Welcome back to the VIP Table, nil! Hope youāve brought an appetiteābecause this weekās Market Munchies is smoked, spiced, and simmering with macro mischief. šš„ On the grill? Global growth got shaved like brisket, Meta lit the AGI burners with Alexandr Wang, and Powell blamed tariffs for keeping rate cuts off the menu. Microsoft and OpenAI are cooking with tension, Chinaās chip IPOs are heating fast, and U.S. metal tariffs just doubled without a press release. Oh, and Bitcoin? Still medium-rare at ~$106Kābubbling just beneath breakout. From cyber flambĆ©s to AI fondue, the marketās full of bold bites and slow burns. Forks upāletās dig in. š½ļø - Dan |
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From Raw Data to Roasted Deals: The Weekās Boldest Bites |
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Fresh off the skilletāmacro slow-cooks, AGI ambition, and tariffs smoked to the bone. Global chefs are back in the kitchen, and the menuās getting political. š³ š Global Growth Simmered to 2.9% ā The global potās cooling. Demandās soft, tradeās oversalted. Growthās off the boilāand dessertās delayed. šŗšø U.S. Growth Trimmed to 1.4% ā Inflationās still chewy, tariffs are back, and the Fedās keeping the lid on. Americaās entrĆ©e just got smaller. š§ Eurozone Manufacturing Warms Up ā PMI is almost cooked at 49.5. Still underdone, but no longer frozen. Some heat rising, returning to the stovetop. š Markets Close H1 at Record Highs ā Tech soared through Q2. S&P and Nasdaq plated fresh highs, served with a soft-dollar drizzle. š¤ Meta Builds a Superintelligence Lab ā Zuck folded FAIR and Llama into one big AGI fondue. Alexandr Wangās running the flame. šØš³ Chinaās Chip IPOs Bring the Heat ā Two GPU upstarts prepping a $1.6B listing feast. Beijingās not just eatingātheyāre building the kitchen. š„© U.S. Doubles Tariffs on Metals ā Steel and aluminum now grilled at 50%. Global tradeās feeling the burn. Supply chains, brace yourselves. š¬ OpenAI & Microsoft Tensions Simmer ā Altmanās hinting at kitchen drama. Still cooking togetherāfor nowābut the sauce is splitting. š„ M&S Cyber FlambĆ© ā A hack torched online ops. Recoveryās slow, Ā£300m profit loss is baked in, and Augustās the new opening night. šļø G7 & NATO Cool the Global Grill ā Diplomacy eased the heat. Middle East tensions lowered. Risk assets back on the menuāfor now. |
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The Portfolio Platter: What Hit the Table June 30āJuly 6 |
A curated bite of the weekās boldest tickers. Served sizzling, seasoned with context, and plated for premium portfolios. š½ļø š NVIDIA (NVDA) ā $155.11 (ā1.2%) Reclaimed the #1 spot in global market cap. Blackwell demand is cooking hot, with AI data center upgrades keeping Wall Street in a full basting cycle. š“ Takeaway: Still the prime rib of AIābut price pressure could sear margins if subsidies taper off. š Apple (AAPL) ā $212.29 (ā2.1%) AI momentum lifted shares, with renewed speculation about potential partnerships between OpenAI and Anthropic. Siri may finally get some spice. š“ Takeaway: Back on the stove, but still light on substanceāAI sauce needed to stay relevant on the main menu. š„ Microsoft (MSFT) ā $491.25 (ā0.16%) Azure remains a solid side dish, but headlines around OpenAI CEO tension put a lid on bullishness this week. š“ Takeaway: Still dependable in any macro stewābut needs a fresh recipe to outflavor Nvidiaās flash. š¶ Meta (META) ā $718.21 (ā0.14%) The launch of the superintelligence division stirred serious curiosity. Metaās AI appetite is growing, but the kitchenās getting crowded. š“ Takeaway: Bold prep work happeningājust donāt overstock the pantry without tasting the results. š Tesla (TSLA) ā $305.44 (ā1.6%) A rebound from last weekās charāa bounce cooked by delivery optimism and political tailwinds, but still unevenly grilled. š“ Takeaway: Charred edges with some juicy middle. Keep an eye on regulatory burners and autonomy timing. ā½ ExxonMobil (XOM) ā $109.34 (ā0.09%) Oil nudged higher, but Exxon remained calm on the front line. Geopolitical premiums added flavor, but no breakout sizzle. š“ Takeaway: Classic slow-roastāreliable, but not the dish stealing the show this season. š¢ Chevron (CVX) ā $145.72 (ā0.10%) Efficiency played a key role in the Permian, keeping the broth simmering. Small gains, but margins are ageing well like wine in a cellar. š“ Takeaway: A lean, disciplined chef in a noisy kitchenāperfect for those who like steady portions. šØ Adobe (ADBE) ā $392.10 (ā1.35%) Guidance is impressive, and AI integrations are gradually warming. The creative suiteās finally getting its AI garnish. š“ Takeaway: Warming up againāstill waiting on the big reveal to fire up a full entrĆ©e. š¦ Big Banks (JPM, GS, C) ā Approx. ā1ā2% Passed Fed stress tests with ease. Capital flows returned to the vaults, and investors liked the flavor of financial stability. š“ Takeaway: Comfort food for your portfolioāless spicy, but full of substance. šŖ Bitcoin (BTC) ā ~$106,000 (ā0.8%) Cooled slightly as Senate debates created heat, but ETF inflows stayed robust. Resistance at $111K still broiling. š“ Takeaway: Still the star of the digital buffetābut mind the spice levels. Volatility is baked into the crust. |
