Loonie Rebounds on Strong Jobs Data, Sterling Hit by GDP Miss

Action Insight Mid-Day 7-11-25

Loonie Rebounds on Strong Jobs Data, Sterling Hit by GDP Miss

Canadian Dollar staged an impressive rebound after June’s employment report far outpaced expectations, reviving hopes that BoC can stay on hold despite mounting trade pressures. The release comes just after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping 35% tariffs on Canadian imports, which initially drove the Loonie lower.

With interest rates sitting at 2.75%—a level seen as largely neutral, today's’s data gives BoC additional justification to delay any further policy action. Policymakers are likely to wait and evaluate the full effects of the tariffs before committing to the next move.

Meanwhile, in the UK, recession risks are rising after GDP contracted for a second straight month. The economic miss raises doubts about BoE’s current path of gradual, quarterly rate cuts. Market pricing now reflects over 75% odds of a 25-basis-point BoE cut in August. BoE had projected 0.25% GDP growth in Q2, but unless June’s GDP rebounds sharply, a quarterly contraction is now a real possibility.

On the FX front, Aussie remains the top performer of the week. while Dollar and Swiss Franc are next in line. Yen is stuck at the bottom, with Pound and Euro also under pressure. Loonie’s rebound keeps it in the middle, alongside Kiwi......

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USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3636; (P) 1.3666; (R1) 1.3692; More...

USD/CAD retreated after a brief spike to 1.3729 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Overall, consolidation pattern from 1.3538 could still extend. Above 1.3729 will target 1.3797 resistance and possibly above. On the downside, however, break of 1.3637 minor support will bring retest of 1.3538/55 support zone instead.

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

Canada’s Economy Surprises With a Healthy Job Gain in June 

Markets Again in Risk-on/Risk-off Mode

UK GDP Contracts, Pound Dips

US Dollar Strengthens Following Trump’s Tariff Decision

USD/JPY Climbs as Yen Struggles Amid Trade Tensions

Hong Kong Stocks Rally on China Stimulus Hopes, AUD/USD (Chart of the Day)

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ PMI Jun 48.8 47.5 47.4
06:00 GBP GDP M/M May -0.10% 0.10% -0.30%
06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M May -1% -0.10% -0.90% -0.70%
06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y May 0.30% 0.40% 0.40% 1.30%
06:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M May -0.90% 0% -0.60%
06:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y May -0.30% 0.10% -0.30% 0.30%
06:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) May -21.7B -21.1B -23.2B -22.4B
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Jun 83.1K 0.9K 8.8K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Jun 6.90% 7.10% 7%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M May 12.00% -1.50% -6.60%