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Get alts in your retirement fund |
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 | *past 24-hour performance |
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📰 Market Headlines |
All the fancy pants are at Davos this week, and the ECB crew is talking rate cuts. Chinese Premier Li Qiang, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy all speak today. Follow the action live. December retail sales come out tomorrow, and I expect the numbers to be big. The “experts” are forecasting a 0.2% rise compared to November against 0.3% for the month prior. Goldman, MS, and PNC report earnings today, while several regional banks report later in the week. Keep an eye on their exposure to commercial real estate. Whispers are growing louder that the US investor accreditation system is garbage and needs an overhaul. Donald Trump won the Iowa caucus. Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump. It’s very cold in America [ed note: I’m wearing flip-flops in Spain today]. Succession and The Bear cleaned up at last night’s Emmys.
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🕶️ Market Vibes |
🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures |
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Despite a hot CPI print, traders still forecast a 66% chance of a rate cut in March. Kalshi is less optimistic at 40%. |
I think there’s no chance unless CPI magically falls off a cliff next month, which is unlikely. |
I’m going to put $50 on the No side of the March rate cut market on Kalshi. I’ll probably also load up on 0, 1, 2, and 3 rate cuts for 2024 via Kalshi. |
[If you want to do the same, remember you get $25 free if you use the links above] |
Finally, I’m working with Benedict to build a derivatives strategy to short bonds. In the meantime, I’ll load up on the triple inverse 7-10-year bond ETF over at public.com. |
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😱 Fear and Greed Index |
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🧠 What do you think? |
Most of you said you were cutting back on holiday spending this year. Where do you think December retail sales will come in tomorrow? | |
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🎤 What you said last time |
Strong feeling here that the market is wildly wrong about the number of rate cuts. You can back that up on Kalshi with free money if you want. |
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0-2 cuts |
“The market is way too optimistic! JPow has spoken…higher for longer. Sorry to boost your bubble.” |
3-5 cuts |
“Inflation is down but the economy is slowing. Fed won’t wait for 2% inflation target and will cut rates at least 3-4 times in 2024” |
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📈 Trends you need to know | Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends. | |
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Search volume for TMF, the triple bull treasury ETF, has just fallen off a cliff, which is probably a sign it’s time to get short treasuries. |
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📊 Stocks |
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Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks. |
Winners and losers |
Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions |
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Market movers |
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Ideas, trends, and analysis |
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📺 What to Watch Today |
 | Crude Oil Gained During First Houthi Attacks But Can't Seem to Rally | WTI News & Analysis |
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That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let us know. | Cheers, | Wyatt |
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