| | | | Tuesday, April 23, 2024 | | The Orioles collection of young hitting talent is the envy of baseball right now. | | And now they're calling up yet another top-50 hitter from their system, this time outfielder Heston Kjerstad, who has been arguably the best hitter in the minors so far this season. Kjerstad is joining the team with Austin Hays going on the IL with calf tightness after hitting .349/.431/.744 in with 10 homers in 21 games for that absurdly stacked Norfolk team. The problem is … where is he supposed to play? | | The Orioles already didn't have enough room for Colton Cowser to play everyday until he forced their hand with a hot start to the season. Even with Hays on the IL, is there really room for Kjerstad? | | Well, isn't Cowser proof that that is kind of a silly question? The Orioles had too many bats for too few roster spots at the start of the season, but they found room for Cowser when he forced their hands with his play. There's no guarantee Kjerstad will do the same, but we've already seen that they are willing to make room for a top prospect when he earns it. And, in looking at the Orioles lineup Monday without Kjerstad, there might already be room for him – the Orioles were starting Ramon Urias at first base and Anthony Santander at right field with Adley Rutschman getting a day off at DH. When Rutschman slides back to catcher, Santander can go to DH, and boom, Kjerstad is your right fielder. | | | | Sure, that combination depends on both Hays and Ryan Mountcastle (knee) being sidelined. But the point is, as we saw with Cowser, the Orioles are willing to make room for a hot bat if they need to. Kjerstad was decent in a brief stint in the majors last season, hitting .233/.281/.467 in 32 plate appearances, albeit with 10 strikeouts, an untenable pace. But he's also overcome a ton since being the No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft, including a bout with myocarditis that kept him off the field until 2022. All he's done since is hit, and given the time missed, that .917 OPS in the minors is even more impressive than you think. | | Can Kjerstad pull a Cowser and mash his way into the Orioles everyday lineup and to Fantasy relevance? That's a tall task. But we've already seen it with this team, and I'm willing to add Kjerstad in all leagues just in case he pulls it off. | | In the rest of today's newsletter, we've got even more waiver-wire targets, plus everything else you need to know about from Monday's action around MLB. | | | | Monday's top waiver targets | | | | Jason Adam, RP, Rays (22%) – Pete Fairbanks was placed on the IL with a nerve-related issue, and at this point it seems pretty much impossible to guess at a timetable for his return. Jason Adam got 10 of the 12 Rays saves when Fairbanks was on the IL last season and seems like a safe bet to be the primary closer with Fairbanks out. He's 22% rostered and is a high-priority waiver-wire add, despite a suspiciously low strikeout rate in the early going. | | Albert Suarez, SP, Orioles (7%) – Backed by that powerful offense, any halfway decent pitcher is going to have a pretty good chance of winning games for the Orioles. And, in that home park, with that incredibly deep left field fence, any halfway decent pitcher is going to have a pretty good chance of keeping runs off the board while pitching for the Orioles. And, with no runs allowed through his first two starts of the season, it sure looks like Suarez might be at least a halfway decent pitcher right now. Skepticism is warranted for the 33-year-old who hadn't pitched in the majors since 2017 before last week, but we just watched Dean Kremer win 13 games and sport a useful 4.12 ERA despite a 4.51 FIP last season for the Orioles, and Suarez can do at least that. | | Chris Paddack, SP, Twins (36%) – I think this one was probably more about how dreadful the White Sox lineup was, but anytime a widely available pitcher strikes out 10 in seven shutout innings, we're going to take notice. Paddack had an 8.36 ERA in three starts prior to Monday's, and it's not like his velocity was up or he was getting unusually good results on little-used secondary pitches, or anything; he had two whiffs and gave up several hard-hit balls on 20 curveballs and sliders in this one. Paddack definitely isn't a must-add pitcher, but it was nice to see signs of life from a guy who once was a must-roster pitcher. | | Daulton Varsho, OF, Blue Jays (71%) – It's pretty hard to buy into Varsho too much, given the massive gap between his actual production and his expected stats – he had a .363 wOBA entering Monday, despite just a .286 expected wOBA. Still, he's red-hot right now, with four homers in his past five games and six in 10, and given his stolen base potential, you need to make sure he's rostered in all category-based formats, at least. | | JP Sears, SP, Athletics (25%) – Sears now has his ERA down to 3.38 with a 1.05 WHIP through his first five starts, including three straight with one or zero runs allowed. I don't really see too much reason to buy in overall, though I will point out that Sears is a different pitcher than he has been in the past, and it's possible it took him a few starts to figure out how to thrive. He's throwing his sweeper more than any