war against humanity itself”.

“What we’re seeing is a level of pressure that is unprecedented,” Patrick says. “However, one may note the fact that this inflection point has been caused by western aid workers being killed as opposed to the many, many Palestinians who have been killed, both aid workers and civilians.”

The UK government split

There are a growing number of Conservative MPs and peers who are calling for an end to UK arms sales to Israel, though they are not the majority. Alan Duncan, a former minister, is under investigation by the Tories for admonishing what he called pro-Israel “extremists” in his party. On the other side, there is a group of MPs, primarily on the hard right of the party, who are adamant in their support not just for Israel, but for this particular far-right government.

There’s a dilemma for David Cameron, who is also now under pressure to publish the legal advice by the Foreign Office into whether Israel is in breach of international humanitarian law. “If the advice was either leaked or published and it was clear [that Israel breached international law] I think Cameron would be in a difficult position,” Patrick says. “It’s true that he can ignore legal advice, but I think he would have a lot of explaining to do if he does, and there would be a legally arguable case that he was under compulsion from the arms export control regime to act if the advice was clear that international humanitarian law was being breached.”

Both Cameron and Rishi Sunak do not seem to want to make any decision yet. Cameron did warn in a column for the Sunday Times (£) that support for Israel is not “unconditional”, indicating a further hardening of the UK’s position as the war continues. “We expect such a proud and successful democracy to abide by international humanitarian law, even when challenged,” he added.

But Downing Street has given no indication that it plans to halt sales and in reality is likely trying to avoid making any firm moves before the US.

It’s happened before

The banning of arms sales has been presented as a “totemic issue” that would amount to a “total breach of relations between the UK and Israel”, Patrick says. “I don’t really take that view. If the UK had acted more swiftly and clearly, then it wouldn’t have become so difficult to do this.” He also points out that the UK has banned arms sales to Israel before: in 2009 and in 1982.

Growing global response

The Netherlands, Spain, Canada, Belgium and Italy have all suspended arms sales to Israel. Germany and the US, by far the biggest exporters of arms to Israel, have not indicated that they will follow suit. “The amount of arms supplies that the UK gives to Israel is pretty minuscule in comparison with what the US provides,” Patrick says. The US made up 69% of Israel’s arms imports between 2019 and 2023, $3.8bn annually, in comparison with the UK’s £42m ($53m) in 2022 (though the UK may be underreporting its arms sales). “It would still affect the United States if the British government comes to the view that humanitarian law is being breached, as Biden would be under yet more pressure to explain why he is not willing to do the same.”

Though the US has not committed to putting conditions on its arms exports to Israel the mood has grown sour. Biden has been trying to use America’s soft power to encourage Israel to change tack, to no avail. The statement from the US late last week stated the clear need for Israel to change its approach on how it negotiates with Hamas on the issue of a ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages and the release of Palestinian political prisoners.

Up until this point, Benjamin Netanyahu has not heeded any of the warnings issued by his allies. “But it was striking that within hours of Biden’s call the Israeli security cabinet met and did things that Israel has adamantly refused to do since October,” Patrick says.

For the first time, Netanyahu overrode the objections of the extreme right within his own cabinet and reopened a key crossing into Gaza. Far-right Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, for instance, was not present at the security cabinet meetings where it was decided to open the Erez crossing for humanitarian aid. Whether it was a calculated political manoeuvre or pure chance that he wasn’t there, Netanyahu is starting to take risks with the extreme elements in his coalition. “That’s really been one of the things that he has not been willing to do so far,” says Patrick, “and that puts the fragility of the Israeli coalition government on the agenda”.

Pressure is building on Netanyahu domestically too. For the second weekend in a row he has faced huge anti-government protests in Israel. Organisers have said 100,000 people converged at demonstrations to call for the embattled prime minister’s resignation. “They haven’t learned anything, they haven’t changed,” Israel’s opposition leader Yair Lapid said. “Until we send them home, they won’t give this country a chance to move forward.”

