ARM Activity Rising in Response to Rates

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported double digit increases in the interest rates of most mortgage products again last week, and refinancing volume fell for the fifth straight week. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, dragged lower by refinancing which decreased another 5 percent to its slowest weekly pace since 2019. Applications for home purchases, however rose another 1 percent although it was still down 6 percent from the same week in 2021. Both conventional and government purchase applications increased. Given what he said was the faster than expected rate increases and “the likelihood of more aggressive actions from the Federal Reserve to curb inflation,” chief economist Mike Fratantoni is revising MBA’s mortgage forecast. He is now calling for mortgage originations to total $2.58 trillion in 2022 – a 35.5 percent decline from 2021. While purchase originations are still forecast to reach a record $1.72 trillion this year – a 4 percent increase from 2021 - refinance originations are now expected to fall 64 percent to $841 billion. Fratantoni said the rapid increase in rates, higher home prices, and ongoing supply constraints are expected to lead to a decline in home sales, but “MBA continues to expect purchase originations to reach a new record in 2022. Even though existing sales volume will be slightly lower than last year, the continued growth in new home sales and the rapid rise in home prices should deliver a smaller, but solid, 4 percent annual growth in purchase origination volume .”

April 13, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News ARM Activity Rising in Response to Rates The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported double digit increases in the interest rates of most mortgage products again last week, and refinancing volume fell for the fifth straight week. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan ap... (read more) MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: How About Now (For A Ceiling in Rates) ? How About Now (For A Ceiling in Rates) ? Producer prices surged much higher than expected in this morning's data, but bonds found a way to rally anyway. Then a weaker 30yr bonds auction was more or less... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Fall Moderately For 2nd Day in a Row When it comes to financial markets and mortgage rates, things rarely happen in straight lines. Each time rates spiked to new multi-year highs in recent weeks, they've managed to find a day or two of reprieve. Today was the second day of o... (read more) Rob Chrisman U/W, LOS, Fair Servicing Products; New Loan and Servicing Products; Webinars and Training I happen to be visiting Manhattan this week. Besides the news about the subway shooting, the overall “hum” of this place being unmistakable and I mention this for two specific reasons. First, the bartender trainee at the restaurant last night was fro... (read more) Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates Fall Moderately For 2nd Day in a Row 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.99% -0.13% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 4.99% -0.13 0.40 15 Yr. Fixed 4.34% -0.03 0.40 30 Yr. FHA 4.61% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.29% -0.04 0.00 5/1 ARM 3.97% -0.05 0.50 Updates Daily - Last Update: 4/13 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.34% -0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 4.72% +0.05 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 3.91% +0.08 0.80 5/1 Yr. ARM 3.56% +0.06 0.30 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 4.80% +0.30 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 4.01% +0.25 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.40% +0.29 0.44 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/30 MBS / Treasuries MBS Live Recap: How About Now (For A Ceiling in Rates) ? UMBS 30YR 4.0 100.64 +0.19 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.0 100.64 +0.19 UMBS 4.5 102.44 +0.23 GNMA 4.0 101.56 +0.16 GNMA 4.5 102.95 +0.20 Pricing as of: 4/13 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 2.7063 -0.0207 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 2.363 -0.043 5 YR Treasury 2.661 -0.036 7 YR Treasury 2.717 -0.035 10 YR Treasury 2.706 -0.021 30 YR Treasury 2.818 +0.012 Pricing as of: 4/13 5:21PM EST Latest Video There's a good chance the 10-year has topped, says BMO's Brian Belski We're looking at $2 trillion of mortgages this year, says Rocket CEO 30-year bond auction yield 2.815% The 2pm Bond Report - April 13, 2022 Around the Web CNBC Treasury yields climb ahead of further inflation data Wells Fargo An Early Look at the Spring Selling Season wells fargo We believe this likely marks the peak in post-COVID inflation -Wells Fargo Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March CNBC White House says it expects inflation to be 'extraordinarily elevated' in new report Reuters Fed to raise rates aggressively in coming months, say economists - Reuters News Calculated Risk Blog BLS: CPI increased 1.2% in March; Core CPI increased 0.3% Calculated Risk Blog Housing Inventory April 11th Update: Inventory up 2.3% Week-over-week; Up 8.3% from Seasonal Bottom CNBC Consumer fears over inflation hit a record high in March, New York Fed survey shows Calculated Risk Blog Apartment Vacancy Rate Declined in Q1 CNBC 10-year Treasury yield hits 2.82% its highest point since December 2018 Wall Street Journal New York Fed: Public Expectations for March 2023 Inflation Hit 6.6% Record Fannie Mae Consumers Discuss Affordability and the Impact of Remote Work on Housing Preferences

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