other pitch, and he got six whiffs with it Monday against the Yankees , after getting a pretty dreadful 13.3% whiff rate through his first four starts. If he's going to throw the pitch that often, it needs to be a weapon for him, and Monday was the first time it looked like one. | | Bryce Elder, SP, Braves (30%) – Elder made an All-Star game last season and I never really believed in him, so I'm not rushing out to go add him because he had a good start against a dreadful Marlins offense. His slider remains one of the only ways he can go out of the strike zone to get whiffs, which means he really needs to rely on getting outs on balls in play to succeed. The Marlins didn't hurt him in this one, but he did allow a 90.9 mph average exit velocity with 10 hard-hit balls, so he probably won't be able to get away with something similar against a more formidable offense. I'm pretty lukewarm about the prospect of adding Elder. | | Mark Canha, OF, Tigers (25%) – Canha probably deserves more love from us in the Fantasy world. I've been starting him in a few leagues, and he's off to a pretty solid start, upping his OPS to .875 after he went 3 for 4 with his fourth home run, two RBI, and two runs scored. He's always had terrific plate discipline, and that's serving him well while hitting second primarily for the Tigers, as he's on pace for 80-plus runs and RBI each. | | Travis d'Arnaud , C, Braves (55%) – I'm inclined to write it off as a random hot streak for a veteran, but d'Arnaud is making it awfully hard to dismiss him right now. He has five homers in his past four games after going 2 for 4 with a homer Monday against the Marlins, and he's doing it while sporting absolutely massive underlying numbers: 92.2 mph average exit velocity, 15% barrel rate, a .288 expected batting average and .617 expected slugging percentage. If you're unhappy with what you're getting from the catcher position and d'Arnaud is available, it's worth adding him, even if I don't necessarily expect him to remain a top-12 option moving forward. | | | | News and Notes | | Bryce Harper and Manny Machado were both placed on the paternity list. They'll miss between one and three games. | | Ozzie Albies has begun swinging a bat and could return when first eligible Friday. That's a pretty surprising turn of events after Albies was placed on the IL with a fractured toe last week. Let's hope it doesn't linger and hold him back. | | Paul Sewald will start a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tuesday. He started the season on the IL with a Grade 2 left oblique strain, and could be back within the next two weeks if all goes well. | | Yariel Rodriguez remains on a restricted workload this season and will likely shift to a multi-inning relief role once Alek Manoah is deemed ready to join the rotation. That's frustrating, but not exactly surprising, as Rodriguez didn't pitch at all last season has mostly worked as a reliever in recent seasons in Japan. He's still worth adding, but know that he isn't a long-term option as a starter. | | Frankie Montas was placed on the IL with a bruised forearm. Nick Martinez will start Thursday against the Phillies. | | Shane Baz will soon throw two innings in an extended spring training game as he continues to ramp up in his return from Tommy John surgery. The Rays opted to start his season late to preserve his innings, but I'm hoping he'll be ready by sometime in June. | | Braxton Garrett threw a bullpen session Sunday. He was briefly shut down due to a bout with dead arm, but it looks like that was just a bump in the road and he could be back in the rotation in a few weeks. | | Jake Burger will be evaluated soon to determine whether he can begin hitting. He's on the IL with a left intercostal strain. | | Wade Miley was placed on the IL with left elbow inflammation. | | Louie Varland was optioned to Triple-A on Monday. It sounds like Simeon Woods-Richardson could take his spot in the Twins rotation, and while he had some prospect hype at one point, I see little reason to be excited for Fantasy until he gives us reason to be. | | Jonathan Aranda is expected to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A soon. He had the pins removed from his surgically repaired finger a week ago and could be a big part of the Rays offense starting in May. | | Monday's standouts | | Dylan Cease, Padres @COL – 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – So, I guess Dylan Cease throws a cutter now? I know Nick Pollack of PitcherList.com has been begging for Cease to throw a cutter for years to give him another pitch he can throw for strikes, and Cease broke it out here, throwing it seven times Monday. He only got two strikes with it, so I don't know if we can say it's going to be a huge part of the plan moving forward, but it's an interesting wrinkle from a pitcher who often tantalizes and frustrates in equal measure. He's been pretty tremendous so far this season, and while there will come a time when he has to pay for the walks and hard contact he typically allows, I think you should feel pretty good about buying the dip on Cease after last season. | | Jared Jones, Pirates vs. MIL: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – You just don't see major-league hitters look this