Loonie Lifts on Hot Core Inflation, But BoC Cut Still in Play
| Action Insight Daily Mid-Day 5-20-25 |
Loonie Lifts on Hot Core Inflation, But BoC Cut Still in Play |
Canadian Dollar firmed modestly in early US trading after inflation data showed a sharper-than-expected pickup in core price pressures. While headline CPI slowed to 1.7% in April, the drop was largely due to a steep decline in energy prices. In contrast, underlying inflation picked up pace, with core measures such as CPI-median, trim, and common all rising more than expected, driven in part by higher grocery and travel costs. The market response was swift. Traders pared back expectations for a BoC rate cut at its June 4 meeting, with swaps now pricing in around a 48% chance, down from 65% prior to the release. Still, attention will now turn to Canada’s Q1 GDP report on May 30, which is likely to be the key data point in determining whether BoC will proceed with a cut or hold off amid resurging inflation pressures. In the currency markets, Loonie is currently leading gains for the day, followed by Swiss Franc and Yen. Meanwhile, Aussie is the day’s worst performer, weighed down by RBA’s dovish rate cut and downgrade in inflation and growth projections. Kiwi is the second weakest, and then Sterling. Euro and Dollar are positioning in the middle.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1180; (P) 1.1234; (R1) 1.1296; More... Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1292 resistance should indicate that correction from 1.1572 has already completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.1572 next. However, sustained break of 1.1039 will bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 1.0709 next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 01:15 | CNY | 1-Y Loan Prime Rate | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.10% | | 04:30 | CNY | 5-Y Loan Prime Rate | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.60% | | 04:30 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 3.85% | 3.85% | 4.10% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany PPI M/M Apr | -0.60% | -0.30% | -0.70% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany PPI Y/Y Apr | -0.90% | -0.60% | -0.20% | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Mar | 50.9B | 35.9B | 34.3B | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI M/M Apr | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Y/Y Apr | 1.70% | 1.60% | 2.30% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Median Y/Y Apr | 3.20% | 2.90% | 2.90% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Trimmed Y/Y Apr | 3.10% | 2.80% | 2.80% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Common Y/Y Apr | 2.50% | 2.30% | 2.30% |
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