A Whirlwind Week Leaves US Assets Reeling Amid Tariff Turmoil

Action Insight Weekly Report 4-12-24
A Whirlwind Week Leaves US Assets Reeling Amid Tariff Turmoil

It has been a brutally volatile week across global markets, driven by a whirlwind of US tariff implementations, abrupt reversals, and rapid retaliatons. Investors were left scrambling to make sense of the White House’s constantly shifting trade stance. We won’t attempt to recap every step of the tariff saga, when even members of the administration seemed unable to track the unfolding policy moves.

The most consequential outcome of the week was the broad-based pressure on US assets. The sharp selloff in Treasuries drew the most concern, raising alarms over whether the bedrock of the financial markets is beginning to erode. That said, while the jump in yields was certainly eye-catching, it has yet to cross the threshold into full-blown crisis territory.

US stocks, after plunging to their lowest levels in months mid-week, managed to stage a strong rebound. Key technical support levels held, keeping the long-term uptrend intact—for now. However, that doesn’t mean the risks are gone. If the mounting tariffs ultimately tip the US into recession, the bounce may prove to be nothing more than a bear market rally.

Dollar also struggled, ending as the week’s worst performer. Despite rising yields and some risk-off mood, neither provided the greenback any meaningful support. Dollar Index is now on the verge of resuming its broader medium-term downtrend.

In the broader forex markets, Sterling and Yen also underperformed. On the other end, Swiss Franc stood tall as the market’s safe-haven anchor, followed by Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Euro and Canadian Dollar ended the week in middle ground....

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USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD's fall from 1.4791 high continued last week and accelerated through 1.3946/76 key support zone. There is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.4791 to 1.4150 from 1.4414 at 1.3773. On the upside, break of 1.4150 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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