| Good morning Voornaam, The heavy industrials space is fascinating. These businesses have vast operating leverage, which means that small changes in revenue can drive much larger percentage changes in operating profits. This is because of the prevalence of fixed costs.
Now, when everything is in your control, that's fine. Sadly, that's rarely the case. At ArcelorMittal for example, there are many external factors that have contributed to the near-demise of the longs business, with only IDC money keeping it alive at the moment. That money is about to run out and there's no real sign of improvement, so I think the end is nigh for that part of the group.
At South32, the Mozal Aluminium smelter only works if they can get a reliable, affordable electricity supply. It looks like both those things are in doubt from March next year based on the difficulties in renewing current supply agreements. South32 has therefore flagged a significant likely impairment.
Meanwhile, in the completely different world of supermarkets in the UK, Supermarket Income REIT has bought a property occupied by Tesco. What makes the deal noteworthy is the price that has been paid. It looks like there are some bargains to be had in that market!
Finally, Tharisa corrected a disclosure mistake in net cash in their recent production report, while Mantengu Mining is changing its name in a signal of planned future activity.
Get all the details you need on these updates (and the Nibbles) in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
Keen to learn more about global market opportunities, particularly those beyond the US? Do you want to gain a deeper understanding of markets like India and China? The latest Ghost Stories podcast with Kingsley Williams of Satrix is perfect for you, delivering great insights into the world beyond the S&P 500. Enjoy it here>>>
Have a great day! |
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| SATRIX PODCAST: Beyond the S&P 500 - emerging market opportunities |
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| | | With half of 2025 in the rearview mirror, it's been a period in which investors have actively looked for opportunities beyond the United States. That's good news not just for alternatives like Europe, but emerging markets like India and China as well.
Kingsley Williams joined me to talk about the key drivers and opportunities in each of those markets.
Enjoy the podcast and transcript at this link>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: The JSE Winners' Club in 2025 |
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| | | At the halfway mark in 2025, we've lived through some huge geopolitical shifts. The world's gaze has shifted beyond just the US market.
Many investors choose to stick with what they know in times like these. This means homegrown favourites on the JSE.
But which stocks have been the big winners thus far this year, and what do they have in common?
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| PODCAST: Capital Markets in South Africa - the Think Big South Africa Competition |
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| PSG Financial Services is the proud sponsor of the Think Big South Africa competition, in collaboration with Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA).
PSG wants to encourage South Africans to get involved in their country at the highest level, bringing forward policy ideas and constructive solutions to drive conversations and real change in our country. PSG CEO Francois Gouws joined me to explain why they are such strong supporters of this initiative.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | ArcelorMittal's longs business is still likely to close. South32's Mozal Aluminium smelter is also at risk. Supermarket Income REIT's latest deal is a fascinating data point for property pricing in the UK. Tharisa corrected a financial error. Mantengu Mining is changing its name. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - Attacq |
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| In the 57th edition of Unlock the Stock, Attacq returned to the platform to talk through their recent numbers and strategy, including interesting trends in the property market across areas like retail and office space. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - The boxer and the million-dollar burger |
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| | | What did George Foreman, the man who once flattened Joe Frazier in two rounds, know about small kitchen appliances? Apparently, quite a lot - at least when it came to selling them. Dominique Olivier tells the story of George Foreman Grill, a wild success for Salton that made the boxer fabulously wealthy. Read it here>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday - How South Africa can shift gears for growth |
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| | | South Africa has spent more than a decade in economic drift. So, how do we get back on track? In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs is joined by Cumesh Moodliar, CEO of Investec South Africa, and Osagyefo Mazwai, Investment Strategist at Investec Wealth & Investment International, to unpack the hard truths, and outline a roadmap to recovery and long-term prosperity. Enjoy it here>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Get ready - JPMorgan is set to report results today. This officially kicks off the new earnings season in the US market, with companies reporting on exactly what happened during the months when the tariff battle really kicked off. It's going to be exciting to say the least!
I expect to see great numbers from the trading and asset management businesses, as there's been so much volatility in the market and asset prices are at all-time highs. I'm less convinced that investment banking would've done well, as it's hard to do major deals when nobody knows what the new trade environment will look like.
But the real focus is likely to be on credit demand among both Wall Street and Main Street borrowers, along with expected credit loss provisions. This will give us the clearest view on the state of play in the US.
In Magic Markets Premium this week, our subscribers got to enjoy our work on H&M. Although H&M has firmly played second fiddle to Zara owner Inditex, the valuation gap has opened up even more recently. Is this an opportunity to trade that gap, or are there reasons to justify it staying wide open? The entire research library in Magic Markets Premium is available for just R99/month. |
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| Magic Markets: Hybrid Capital - Best of Both Worlds (with Westbrooke) |
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| | | Westbrooke’s approach makes use of various funding mechanisms, with hybrid capital as a particular favourite. This aims for debt-like risk and equity-like returns, while providing capital for lower- to mid-market deals in markets like the UK.
Dino Zuccollo, Head of Investor Solutions at Westbrooke Alternative Asset Management, joined us on this episode to update us on the alternative asset market, recent deal trends across markets and the exciting news of the R3.8 billion WDO UK Fund II, raised by Westbrooke in partnership with RMB. Find it here>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and macro update |
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| US and European futures along with Asian shares are up this morning, while trade discussions remain in focus ahead of crucial US inflation data and bank earnings reports due this week.
Trump expressed willingness to negotiate tariffs despite his recent threat to impose 30% duties on the European Union and Mexico starting August 1. Japan is reportedly seeking high-level trade talks with the US this Friday. Market response to tariff worries has been relatively calm, putting more emphasis on this week's US earnings reports for market direction.
China's economy showed more resilience than expected in Q2 despite US tariffs. Nvidia's CEO is set to visit China Wednesday amid its plan to restart chip sales there. The US earnings season kicks off today with major banks reporting. Investors also await June's US consumer price index for inflation signals.
The dollar index dipped slightly but stayed near three-week highs. Gold rose modestly on dollar weakness. Crude oil prices declined as Trump announced new weapon shipments to Ukraine and threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Russia agrees to a ceasefire within 50 days.
This update is provided by Shaun Murison. Connect with him on LinkedIn here.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R17.82/$ | US 10yr 4.42% | Gold $3,362/oz | Platinum $1,419/oz | Brent Crude $66.66 |
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