Dollar Stays Weak as Traders Weigh Hawkish PCE and Dovish Spending Signals
| Action Insight Mid-Day 6-27-25 |
Dollar Stays Weak as Traders Weigh Hawkish PCE and Dovish Spending Signals |
Dollar enters the US session mixed, as markets digest a batch of data offering signals to both sides of the policy debate. The greenback is seeing additional selling against Euro and Swiss Franc, but recovering modestly against commodity-linked currencies. Core PCE inflation rose faster than expected in May, providing Fed hawks with further justification for holding off on rate cuts in the near term. But disappointing personal income and spending data, both of which declined on the month, bolster the case for rate reductions later in the year, particularly after tariff uncertainty resolves. With US futures holding firm, markets appear more inclined to focus on the soft demand data as a rationale for easier policy ahead. On the trade front, China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed a new framework agreement with the US aimed at easing tensions over tech restrictions and rare earth exports. The framework outlines mutual concessions: China will expedite export approvals under its control regime, while the US is set to roll back a swath of existing curbs. The announcement aligns with comments from US President Donald Trump on Thursday referencing a recently signed deal with Beijing, later clarified by White House officials as an implementation mechanism for the Geneva agreement...... |
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7970; (P) 0.8012; (R1) 0.8044; More…. USD/CHF's decline is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Current down trend should target 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757 next. On the upside, above 0.8017 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 0.8214 resistance to bring another fall. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Y/Y Jun | 3.10% | 3.40% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jun | 3.10% | 3.40% | 3.60% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Jun | 3.10% | 3.30% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate May | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y May | 2.20% | 2.40% | 3.30% | 3.50% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Jun | 94 | 95.5 | 94.8 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services Sentiment Jun | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jun | -12 | -9.9 | -10.3 | -10.4 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun F | -15.3 | -15.3 | -15.3 | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Apr | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M May | -0.40% | 0.20% | 0.80% | 0.70% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending May | -0.10% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M May | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y May | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.10% | 2.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M May | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y May | 2.70% | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.60% | | 14:00 | USD | UoM Consumer Sentiment Jun F | 60.5 | 60.5 | | 14:00 | USD | UoM 1-year Inflation Expectations Jun F | 5.10% | 5.10% |
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