Dollar Eases as Trade Boost Fades, Sterling Finds Support on Wages and BoE Rhetoric
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-13-25 |
Dollar Eases as Trade Boost Fades, Sterling Finds Support on Wages and BoE Rhetoric |
Dollar softened slightly in early US trading today, though the move appears more related to a fading post-trade-deal rally than any direct reaction to economic data. While April’s inflation report showed encouraging progress on headline disinflation, the core CPI reading held firm, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky. That dynamic should keep Fed cautious, and today's market reaction suggests the data did little to shift expectations meaningfully. The more optimistic takeaway, however, is that recent tariffs have yet to significantly lift inflation. In contrast, Sterling is gaining some traction, particularly against Euro, following solid UK wage data. Despite signs of softening in overall employment, wage growth remains robust, with average earnings still running well above levels consistent with BoE's 2% inflation target. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill reinforced that concern by warning that more aggressive or sustained policy action may be needed to bring inflation under control. His remarks have helped underpin Sterling sentiment. Overall in the currency markets, Aussie has overtaken Dollar to become the week's top performer. Kiwi and Loonie are also firm. At the other end of the spectrum, Yen continues to struggle, while Swiss Franc and Euro are also soft.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1022; (P) 1.1132; (R1) 1.1199; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. Overall, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1380 will suggest that the correction from 1.1572 has completed, and bring retest of 1.1572. However, sustained break of 1.1039 will dampen this view and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0709 next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Summary of Opinions | | 23:50 | JPY | Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Apr | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.80% | | 00:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence May | 2.20% | -6% | | 01:30 | AUD | NAB Business Conditions Apr | 2 | 4 | | 01:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence Apr | -1 | -3 | | 06:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Apr | 5.2K | 22.3K | 18.7K | -16.9K | | 06:00 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Mar | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Mar | 5.50% | 5.20% | 5.60% | 5.70% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Mar | 5.60% | 5.70% | 5.90% | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment May | 25.2 | 9.8 | -14 | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Current Situation May | -82 | -77 | -81.2 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment May | 11.6 | -4.4 | -18.5 | | 10:00 | USD | NFIB Business Optimism Index Apr | 95.8 | 94.5 | 97.4 | | 12:30 | USD | CPI M/M Apr | 0.20% | 0.30% | -0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Apr | 2.30% | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Apr | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Apr | 2.80% | 2.80% | 2.80% |
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