Dollar Weakens Against European Majors Ahead of Key Economic and Political Events
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-3-24 |
Dollar Weakens Against European Majors Ahead of Key Economic and Political Events |
Dollar weakens notably against European majors in early US session, partially due to worse-than-expected ADP private job data. However, the primary reason seems to be traders becoming cautious ahead of several key events this week, including UK general elections, US non-farm payroll report, and French parliamentary elections. Traders are also mindful of thinner markets tomorrow due to US July 4 holiday. Some focus will shift to FOMC minutes due later in the session. June meeting's economic projections indicated a significant shift, with only one expected rate cut this year, compared to three projected in March. The debates behind this hawkish change, highlighted by 11 members favoring one or no cuts versus 8 members favoring two cuts, will be closely watched. Additionally, discussions about the raised long-term neutral rate will be analyzed for further insights... |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2638; (P) 1.2663; (R1) 1.2710; More... GBP/USD's rebound from 1.2612 resumes today and the break of 1.2705 resistance suggests that pull back from 1.2859 has completed. More importantly, rise from 1.2298 is not over. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.2859 high first. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.2612 support holds, in case of retreat. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M May | 0.60% | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 01:30 | AUD | Building Permits M/M May | 5.50% | 1.60% | -0.30% | 1.90% | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Services PMI Jun | 51.2 | 53.4 | 54 | | 07:45 | EUR | Italy Services PMI Jun | 53.7 | 53.9 | 54.2 | | 07:50 | EUR | France Services PMI Jun F | 49.6 | 48.8 | 48.8 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Jun F | 53.1 | 53.5 | 53.5 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Jun F | 52.8 | 52.6 | 52.6 | | 08:30 | GBP | Services PMI Jun F | 52.1 | 51.2 | 51.2 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI M/M May | -0.20% | 0.00% | -1.00% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI Y/Y May | -4.20% | -4.10% | -5.70% | | 11:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jun | 19.80% | -20.30% | | 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Jun | 150K | 158K | 152K | 157K | | 12:30 | CAD | Trade Balance (CAD) May | -1.9B | -0.8B | -1.0B | | 12:30 | USD | Trade Balance (USD) May | -75.1B | -76.0B | -74.6B | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 28) | 238K | 235K | 233K | 234K | | 13:45 | USD | Services PMI Jun F | 55.1 | 55.1 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Services PMI Jun | 52.5 | 53.8 | | 14:00 | USD | Factory Orders M/M May | 0.30% | 0.70% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.4M | 3.6M | | 16:00 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 29B | 52B | | 18:00 | USD | FOMC Minutes |
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