NFP Revisions Hits Dollar; But September Fed Cut Still Uncertain
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-5-24 |
NFP Revisions Hits Dollar; But September Fed Cut Still Uncertain |
Dollar weakened broadly after the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll report, though the initial selloff was far from decisive. June's employment data showcased a robust labor market with near-average job and solid earnings growth , coupled with just a slight uptick in unemployment rate. However, significant downward revisions to April and May's job growth numbers (-111k) suggest the labor market may not be as robust as initially reported. These mixed signals add some weight to the argument for a Fed rate cut in September, but they are not conclusive enough to cement such expectations. At the same time, Canadian Dollar faced pressure after weak employment data for June revealed contraction in jobs and a spike in the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, Sterling continues to ride high, maintaining broad firmness as political uncertainties clear up following the UK general elections, with Labour's landslide victory injected a sense of stability. Yen is attempting a recovery but lacks consistent buying momentum. Euro is mixed as traders look forward to French election runoff on Sunday... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0791; (P) 1.0804; (R1) 1.0825; More.... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.0665 is in progress to 1.0915 resistance first. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 1.0601. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 1.0775 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Household Spending Y/Y May | -1.80% | 0.20% | 0.50% | | 05:00 | JPY | Leading Economic Index May P | 111.1 | 111.1 | 110.9 | 0.10% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production M/M May | -2.50% | 0.20% | -0.10% | | 06:45 | EUR | France Trade Balance (EUR) May | -8.0B | -7.2B | -7.6B | | 06:45 | EUR | Industrial Output M/M May | -2.10% | -0.20% | 0.50% | 0.60% | | 07:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Jun | 711B | 718B | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Retail Sales M/M May | 0.40% | 0.20% | -0.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales M/M May | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls Jun | 206K | 180K | 272K | 218K | | 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate Jun | 4.10% | 4.00% | 4.00% | | 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jun | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 12:30 | CAD | Net Change in Employment Jun | -1.4K | 25.0K | 26.7K | | 12:30 | CAD | Unemployment Rate Jun | 6.40% | 6.30% | 6.20% | | 14:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI Jun | 53 | 52 |
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