bad very often. I've written a ton about Jones so far this season, and the comp I've made several times is to Spencer Strider, and I stand by it. He may not throw much more than 160 or so innings, but I see no reason to think Jones will be anything less than a top-20 pitcher on a per-inning basis moving forward. | | Carlos Rodon , Yankees vs. OAK: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I wanted to buy into a Rodon bounceback season, but his 2.70 ERA looks like a total mirage to me. Rodon seemed to be intentionally taking something off his fastball in this one, because he was able to dial it up to 96-97 mph when he needed a big out, but the bigger concern remains the utter disappearance of his slider. At his best, Rodon threw his slider around 27-31% of the time, but he threw it just 14 times Monday and got just a single whiff on seven swings; that used to be a 40% whiff rate pitch for him! His FIP is 4.22 right now, and that's not far off what I expect from him moving forward, unfortunately. | | Hunter Greene, Reds vs. PHI: 7 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – It was death by a thousand cuts for Green, who gave up one run in each inning from the second through the fifth in this one. The eye test doesn't look that much different for Greene compared to Jones, but he just doesn't have the ability to make his version of that two-pitch mix work for him in the same way. Maybe it's a command issue, but Greene just doesn't seem to have that ineffable quality that separates guys like Jones and Strider. That being said his 3.28 FIP suggests there is room for Greene to grow. | | Zack Littell, Rays vs. DET: 6 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Littell is going to pepper the strike zone every time out, and sometimes that's going to lead to outings like this when he can't keep the ball in the yard. Still, five starts into the season, his 3.33 ERA is backed up by a 3.06 FIP, so I still have a decent amount of faith that he's going to remain useful moving forward. Even if he might add a half-run to that ERA in the long run. | | Ranger Suarez, Phillies @CIN: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – We've seen a very successful version of Suarez before, most recently in 2022, when he went 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA in 29 starts. I don't think he's going to maintain his current sub-1.50 ERA moving forward, and even his 2.60 FIP is probably setting your sights too high. But with his groundball rate back up near 60% and the best walk rate of his career, I do think Suarez could replicate that 2022 success. | | Brady Singer, Royals vs. TOR: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – Singer entered this start with a 1.54 ERA, and I'm extremely unsurprised that that mark jumped by more than a run in one outing. That ERA will be over 4.00 before long. | | Mason Miller, RP, Athletics – Miller is the best show in baseball right now. He absolutely mowed down the top of the Yankees lineup, setting Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto, and Aaron Judge down in order on strikes, and he now has five saves before the end of April. He looks like one of the best relievers in baseball, and while the A's aren't a great team, they did have 29 saves last season as a team from a crew significantly worse than Miller. If he stays healthy, I think he gets to 30 and might be a top-five closer in Fantasy – but that's a big if, seeing as Miller missed time last year with an elbow injury. | | Salvador Perez, C, Royals – Perez is off to an absurd start, hitting .341/.400/.598 after going 2 for 4 with a double Monday. And it might not be a fluke, with underlying numbers that back up every bit of his performance to date. Perez was an elite power hitter in 2020 and 2021, and while he took a big step backward the past two seasons, he was still a standout for a catcher in quality of contact and power. He might have just been underrated coming into the season, as it turns out. | | George Springer, OF, Blue Jays – I usually give slow-starting veterans the benefit of the doubt, but it's harder to go with 34-year-olds who were already showing signs of decline before this season. Springer has the worst quality-of-contact metrics of his career for the third season in a row now, and while his plate discipline remains terrific, I'm not sure the bat is necessarily going to bounce back much at this point. | | Starling Marte, OF, Mets – Of course, sometimes even guys in their mid-30s bounce back. Marte was largely left for dead after hitting just .248/.301/.324 last season, but he's healthy and off to an incredible start, hitting .286/.330/.451 with four homers; he had just five in 86 games last season. He added a steal Monday, his sixth of the season, and suddenly is on pace for a 25-homer, 44-steal season. He remains a significant injury risk, but Marte sure looks like a must-start option as long as he's on the field at this point. | | | | | | | | The PGA Tour | | The First Cut | 80 teams are set to tee off this weekend at TPC Louisiana! The PGA Tour continues with the Zurich Classic of New Orleans this Saturday and Sunday at 3 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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