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MAIN COURSE: The Macro CauldronāStill Bubbling, Not Boiling |
The global pot didnāt boilābut the lid shook. Growth was shaved, tariffs got a double dose of spice, and AGI chefs rewrote the playbook. Itās not quite a crisis kitchen, but itās not a comfort meal either. š Global Growth Simmered to 2.9% The World Bank and the OECD have revised their global growth projections downward, citing high interest rates, weaker trade flows, and geopolitical tensions. The previous hope of a soft landing is starting to look more like a long, slow simmer. š„ Serving Note: Time to go light on cyclicalsāmomentumās soft, and the global kitchenās still under reconstruction. šŗšø U.S. Growth Trimmed to 1.4% The U.S. economy is cooling faster than expected. Weaker housing, softer consumer spending, and trade headwindsāespecially those stemming from tariff hikesāhave further eroded the growth outlook. šŖµ Kitchen Insight: Donāt expect big stimulus recipesāWashingtonās pantry is politically divided and fiscally tight. š§ Eurozone Manufacturing Warms Up After 34 months in the freezer, the Eurozone manufacturing sector showed signs of thawing. The PMI hit 49.5 in Juneāstill technically contraction, but edging closer to expansion territory. š« Heat Check: Watch Germany and France for leadershipāindustrial rebound isnāt guaranteed, but ingredients are improving. š Markets Close H1 at Record Highs The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the first half of 2025 with new all-time highs, fueled by AI optimism, resilient earnings, and dovish central bank signals. The rallyās been sweetābut perhaps over-sweetened. š® Reality Check: Valuations are richātime to trim positions with frothy multiples and layer in some balance-sheet protein. š¤ Meta Fires Up Superintelligence Unit Meta merged its FAIR research lab and Llama team into a new āSuperintelligenceā division, signalling full-throttle ambition on AGI. Alexandr Wang (of Scale AI fame) is reportedly tapped to lead it. š² Tech Bite: Metaās no longer just in the raceāitās trying to own the kitchen. Capex will rise, and AI competition will heat up further. šØš³ Chinaās Chip IPOs Bring the Heat
Two Chinese AI chip startups, linked to government-backed efforts, are preparing $1.6 billion IPOs. With U.S. export curbs tightening, Beijing is accelerating the development of domestic alternatives. š¶ Geopolitical Garnish: Expect semiconductors to stay at the heart of U.S.āChina tensions. Hedge your exposure across jurisdictions. š§± Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Doubled to 50% The U.S. quietly doubled tariffs on key metal imports, citing national security risks. While aimed at China, the ripple hits suppliers globally and raises costs for industries from autos to appliances. š„ Sourcing Sidenote: Monitor margin compression in construction, infrastructure, and industrial manufacturing. š¬ OpenAI & Microsoft Tensions Simmer CEO Sam Altman acknowledged rising friction with Microsoft. While their partnership continues, differing visions around openness, monetization, and deployment pace are causing strategic rifts. š„ Partnership Prep: If the alliance unravels, downstream AI ecosystems (e.g., Azure, Copilot, plugin stacks) may realign rapidly. šļø M&S Suffers Cyber FlambĆ© Marks & Spencer was hit by a significant cyberattack, disrupting internal systems and e-commerce operations. Estimated losses amount to Ā£300M, and full restoration is not expected to be completed until August. š§Æ Security Slice: This is your reminderātech risk isn't just for tech firms. Cyber hygiene should be treated like cash flow. šļø G7 & NATO Turn Down the Global Grill Talks in Washington and Brussels aimed to cool tensions from the Middle East to the South China Sea. There were no headline deals, but coordinated messaging helped calm the geopolitical temperature. š Risk Radar: Markets welcomed the relative calm. But donāt mistake a pause in heat for long-term peace. |
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Flashpoint Forecast: Whatās Heating Up the Week Ahead |
