| Good morning Voornaam, Happy Friday! Well done for making it to the end of the week.
There are a few good news stories this morning to add to the weekend vibe. CA Sales sits at the top of the pile, with a really strong performance in 2024. I particularly enjoy the bolt-on acquisition strategy that the company follows. As always, I've written independently about the results in Ghost Bites. The company values the Ghost Mail audience and has chosen to place its results separately on the platform, along with some helpful graphics and the investor presentation deck. Find it here>>>
In the property sector, we saw a few interesting updates. Fairvest expects to hit the upper end of guidance for the distribution on its B shares, so that's good news. At Heriot REIT, there's been exceptionally good growth in the past year. To add to this, Sirius Real Estate announced an acquisition and a disposal that gives you great insight into how they do business.
Capital Appreciation also has a positive story to tell, with the payments division continuing to grow strongly and the software division no longer in the red. Datatec also moved in the right direction, albeit by single digits.
Finally, Ascendis has now set a base for its new chapter as an investment entity. From here onwards, NAV per share will be the metric of focus.
As always, these details and the Nibbles are available in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
There's a great new Ghost Stories episode dealing with the budget speech. Specifically, I spoke to Tertius Troost of Forvis Mazars in South Africa about whether VAT really is anti-poor and how bracket creep affects middle-class South Africans. Having deliberately waited for the dust to settle before doing this podcast, it's a great way to zoom in on the most important concepts. Get it here>>>
For those who enjoy a deeper dive, Homechoice International was recently on Unlock the Stock. This is a retail business with an impressive fintech overlay. In fact, I've added it to my portfolio as a rather interesting growth play in South Africa, albeit one that desperately needs more liquidity on the shareholder register. Watch the management presentation and Q&A here>>>
The latest Magic Markets episode continues our theme of looking beyond the US to show you what else is out there. This week, we talked about the macroeconomic outlook for African currencies and the South African companies that would benefit if things went well. We also discussed the elements of offshore acquisitions that can make them successes or failures. Get it here>>>
Finally, as is the norm on a Friday, DealMakers is here with great weekly summaries of local M&A and local corporate finance deals. There are also pieces on the media challenges around M&A transactions (a topic close to my heart for obvious reasons) and the use of warranty and indemnity insurance in transactions.
Have a great Friday - we will see you on Sunday for Ghost Mail Weekender! |
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| SATRIX: Don't waste the TFSA opportunity |
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| | | Tax-free savings accounts (TFSA) are one of the most building blocks in any equity portfolio. The advantage of compounding tax-free returns over a long period is incredibly powerful and can really turbocharge a long-term wealth creation journey.
To discuss the importance of TFSA investments and the opportunities available to investors in the ETF universe, familiar voice Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix returned to the Ghost Stories podcast.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST STORIES: VAT strategies, bracket creep and what it means for South Africans |
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| | | With the dust having settled on the Budget Speech and the proposals that parliament will need to vote on, Tertius Troost of Forvis Mazars in South Africa joined me to reflect on the key drivers behind the headlines.
VAT has been the focus area, but is it true that a VAT increase is anti-poor? And is it correct to rebut the “South Africa has a small taxpayer base” argument by pointing out that everyone pays VAT? What is bracket creep and how does it affect middle-class South Africans?
These questions and more are answered in this podcast>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Q1 winners on the JSE |
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| In considering how the first few months of the year have played out, some surprising winners have emerged. The performance in gold is simply a case of the sector carrying on where it left off in 2024, but what about platinum? And where did that telecoms rally come from? Also, have retail stocks continued their slide since the previous episode of Ghost Wrap that focused on that issue?
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | CA Sales locked in another excellent year. Datatec, Fairvest and especially Heriot are all growing. Sirius Real Estate announced more deals. Capital Appreciation has stemmed the software bleeding. Ascendis is now an investment entity. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - Homechoice International |
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| In the 49th edition of Unlock the Stock, Homechoice International made its debut on the platform to talk about the interesting mix of retail and fintech businesses in the group. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Temu Teslas no more: how China won the EV race |
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| | | In case you've been living under a rock, the Chinese vehicle onslaught is causing massive disruption in the automotive sector. It's even more severe in the EV world, something we aren't exposed to in South Africa. Dominique Olivier explains how China did it. Read it here>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Global economy - recession or recovery? |
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| | | Recession risks, inflation pressures, and trade tensions - how is the global economy shaping up in 2025? Investec’s Chief Economists, Phil Shaw (UK) and Annabel Bishop (SA), take stock of the latest trends in No Ordinary Wednesday. From global growth forecasts to the economic outlook for Europe and South Africa, they break down what lies ahead in this podcast>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Irritatingly for me, Lululemon dropped over 10% in after-hours trading. I bought the company when it went through a rough patch in recent months, as this is a stock that I've wanted to own - it was always just trading too hot to justify an entry. Buying into a growth stock under pressure requires a stomach for volatility, as evidenced by this 10% decrease. It also requires you to keep some cash in reserve in case you need to keep buying into weakness.
The issue wasn't in the latest quarterly performance, as Lululemon beat expectations. The problem was 2025 guidance that disappointed the market. The US business is under pressure and of course issues like tariffs certainly aren't helping. I think we are in for a very choppy year in US consumer businesses.
To show you how significant the disruption really is, we have covered BMW in Magic Markets Premium this week. Our report will be released to our subscribers tonight. We deliberately chose one of the better European companies, just to demonstrate the point. |
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| Magic Markets: The art of investing in art |
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| | | Magic Markets: Tristanne Farrell isn’t shy to admit it: she’s mildly obsessed with art. As a Senior Wealth Manager at Investec Wealth & Investment International, her day job is to help clients build diversified, successful portfolios. Thankfully, with art as one of the more interesting (and certainly most visually stimulating) alternative assets out there, she gets to enjoy some overlap between her passion and her career, including hosting the Art in Focus podcast series.
She joined us to talk about art as an investment, bringing a mix of genuine passion and solid insights into this asset class. To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and IG Markets macro update |
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| Major US stock indexes closed in negative territory yesterday and futures are slightly softer this morning, continuing the losses induced since President Donald Trump's unexpected announcement of 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks, set to take effect next week.
The announcement has erased nearly $20 billion from the market value of Japan's top three automakers - Toyota, Honda, and Nissan.
Chinese and Hong Kong indices are trading lower today as investor sentiment deteriorates amid concerns that new US tariffs could undermine the global economy.
The negative impact extends to Europe, where futures indicate markets will open lower, with the region's automobile and parts index declining to its lowest level since early December and heading for a sixth straight week of losses.
The rand is trading more or less flat against the dollar. The JSE All-Share Index is expected to open slightly lower this morning in line with its global peers.
Meanwhile, gold prices have climbed to another record high today as fears of a global trade war push investors toward the safe-haven asset.
Oil prices remain near one-month highs and are on track for their third consecutive weekly gain, bolstered by the tightening global supply outlook resulting from US tariffs against countries buying oil and gas from Venezuela and additional restrictions on Iranian oil trade.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.24/$ | US 10yr 4.33% | Gold $3,084/oz | Platinum $1,007/oz | Brent Crude $73.20
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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