What’s going on here?

Turns out even American prices needed a pause from the stress this week: US inflation fell to its lowest level since September.

What does this mean?

US inflation slowed down for the second month in a row, landing at 2.4% in March versus the 2.6% predicted. Now, it’s true: that’s largely thanks to a decline in volatile energy prices. But even when you strip them out (along with changeable food prices), the resulting “core inflation” was still a lower-than-expected 2.8%. That’s the smallest increase since March 2021.

Why should I care?

For markets: Keep your eyes focused forward.

Just remember, tariffs are expected to increase costs for everyday Americans. And if shoppers pull back as a result, that would strap ankle weights onto the US economy. Levies might have been paused for non-retaliating countries, but major trade partners like China are still facing eye-watering fees. Inflation-wise, it may take a few months for the full effects to show in the figures, especially as shoppers seem to have been stockpiling in anticipation. In other words, don’t break out the champagne just yet – not least because the French import could soon be even pricier.

The bigger picture: What goes up… could go anywhere, really.

Investors pushed the Nasdaq index up 12% after the US president paused tariffs – the biggest uptick since 2001. But tread carefully: that trend might not stick. It’s likely that investors just wanted to make quick adjustments, canceling out their worst-case forecast of sweeping, unrelenting tariffs with little room for compromise. And don’t forget, tariffs are only on pause, with negotiations yet to lead to any significant breakthroughs. You’ll still want to prepare for a range of outcomes, then, and a well-diversified portfolio – spread across different countries, sectors, and assets – is your best way to do that.

What’s going on here?

TSMC made a higher-than-expected $25 billion in revenue last quarter – 42% more than the same time last year – after clients prepared their very high-tech doomsday bunkers.

What does this mean?

Clients of the world’s biggest contract chipmaker have had little reason to pare down their spending on AI semiconductors. Quite the opposite: many sent over emergency order forms, desperate to hoard crucial chips before tariffs had the chance to stall supply chains and increase costs. That trend might continue this quarter, too, since levies have only been paused for three months. Investors gave TSMC a pat on the back, sending its stock 10% higher on Thursday.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Intel wants intel.

Investors aren’t alone in the TSMC fan club: according to reports, Intel is close to shaking hands with the firm on a joint venture. The deal would see TSMC run some of Intel’s chip factories in exchange for a 20% stake in the legacy tech firm. That’s a relatively small price to pay: Intel has hobbled behind the industry’s younger and more nimble companies, especially when it comes to AI. So for Intel, this partnership could fill a crucial knowledge gap – and for TSMC, it’d be a vote of confidence.

The bigger picture: One threat’s paused, but another’s playing out.

All this tariff talk has overshadowed a sinister trend that seems to be unfolding. Wealthy Americans have seen their portfolios, houses, and savings pick up over the last few years – and they’ve been spending those earnings... with gusto. The richest 10% of the US now make up 50% of consumer spending – the biggest contributor to the economy. Now, though, they may need to start tightening their purse strings. And it’s not just designer wares and fancy dinners on the line, but also high-end tech. So you’re not the only one who should worry about the “wealth effect”: TSMC might need to watch out, too.