This weekās kitchen features labor loafs, tariff marinades, and a fresh batch of global macro stewāslow-cooked with policy drizzle and earnings zest. š Tuesday, July 9 ā U.S. Payrolls & ADP Data Hit the Grill Markets are bracing for Juneās job count and unemployment rate. Expectations: a slowdown to ~110K jobs, and a tick up in unemployment to 4.3%. š Labor Loaf Forecast: A cooler print might grease the Fedās rate-cut pans. A hot one? Back in the freezer we go. š Tuesday, July 9 ā FOMC Minutes Drop the Spice Mix The Fedās June meeting minutes hit the tableāand everyoneās sniffing for signs of rate pivot seasoning or more hawkish heat. š Policy Palate: If Powellās still stirring in tariff-flavored inflation, donāt expect a dovish glaze just yet. š Monday, July 8 ā Eurozone Retail Sales Serve a Sentiment Check The blocās June sales numbers will show if European consumers are still nibbling or pushing the plate away. š Continental Course: Weak data may push the ECB toward early looseningāor send euro bulls running for the bread basket. š„ Tuesday, July 9 ā Tariff Pause Reaches Its Boiling Point Trumpās 90-day tariff freeze is set to expire. India, Japan, and the EU are all on the chopping block. Will he renew diplomacyāor turn up the trade fryer? š Trade Dish Watch: One wrong move, and weāre back to sizzling supply chains and reheated cost pressures. šø MondayāWednesday, July 8ā10 ā RBA & RBNZ Rate Decisions Central banks in Australia and New Zealand deliver their latest verdicts. Inflation and wage pressures are on the butcherās block. š Global Prep Note: A surprise cut could ripple through bond markets. If they hold, expect another round of cautious global seasoning. š¦ Friday Preview ā U.S. Banks Begin Earnings Season (July 14 Onward) The likes of JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Wells Fargo are starting to cook their Q2 results. Expect fresh takes on net interest margins, loan appetite, and credit exposure. š Street Tastebuds: If the loan growth is bland and credit provisions spicy, expect some seasoning shifts in financial stocks. |
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Head Chefs of the Week: From Monetary Marinades to AI Broils |
From central banks' slow-roasting policy to billionaires' stir-frying AI strategyāhereās who cranked up the burners this week: šŗšø Jerome Powell ā The Fedās Reluctant Roastmaster Dropped a spicy comment blaming Trumpās tariffs for inflation reheatāsaying he would've cut rates already if the political sauce hadnāt thickened. š„ Flavour Profile: Smoky restraint with a dash of deflection. Still cooking data before slicing rates. š¶ Mark Zuckerberg ā Silicon Valleyās Superintelligence Sommelier Launched Meta Superintelligence Labs, pulled in Scale AIās top brass, and set the AI kitchen on full boil. $14B in AI investment, and he's still planning more. š§ Garnish Game: Think AGI fusion with a side of acquisition heat. Heās not just playing chefāheās buying the whole cookbook. š¤ Sam Altman ā AIās Disrupted Dinner Host Acknowledged tension with Microsoft like a sous-chef mid-kitchen fightāwhile rivals poach staff with $100M side deals. The AI kitchen? Politely on fire. š„ Course Correction: Partnerships still standing, but the serving trays are wobbling. Strategic plating neededāfast. š The US Dollar ā This Weekās Slipping Ingredient Strategists forecast a continued July slide, citing tariff tremors, debt marinades, and Fed hesitation, already down 11% YTD. šø Currency Flavor Note: Itās not spoiledābut itās going soft. Expect fresh seasoning from global risk chefs. |
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The Closing Crust: Scorched Headlines & Sugary Speculations |
Slicked with ambition, scorched by tension. Bite carefully. š§ Meta fused FAIR + Llama into a superlab. Zuckās not racingāheās building the trackāWangās now head chef. š¤ OpenAIāMicrosoft drama simmers. Altmanās stirring tension, and the sauce is separating mid-service. š¹ļø NPCs got brains. Inworldās AI sidekicks now riff, joke, and steal your lootāemotionally and literally. š NASA + GPT? AI copilots are now space-tested. Houston just got automated. š Growth trimmed again. Global to 2.9%, U.S. to 1.4%āless soft landing, more economic sous-vide. š¢ļø Tariffs doubled. 50% on metals. No fanfareājust inflation baked in. šŖ Bitcoin hovered at $106K. Bulls hungry. Resistance is still medium-rare. |
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Exit Cocktail: Shaken Markets, Stirred Expectations |
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š„ Microsoft & OpenAI politely feudingāknives out, smiles on.
š¢ļø Tariffs doubled under the tableābon appĆ©tit, inflation.
š¼ļø Adobe, banks, and big oil stayed calmly plated.
šŖ Crypto? Still torching tastebudsājust on lower heat.
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And thatās the weekāserved hot from the Market Munchies kitchen. š§āš³ Powell deflected with spice, Zuck plated a superintelligence lab, and OpenAIās partnership stew is splitting mid-simmer. Tariffs are torching trade, banks have passed the stress test, and growth? Still stuck in a slow-cook cycle. The big bite? Markets are tiptoeing across a sizzling skilletārich in ambition, light on stability, and cooked just enough to keep you hungry. Until next servingā
Stay sharp. Stay spicy. And always leave room for dessert. šØš |
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