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| Stated results are from hypothetical options applied to real published trade alerts. From 4/17/24 - 10/23/24 the result was a 73% win rate on 634 trade signals on the underlying stock. Performance is not indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk and never risk more than you can afford to lose. By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from ProsperityPub and its partners (privacy policy) |
| High Stakes for Trump’s Second Term as Market Watches Closely |
| Hi Traders, A new era has dawned in Washington, with Donald Trump sworn in on Monday as the 47th president of the United States for a second term. Investors are now watching closely to see how U.S. stocks perform in the critical early phase of this administration. Historically, the first 100 days of a presidential term have tended to bring gains. Since 1929, the S&P 500 has averaged a 3.8% return in that span, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has seen a 4% advance. Both indexes finished higher 58.3% of the time over those periods, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has logged a modest 0.7% decline in comparable 100-day windows dating to 1973. Trump is once again in the unique position of having lost one presidential race before reclaiming the White House, making him the only president other than Grover Cleveland to serve nonconsecutive terms. During his first 100 days in office back in 2017, the S&P 500 climbed 5.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 6.1%, reflecting Wall Street’s optimism about his agenda at the time. There is no guarantee, however, that stocks will follow the same script this time. Since Trump’s victory in the 2024 election, investors have been focused on how his proposed policies on tariffs, crypto, energy, and immigration might bolster the nation’s economic outlook. Yet meaningful changes in the U.S. economy can take time to materialize, given its size and complexity. A “supertanker” cannot alter its course quickly, and sweeping policy shifts need to be backed by tangible data to keep bullish market sentiment intact. The first 100 days of Trump’s second term are expected to be pivotal for demonstrating tangible, measurable progress on policy initiatives. Signs of improving business sentiment, increased capital investment, and healthier leading economic indicators would help confirm high expectations. If these improvements do not emerge by spring 2025, market valuations—which have recently been above historical averages—could face a significant reset. For now, optimism persists about what the new administration might achieve in its early months. But the clock is ticking, and many will be watching whether Trump’s policies can deliver demonstrable results before the spring. The stakes are high, and the market’s next chapter may hinge on whether the White House can translate campaign promises into real economic momentum. - The Team at Altos Trading In the next article, the stock market may be on the brink of a bubble, yet widespread recency bias risks leaving investors unprepared for a potential burst. |
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Is the Stock Market Ignoring the Bubble Warning Signs? |
| The risk of a stock market bubble forming and eventually bursting has grown significantly—yet this danger seems underestimated by those who should be most alert to it. At the ongoing World Economic Forum in Davos, where economic and geopolitical elites gather to assess global risks, the issue of an asset bubble burst is ranked surprisingly low on their agenda. This year's Global Risks Report places the likelihood of an asset bubble bursting at 25th on the list of significant concerns, reflecting a troubling blind spot. This oversight highlights a common behavioural flaw: recency bias, a tendency to give greater weight to recent events than historical patterns. For the elite attendees at Davos, as for many others, this bias leads to underestimating risks that lack recent precedent. The global financial crisis of 2008-09 is a stark example. In January 2009, when the world was still reeling from asset price collapses, the risk of another bubble was front and centre in the World Economic Forum’s assessment. Today, however, despite higher valuations and stretched indicators, such risks are ranked far lower. Historical context offers a sobering perspective. Ten widely regarded valuation indicators, which have consistently provided reliable long-term forecasts of inflation-adjusted returns, were near their most bullish levels in 2009. By contrast, these same indicators are now at or near their most bearish extremes. Despite these alarming signals, current discourse among global leaders appears to downplay the possibility of a bubble. It is critical for investors to avoid falling into the trap of thinking “this time is different.” Instead, strategies should be grounded in objective, long-term data, recognising that historical events—no matter how distant—can repeat. The assumption should always be that what has occurred in the past is just as likely to happen again, regardless of how the present feels. As 2025 unfolds, the potential for an asset bubble burst demands attention. While no forecast is a certainty, the risks are too significant to ignore. Incorporating these concerns into your portfolio strategy could prove essential in navigating the uncertainties ahead. A proactive, historically informed approach may well be the key to avoiding painful missteps in the months to come. |
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| Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street
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