Euro Gains Momentum Despite ECB Rate Cut Speculations
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-25-24 |
Euro Gains Momentum Despite ECB Rate Cut Speculations |
Euro is gaining broadly today, even though there is no major fundamental news driving its ascent. Market expectations are mounting that ECB may cut interest rates as early as October, with HSBC projecting 25bps cuts at every meeting from October through April 2025. This would bring the deposit rate to 2.25%, which is considered close to neutral. These predictions are arising even amid cautious remarks from ECB officials. One factor behind Euro's rise could be the market's growing anticipation of aggressive rate cuts by Fed, , with futures markets pricing in nearly 60% chance of another 50bps cut in November. This suggests that, despite potential rate cuts by ECB in October, Fed's moves could outpace those of ECB for 2024. Additionally, Euro is gaining against Swiss Franc, as speculation mounts that the SNB might deliver a 50bps rate cut in its upcoming meeting tomorrow. Meanwhile, Euro's recovery appears to be driven more by technical factors, as it found support at a near-term fibonacci projection level.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1128; (P) 1.1155; (R1) 1.1206; More.... EUR/USD's rise from 1.0665 resumed by breaking 1.1200. Intraday bias is now on the upside to retest 1.1274 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. Next near term target will be 100% projection of 1.0776 to 1.1200 from 1.1001 at 1.1425. On the downside, below 1.1020 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Corporate Service Price Index Y/Y Aug | 2.70% | 2.70% | 2.80% | 2.70% | | 01:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Y/Y Aug | 2.70% | 2.70% | 3.50% | | 08:00 | CHF | UBS Economic Expectations Sep | -8.8 | -3.4 | | 14:00 | USD | New Home Sales Aug | 693K | 739K | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.3M | -1.6M |
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