Euro Rallies on Inflation Surprise, US PCE Data Bolsters Stocks

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-31-24

Euro Rallies on Inflation Surprise, US PCE Data Bolsters Stocks

Euro surges broadly today after Eurozone inflation data showed larger than expected re-acceleration in May. While this increase doesn't shift the consensus that ECB will proceed with a rate cut next week, it significantly dampens any remaining expectations for a subsequent cut in July. Market speculation now leans towards the possibility of only two ECB rate cuts this year, rather than the previously anticipated three.

Amidst these developments, Euro's rally is overshadowed by stronger performances from New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar, driven by a robust rebound in risk markets following the release of US. PCE inflation data. The data revealed that both headline and core inflation annual rates remained stable, aligning with forecasts. However, it was the slightly lower-than-expected monthly increase in core PCE that ignited a positive response from the markets, prompting a jump in US futures and a corresponding decline in the 10-year yield...

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0798; (P) 1.0822; (R1) 1.0855; More....

Focus is now on 1.0894 in EUR/USD with today's strong bounce. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.0601, and target 61.8% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0894 from 1.0788 at 1.0969. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.0788 support holds, in case of retreat.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y May 2.20% 1.80%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food Y/Y May 1.90% 1.90% 1.60%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food & Energy Y/Y May 1.70% 1.80%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Apr 2.60% 2.60% 2.60%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Apr P -0.10% 1.50% 4.40%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Apr 2.40% 1.90% 1.20% 1.10%
01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Apr 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
01:30 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI May 49.5 50.5 50.4
01:30 CNY NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI May 51.1 51.5 51.2
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Apr 13.90% -0.20% -12.80%
06:00 EUR Germany Import Price M/M Apr 0.70% 0.50% 0.40%
06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Apr -1.20% 0.10% 1.80% 2.60%
06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Apr 2.70% 0.20% -0.10% -0.20%
06:45 EUR France GDP Q/Q Q1 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Apr 61K 62K 61K
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Apr 0.10% 0.40% 0.70%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y May P 2.60% 2.50% 2.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y May P 2.90% 2.70% 2.70%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Mar 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
12:30 USD Personal Income M/M Apr 0.30% 0.30% 0.50%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Apr 0.20% 0.30% 0.80% 0.70%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Apr 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Apr 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr 2.80% 2.80% 2.80%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI May 40 37.9