However, as Jerusalem correspondent Bethan McKernan notes, Netanyahu doesn’t appear to be going anywhere for now. His coalition remains stable, public support for the war in Gaza is strong, and even if elections are held sooner than 2026, it is not impossible that Netanyahu could once again cobble together a coalition.

What else we’ve been reading

The competition is hotting up: Patrick Barkham puts forward the St Piran’s hermit crab for Invertebrate of the Year. It may grow to only 15mm long but this cracking crustacean is worthy of your vote. Toby Moses, head of newsletters

“When news and entertainment become so entwined, do we risk losing sight of these events’ real-world impact?” Elle Hunt asks in response to Netflix’s new drama starring Gillian Anderson and Billie Piper. Scoop takes a look at Emily Maitlis’s infamous Newsnight interview with Prince Andrew and its fallout, and leaves many of us wondering what the point of dramatising a news event that happened half a decade ago is. Nimo

My colleague Phil Daoust continues his investigations into the limits of the 60-year-old body – this week, is it possible for him to get ripped? I’ll report back on his six pack later. Toby

The highly anticipated solar eclipse has spurred heaps of conspiracy theories, marketing gimmicks and memes. Alaina Demopoulos gives us a rundown of the most funny – and not at all funny – moments on social media. Nimo

Emine Saner’s interview with Patric Gagne is a fascinating look at a condition more commonly examined in schlocky horror films. So what’s it actually like to be a “sociopath”? Gagne explains how she manages to control her urges while maintaining a happy family life: “there is nothing inherently immoral about having limited access to emotion – it’s not what we feel, it’s what we do”. Toby

Sport

Football | A wonder strike from Bruno Fernandes (above) helped Manchester United to a 2-2 draw against Liverpool, putting a dent in the visiting side’s title ambitions in the process. Elsewhere in the Premier League, Tottenham are now back in fourth after a 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest and Sheffield United earned a point against Chelsea after drawing 2-2. In Scotland, Rangers salvaged a 3-3 draw at home to Celtic in the race for the SPL title.

Formula One | Max Verstappen won the Japanese Grand Prix, with Toto Wolff – team principal at rivals Mercedes – conceding the title is already in the bag for the Red Bull driver.

Rugby union | George Hendy scored two tries to send Northampton into the Champions Cup quarter finals after a thrilling 24-14 win over Munster.

The front pages

The Guardian has “Carers taken to court over ‘heartrending’ minor errors”. The Times says “Rise of the 24-hour wait for a bed in A&E”. The Telegraph has “Cameron warns US over Kyiv aid block”. The FT has “Biden poised to warn Beijing against aggressive tactics in South China Sea”.

The Mirror has a story on surgery tourism combing veterinary and cosmetic options, with the headline: “Turkey ‘vet and a nose job’ package”. The Sun covers the similar topic with “‘Deadly ops’ on sale in UK hotels”. The Express says “Exposed: care home crisis putting Britain to shame”.

The Mail has “Rayner’s making a fool of you, Keir”, quoting Tory party chairman Richard Holden talking about Angela Rayner’s tax affairs. The i has “Sign NDA to see charges, new-build owners told”.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

When Ken Lunn (pictured above) found himself a widowed single parent to three young children, the strains of juggling work and childcare left the tech professional with depression and insomnia. “It was a hellish few years,” he says on reflection. “I didn’t know how to cope.” As time passed, an exploration of meditation became a way for Lunn to “calm my mind”. And so, as he approached retirement, he decided that he wanted to commit his later years to helping others deal with their own stresses and traumas by passing on his knowledge and teaching mindful breathing and observation techniques. “I love seeing the effect it has on people and I’m learning something new every day,” says Lunn, who holds weekly classes and works alongside the charitable organisation The Mindfulness Network. “It’s become my purpose.”

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