Dollar Stabilizes After Slide as Calm Returns to Markets
Action Insight Mid-Day 6-25-25 |
Dollar Stabilizes After Slide as Calm Returns to Markets |
Wednesday brought a lull in FX volatility as Dollar’s selloff eased, though it remained broadly under pressure for the week. The geopolitical backdrop is calmer, with the Israel-Iran ceasefire appearing stable for now. Trade talks seemed to be on hold, and with no major data releases on deck, markets are drifting into the second half of the week awaiting fresh signals. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s second day of testimony will garner attention, but few expect new revelations. His message Tuesday emphasized policy caution amid tariff uncertainty, and reiterated that inflation must remain anchored to support labor market strength. The path of interest rates remains clouded by unanswered questions on how deeply and persistently tariffs will feed into prices. Following dovish signals from Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Waller, markets briefly speculated on a possible July rate cut. But a series of pushbacks from other Fed officials has brought expectations back to earth. The probability of a July cut has cooled to around 20%, with traders now placing 85% odds on a move in September—still contingent on upcoming data, particularly next week’s June non-farm payrolls. Currency markets reflect this recalibration. Dollar remains weak but has edged off its lows, now the second-worst performer of the week after Loonie. Yen is not far behind as the third worst. Swiss Franc continues to lead, followed by the Pound and Kiwi. Euro and Aussie are holding in the middle of the pack..... |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3524; (P) 1.3586; (R1) 1.3678; More... Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the upside despite today's slight retreat. Rally from 1.2099 is resuming, and should target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 1.3369 support holds, even in case of deeper pullback. | |
GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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22:45 | NZD | Trade Balance (NZD) May | 1235M | 1060M | 1426M | 1285M | 23:50 | JPY | Corporate Service Price Index Y/Y May | 3.30% | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.40% | 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Summary of Opinions | 01:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Y/Y May | 2.10% | 2.40% | 2.40% | 08:00 | CHF | UBS Economic Expectations Jun | -2.1 | -22 | 14:00 | USD | New Home Sales May | 692K | 743K | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.2M | -11.5M |
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