Tariff Truce Wobbles at Halfway Mark; Risk Sentiment Falters on Renewed Threats

Action Insight Weekly Report 5-24-25

Tariff Truce Wobbles at Halfway Mark; Risk Sentiment Falters on Renewed Threats

Trade war roared back into focus late last week, derailing fragile market sentiment already strained by concerns over the ballooning US deficit. The catalyst came in the form of a sharp threat from US President Donald Trump on European Union imports. This abrupt escalation shattered hopes that the 90-day truce period would lead to calmer trade diplomacy, and instead reignited fears of a broader trade war just as markets were struggling to absorb fiscal uncertainty.

US equities tumbled in response, with heavy losses across major indices, while European bourses weren’t spared either. Risk aversion swept through global markets, pushing investors toward traditional safe-haven assets.

Dollar, which had already been under pressure from Moody’s downgrade and debt sustainability concerns, took another hit and ended the week as the worst-performing major currency. Confidence in US assets appears increasingly fragile as both fiscal and trade risks deepen.

Aussie followed as the second weakest, burdened not just by global risk aversion but also by the dovish tone from RBA earlier in the week, while Loonie also suffered at the bottom.

In contrast, the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc surged to the top of the FX leaderboard, clearly benefiting from haven demand. Gold also staged a powerful rally, with its bullish momentum signaling deep market unease.

Euro and Sterling settled in the middle of the pack. While the Euro showed some vulnerability to Trump's tariff threat, it remained relatively supported. Sterling, meanwhile, was underpinned by a series of stronger-than-expected economic data, including upside surprises in inflation and retail sales. .....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD's up trend resumed by breaking through 1.3442 resistance last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.2706 to 1.3442 from 1.3138 at 1.3593, and then 100% projection at 1.3874. On the downside, below 1.3389 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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