CAD Sinks after CPI, NZD Await RBNZ
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-21-24 |
CAD Sinks after CPI, NZD Await RBNZ |
Canadian Dollar sees a broad decline in early US session due to growing speculation about rate cut by BoC in the near future. April's headline CPI slowed as expected, despite a significant increase in gasoline prices. Core inflation measures also showed more progress in disinflation than anticipated. While it remains uncertain if this progress will be enough to prompt BoC to ease policy at next meeting, speculation is likely to intensify ahead of June 5 meeting. Meanwhile, New Zealand Dollar followed Loonie as the second weakest performer of the day. Attention is now turning to RBNZ rate decision scheduled for tomorrow, with most market participants expecting the central bank to hold the rate steady at 5.50%. While many analysts see November as the likely timing for the first rate cut, this view is not universally held. The upcoming OCR forecasts from RBNZ will be closely scrutinized, particularly to see if they adjust to remove the possibility of another rate hike. However, it remains uncertain whether RBNZ will move up the timeline for the first rate cut from next year... |
| USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3602; (P) 1.3618; (R1) 1.3641; More... USD/CAD recovered notably today but stays below 1.3689 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Strong bounce from current level will confirm support by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3628). Break of 1.3689 minor resistance will argue that correction from 1.3845 has completed, and bring stronger rally to 1.3761 resistance. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already, and turn outlook bearish. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence May | -0.30% | -2.40% | | 01:30 | AUD | RBA Minutes | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany PPI M/M Apr | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany PPI Y/Y Apr | -3.30% | -3.20% | -2.90% | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Mar | 35.8B | 30.2B | 29.5B | 28.9B | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Mar | 17.3B | 19.9B | 17.9B | 16.7B | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI M/M Apr | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.60% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Y/Y Apr | 2.70% | 2.70% | 2.90% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Median Y/Y Apr | 2.60% | 2.70% | 2.80% | 2.90% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Trimmed Y/Y Apr | 2.90% | 2.90% | 3.10% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Common Y/Y Apr | 2.60% | 2.80% | 2.90% |
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