Aussie Inflation Set to Cement RBA May Cut; Month-End Calm Prevails

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-29-25

Aussie Inflation Set to Cement RBA May Cut; Month-End Calm Prevails

The forex markets are generally holding steady today, with all major pairs and crosses bounded within yesterday's range. While month-end lull is at play, caution is also dominating sentiment as traders prepare for a heavy barrage of economic data scheduled from Wednesday through Friday. Key reports include US GDP and non-farm payrolls, along with Eurozone GDP and CPI flash estimates.

Also, in the upcoming Asian session, Australia’s Q1 inflation report will be a major highlight. Focus will be on whether the closely watched trimmed mean CPI falls back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time since 2021. If realized, this would solidify expectations for a 25bps rate cut in May, a view that has become the base case for three of Australia’s big four banks.

Some speculation persists about the possibility of a larger 50bps cut by RBA, especially given mounting trade risks. But many analysts argue that such a move would risk sending an unnecessary panic signal to markets. Still, any deep downside surprise in tomorrow's inflation data could quickly shift those odds.....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8159; (P) 0.8239; (R1) 0.8280; More….

No change in USD/CHF's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 0.8333 will resume the rebound from 0.8038 short term bottom. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482. On the downside, below 0.8196 minor support will bring retest of 0.8038. Firm break there will resume larger down trend.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Apr -0.10% -0.20% -0.40%
06:00 EUR Germany GfK Consumer Sentiment May -20.6 -26 -24.5 -24.3
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Mar 3.60% 4.00% 4.00% 3.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Apr 93.6 94.5 95.2 95
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr -11.2 -10.7 -10.6 -10.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Apr 1.4 2.4 2.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr F -16.7 -16.7 -16.7
12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) Mar P -162.0B -146.3B -147.9B
12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories Mar P 0.50% 0.70% 0.30%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Y/Y Feb 4.80% 4.70%
13:00 USD Housing Price Index M/M Feb 0.30% 0.20%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Apr 87.1 92.9