Anglo really heats up

Good morning Voornaam,

Fresh out the oven:

Ghost Bites: Anglo American hates the BHP offer because it requires a demerger, yet they are proposing their own version of a demerger now. MTN released a very tough set of numbers. There's property news from Accelerate, Delta, Dipula, Equites and Octodec, as well as an operational update from Santam that also references property - but in a different way. South32 and Transaction Capital round out a very busy day of news. All this is in Ghost Bites>>>

​Ghost Wrap: You need barely four minutes to get up to speed on KAL Group, AB InBev, Redefine, RFG Holdings and Calgro M3, brought to you by Mazars. Listen to it here>>>

Southern African bonds: In a new article, Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix comments on the Fed approach and what this means for Southern African bond opportunities. Read it here>>>

Calgro M3 is next up on Unlock the Stock. Scheduled for 23rd May, you can register for free here>>>

In case you missed it:

Chasing (returns from) the Sun: Grovest's Tivon Loubser joined me on a Ghost Stories podcast to talk about the 12BA allowances and how the government is giving returns from solar a serious boost for investors and you can listen to it here (full transcript included)>>>

Electrifying stocks: Craig Antonie of AnBro joined us on Magic Markets to talk about the electrification theme and related global stocks. Thematic investing is powerful. Enjoy it here (full transcript included)>>>

​​Costa plenty - the hefty price of human error: This brand new piece by Dominique Olivier makes a strong case for self-driving vehicles, with practically every human flaw on full display in the Costa Concordia disaster. Read it here>>

Unlock the Stock: The recording of the recent presentation by Astoria Investments is available at this link>>>

LISTEN: Chasing Returns from the Sun

Local company news:

Anglo American has been forced to move a whole lot faster in its value unlock plans, with BHP all over the thing and perhaps others waiting in the wings. Having told the market that BHP's requirement for the demerger of Anglo American Platinum and Kumba Iron Ore is an unattractive approach to implement, Anglo's grand plan is to do something even harder that includes a potential disposal of De Beers, which is a private company. Suddenly, making the argument to shareholders not to accept an offer because of a required demerger just got a whole lot harder.
Linked to this, BHP presented at a mining conference and of course included a slide or two on Anglo American. South32 presented at the same conference, so there's even more good stuff for the mining enthusiasts.
Apart from the very juicy M&A drama, we also saw several property updates come through. Accelerate Property Fund is raising equity, Delta Property Fund gave the market a positive surprise, Dipula Income Fund saw its distribution dip, Equites Property Fund reported a significant drop in distributable income because of the settlement of swaps and Octodec maintained its distribution despite a decrease in earnings.
Moving on, MTN released a tough set of numbers, yet it seemed like the market was shocked by this. If you had been following the news on MTN's subsidiaries in Africa, it shouldn't have come as a surprise.
To add to a busy day, Santam released an operational update and Transaction Capital put out a trading statement that I think gives clues that they will move to investment holding company accounting practices.
Phew. Time to breathe. I spent many hours working through this on SENS so that you don't have to. Get the details in Ghost Bites at this link>>>

LISTEN: Investing in Private Credit
(Reginald Labuschagne, Sanlam Private Wealth |
Harris Gorre, Grovepoint Investment Management)

READ AND LISTEN: The Global Accelerator

READ: Costa plenty - the hefty price of human error
(by Dominique Olivier)

International business news:

In case you wondered whether the US market was efficient, here's something to prove once and for all that it isn't. If you're active on FinTwit or Reddit and you followed the "Roaring Kitty" drama around GameStop during the pandemic, then you'll understand a bit about meme stocks and how they tend to destroy short sellers through a wave of retail investors piling into the stock.
This week, Roaring Kitty's account on X (Twitter) suddenly became active again, posting a whole bunch of memes and weird videos. The GameStop share price went mad, as did fellow meme stock AMC. Rather conveniently, this was as AMC was wrapping up an issuance of new shares to the market for $250 million. Although the majority of stock was sold prior to the jump, it seems that they got some through at the much higher share price. I really wouldn't be surprised to see them try tap the market for more at these prices.
And there you were thinking that only small caps on the JSE do crazy things!
This week, we are covering another consumer favourite in Magic Markets Premium: Coca-Cola. If you're curious why this has been a staple of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio, then subscribe to the platform here.

LISTEN: Cashing in on clean

Macroeconomic Update

After the release of higher-than-expected PPI data in the US yesterday, markets are awaiting today's CPI number. Expectations are for 3.4%, a slight moderation from March's print of 3.5%.
Fed Chair Powell commented last night that inflation is falling at a slower pace than anticipated, which certainly talks to the "higher for longer" narrative. Although one would assume that this would put pressure on emerging markets, the recent rally in the rand (and peers) reflects the market's belief that at least there won't be any further hikes.
Gold is holding steady, the PGMs are building on yesterday's gains and Brent Crude is below $83 based on the extent of US inventories.
Key indicators: USD/ZAR R18.37; US 10-year 4.44%; Gold $2,356; Platinum ZAR R19,376; Brent Crude $82.92
This macroeconomic update is based on TreasuryONE's morning update.