Sterling Suffers as BoE Treads Cautiously with 25bps Rate Hike; Dollar Maintains Weekly Lead
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-3-23 |
Sterling Suffers as BoE Treads Cautiously with 25bps Rate Hike; Dollar Maintains Weekly Lead |
Sterling falls significantly today following BoE's decision to raise interest rates by only 25bps. This cautious, along with Governor Andrew Bailey's clear indication that a 50bps hike was not on the table, has resulted in substantial pressure on the Pound. Meanwhile, currency markets remain mixed elsewhere, with Canadian and US Dollar on the softer side, while Japanese Yen stages a recovery. Swiss Franc and Euro have seen some uplift due to purchases against the faltering Pound. Australian and New Zealand Dollars have exhibited mixed behavior. Despite a slight pullback in early US trading today, Dollar remains the top performer for the week. Euro and Swiss Franc follow closely, buoyed by Sterling's downfall. The Pound currently holds the position of the second-worst performer, only outdone by Australian Dollar's weakness, but has already overtaken New Zealand dollar. Technically, USD/CHF has been losing upside momentum as seen in 4 H MACD, as it approached 0.8818 support turned resistance. Rejection by 0.8818 will retain near term bearishness in the pair. Further break of 0.8863 support will indicate that larger down trend is resume to resume through 0.8551 low. If realized, that would be an early indicate of completion of Dollar's near term rebound. In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.66%. DAX is down -0.91%. CAC is down -0.76%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.490 at 2.584. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.68%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.49%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.58%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.63%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0257 to 0.654. |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2659; (P) 1.2732; (R1) 1.2784; More... GBP/USD's decline from 1.3141 extends to as low as 1.2618 so far today, and met 38.2% retracement of 1.1801 to 1.3141 at 1.2629 already. There is no sign of bottoming yet and intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained trading below 1.2678 support turned resistance will argue that it's already in a larger correction and target 1.2306 support next. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.2796 resistance, will retain near term bullishness and turn bias back to the upside. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 01:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) Jun | 11.32B | 10.50B | 11.79B | 10.50B | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Services PMI Jul | 54.1 | 52.5 | 53.9 | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Jun | 18.7B | 15.5B | 14.4B | | 06:30 | CHF | CPI M/M Jul | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.10% | | 06:30 | CHF | CPI Y/Y Jul | 1.60% | 1.50% | 1.70% | | 07:45 | EUR | Italy Services PMI Jul | 51.5 | 52.3 | 52.2 | | 07:50 | EUR | France Services PMI Jul F | 47.1 | 47.4 | 47.4 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Jul F | 52.3 | 52 | 52 | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Retail Sales M/M Jun | -0.20% | 0.00% | 0.70% | 0.60% | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Jul F | 50.9 | 51.1 | 51.1 | | 08:30 | GBP | Services PMI Jul F | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI M/M Jun | -0.40% | -0.20% | -1.90% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jun | -3.40% | -3.10% | -1.50% | -1.60% | | 11:00 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 5.25% | 5.25% | 5.00% | | 11:00 | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 8--0--1 | 7--0--2 | 7--0--2 | | 11:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul | -8.20% | 25.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 28) | 227K | 223K | 221K | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity Q2 P | 3.70% | 1.10% | -2.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Unit Labor Costs Q2 P | 1.60% | 2.70% | 4.20% | | 13:45 | USD | Services PMI Jul F | 52.4 | 52.4 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Services PMI Jul | 53 | 53.9 | | 14:00 | USD | Factory Orders M/M Jun | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 18B | 16B |
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