Another "Nice" Day For Rates, But Tomorrow is The Real Story

We've been waiting for tomorrow since April 10th. That's the last time the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. This is one of the two official consumer-focused inflation indices in the U.S. and it comes out 2 weeks before the also important PCE price index. With inflation being the top concern for interest rates these days, that makes CPI the most important scheduled economic report when it comes to rate volatility and momentum. People may know that "inflation is high" or that the price of various things is higher today than it was at some point in the past. Indeed, it may be very easy--even popular--to lament the higher price of things. But that has nothing to do with predicting how tomorrow will go. Forecasts are already clear in their expectations for a 0.3% increase in core prices, month over month. The difference between a result of 0.2 or 0.4 is surprisingly massive when it comes to the world of interest rates. A 0.1 or 0.5 result could easily result in the largest rate jump/drop in months. As for today, the Producer Price Index (PPI) offered an appetizer ahead of tomorrow's main course. Results were mixed, depending on whom you ask, but PPI doesn't tend to elicit much of a response on average anyway. In today's case, initial weakness (aka "higher rates") gave way to modest strength ("lower rates") and the average mortgage lender was able to offer just slightly lower rates compared to yesterday. This technically results in another 1-month low, but yet again, only by the smallest of margins

May 14, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Another "Nice" Day For Rates, But Tomorrow is The Real Story We've been waiting for tomorrow since April 10th. That's the last time the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. This is one of the two official consumer-focused inflation indices in the U.S. and it comes out 2 weeks before the also im... (read more) MBS Commentary Big Miss in PPI Making For an Interesting Morning The Producer Price Index (PPI) isn't in the same league as CPI when it comes to market movement potential, but as seen again this morning, it's no slouch. Bonds responded immediately and somewhat forcefully to the much higher monthly core numbe... (read more) Rob Chrisman Servicing, LOS, Risk Management, Warehouse Tools; Webinars, Training, and Events Attendees are gearing up for the upcoming MBA Secondary Conference in Manhattan. Basketball fans know it as the home of Madison Square Garden and are hoping for the Knicks to play the Celtics during the conference. Manhattan is also the home of Centr... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.11% -0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.11% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.61% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.58% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.37% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.29% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.59% -0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 5/14 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.61% -0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.09% -0.13 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.38% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/9 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.24% +0.11 0.66 15 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.11 0.64 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.45% +0.05 0.56 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/24 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 100.35 +0.20 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 100.35 +0.20 UMBS 6.5 101.71 +0.13 GNMA 6.0 101.20 +0.17 GNMA 6.5 101.70 +0.07 Pricing as of: 5/14 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4463 -0.0427 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.821 -0.046 5 YR Treasury 4.461 -0.039 7 YR Treasury 4.449 -0.046 10 YR Treasury 4.446 -0.043 30 YR Treasury 4.593 -0.042 Pricing as of: 5/14 5:31PM EST Latest Video Fed chair Powell: Confidence in inflation moving back down not as high as i... Enact CEO Rohit Gupta talks mortgage insurance as homebuyers struggle with ... Wells Fargo's Sarah House: Next phase of the inflation fight will be harder... Wholesale prices jumped more than expected in April Around the Web CNBC Powell says inflation has been higher than thought and expects rates to hold steady CNBC Here's everything to expect from Wednesday's key report on inflation Calculated Risk Blog Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2024 CNBC Education Dept. announces highest federal student loan interest rate in more than a decade forexlive Signs are mounting that OPEC could break down CNBC Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in April, more than expected Calculated Risk Blog NY Fed Q1 Report: Household Debt and Delinquency Rates Increased Calculated Risk Blog CPI Previews CNBC Inflation outlook rises, fueled by expected increases for housing costs, New York Fed survey shows Eye on Housing Single-Family Permits Up in March 2024 Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April CNBC Treasury yields dip as investors await key inflation data Calculated Risk Blog Heavy Truck Sales Increased in April

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